House Passes Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill'— It Now Faces These Hurdles In The Senate: GOP Strategist

Forbes Breaking News

GOP strategist and Executive Director of Principles First Brittany Martinez joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the House narrowly voting to pass the budget bill, and what challenges await the legislation as it makes its way to the Senate.

Transcript

00:00Hi everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now

00:07is Republican strategist and executive director of Principles First, Brittany Martinez. Brittany,

00:12thank you so much for joining me. Thank you for having me back. The House passed President

00:17Trump's big, beautiful bill in a narrow vote after a marathon overnight debate. And if you

00:23and I were talking this time yesterday, the chances of this happening, not only just a vote,

00:27but it actually passing through the House before that self-imposed Memorial Day deadline,

00:32it wasn't looking too good. So what do you think, what do you make of the bill passing through the

00:37House? Well, a few things immediately come to mind. So the first is that we do have

00:42a Republican White House, House and Senate. So that means regardless, this bill was going to pass in

00:47some iteration. So yes, I'm not surprised that it did pass ultimately, but I will also point out,

00:53and I think this is really important for viewers to think about is that it took, it was a months

00:59long slog for Republicans to get to this point. A lot of late nights into early mornings, including

01:04today when it was voted on at seven in the morning in the dead of the night is when, you know, the

01:09Congress is sort of voting and talking about and trying to move this legislation forward. I don't

01:13think that's a great luck for Congress, for Republicans, but also like, please remember that

01:20as soon as Trump won last year, what was the big talking point? He has a mandate. Clearly to me,

01:27this isn't a mandate. It's a tough and close Congress. It was a 12, 215 to 214. And it's a

01:34slim majority in the Senate too. And that's going to be a battle as well. So I think that they have

01:38to be humble about it, the Trump administration and realizing you need to work with their colleagues

01:42across the aisle as best they can to move this legislation forward.

01:45And I want to talk about where some of those divisions really were. Some Republicans,

01:51more moderate Republicans from blue states like New York wanted an increase in that saw cap.

01:56Other hardline GOP members wanted more steeper cuts. They also wanted to not see so much being

02:03added onto the deficit. There were also concerns about Medicaid cuts. I mean, this was a really

02:08remarkable turnaround for Speaker Johnson. How was he able to wrangle in these almost like cats

02:15and get everything, something for everyone?

02:19I think John Boehner famously said that being Speaker of the House was like herding cats. So yes,

02:24I think that's the perfect analogy to what we're seeing here with Congress and House Republicans

02:27in this specific situation. But yes, he did a good job. He was able to pull it off. I think a lot of

02:34people often underestimate Johnson and he's proven time and time again to be able to deliver

02:39the agenda that he wants on behalf of House Republicans and Trump. And so, you know, good for

02:45him on doing that. I think ultimately we'll see what the Senate does with this bill. I'm sure that they

02:49will have their own thoughts and then it will come back to the House and they will have to resolve

02:52those differences. But this is absolutely a win for him, even though it is a tight margin.

02:56And it's a compromise. I mean, no one gets everything that they want, especially in the

03:02Republican Party. I mean, no Democrat voted for this, but it's an over 1000 page bill. So there's

03:07something for everybody to run back to their district and say, hey, this is what I got for

03:11you. Promises made promises, kept that type of Republican rhetoric there. But let's talk about

03:17some of the things that this does. The bill expands and extends 2017 tax cuts, eliminates taxes on tips

03:24and overtime. It gives more border security funding. It's overall touted as President Trump's

03:29agenda. As a Republican, what do you like from this? Well, I think there's things like the child

03:36tax credit. I think that's important. You know, there's also now a new fund for children that were

03:40born from the end of last year. I think it's through 2029. And so I think that's going to help

03:45families, especially young families, sort of get a head start for their children. But some of the

03:50issues, and I know this wasn't your question, but I think some of the issues that we're going to

03:53maybe see Democrats run on, especially during midterms, is that Medicaid step that you're

03:57talking about. And, you know, early indications, and we'll see what actually happens, but said that

04:02this could potentially cut Medicaid for 7 trillion, excuse me, 7 million Americans. And Trump has said

04:08he didn't want to make cuts to Medicaid besides waste, fraud and abuse. He said three words. Those

04:13were the three words. And I think that we're going to have to see what that ultimately looks like,

04:17because Medicaid and Medicare have often been a rallying cry for the left. And I think this is

04:23probably going to be one of those things that helps them no longer be Democrats in disarray and

04:27get it together a little bit, at least enough to say to the American people, you know what,

04:31this is what it's done. And this is how it's going to hurt you. I do want to talk about the

04:36politics of this bill, because as you said, the CBO estimated it would cut Medicaid spending

04:40by close to $700 billion. It could also lead to as many as 7.6 million Americans uninsured over the

04:47next decade. You also noted that this was debated in the dead of night. So I'm curious about the optics

04:52there. And reportedly, estimates are suggesting this will make the poorest poorer and the richest

04:58richer in this country. And with those billions in snap cuts and cuts to Medicaid, estimates show

05:03that the lowest earning households will reportedly see a decrease in resources, while the highest

05:08income households will see more resources. So what do you make of the optics of this bill overall? I

05:14mean, did Republicans just hand Democrats ads for the midterms? We'll see what comes out of this bill.

05:20But I do think that Democrats obviously have an opportunity to spin this here. And especially

05:25and I think we've talked about this, Brittany, you know, it's when did Republicans become

05:28the party to spend all this money? I think we're kind of blowing money like Democrats are supposed

05:32to be the party of fiscal responsibility. And this is estimated to essentially cost the government

05:37$4 trillion over the next decade. That's a lot of money when we're already $36 trillion in debt.

05:44And a lot of that came from the COVID times. And so concerns with that as well, in case there's any

05:49sort of national emergency, which knock on wood, hopefully we never see anything like the likes of

05:54COVID again. But we need to be smart about the way that we are spending our money. And when we're

05:59going to potentially be going trillions of dollars in debt because of this bill, that's why you have

06:03some of those fiscal hawks in the Freedom Caucus who are concerned about it. And I think that if

06:07there's pushback from the Senate, the holdouts have made it clear like Chip Roy that this could

06:13potentially be problematic for him. He's not just going to rubber stamp it, I believe is what the

06:17terminology he used. And Republicans have long been really just rallying against adding to the

06:24national debt. And this adds, as you said, trillions to it. I mean, can Republicans say,

06:28let's say this passes as is obviously, I mean, undoubtedly it won't because it's going to the Senate now.

06:33But even if it adds trillions of dollars to the debt, can Republicans longer say,

06:38hey, we don't want to add to the deficit because this bill that they are backing does?

06:45I think so. I think that would probably be the way to go about it. It's the one big,

06:49beautiful bill, as it's literally called, which I think is hilarious. It's not just a fun phrase

06:55anymore. It's not the actual name of the bill. You can look it up at congress.com. And yeah,

07:00I think it is one big bill. I think that there's a way for them to say, listen, this is where we're

07:05putting a lot of our eggs in this basket. This is where a lot of the spending and the deficit is

07:10going to go towards. And we're going to be more conservative when it comes to finances moving

07:15forward. But I would say this is probably an early indication of maybe where Congress will be going

07:21under the Trump administration. And something that's been said about him is that he's a conservative

07:26populist. So meaning that he is very pro sort of the social programs that put money in Americans

07:32pocket. However, the problem with that is that it adds to the deficit and could have potentially

07:37some long term effects when it comes to those sorts of things. And President Trump met with

07:42members of the House GOP earlier this week. And he that was described as a pep talk. He went in there.

07:50He did call Thomas Massey a grandstander over not supporting the bill. He also said that he should be

07:55voted out. Thomas Massey seemingly unmoved by this because he did not vote for the bill in in the vote

08:01this morning. I mean, what are what are your thoughts on that sort of strong arming?

08:06I think that and Brittany, correct me if I'm wrong, you know, I'd say this more as a rhetorical question

08:11is, is this standard practice for sitting presidents of the United States to say to members of Congress who

08:18are sitting members of Congress like do this or we're going to get folks to primary you? That seems a

08:23little bit not passing the smell test to me. I think that's a little strange, don't you?

08:29Well, I've in all of my years of covering politics, I've never seen a president say that,

08:34hey, you don't agree with me. You're out of here. You should be voted out. You're a grandstander.

08:38When Thomas Massey said he was, you know, I mean, it's not like Thomas Massey has flip flopped on

08:42these positions. These are long held positions. But Speaker Johnson, he was celebrating this.

08:48He called this a historic vote. He was really touting this legislation. But he said he knows

08:52that this isn't the end of the road here. This still needs to go to the Senate. And now it's in

08:56the Senate's hands. And what do you make of that? I mean, what changes do you think are going to

09:01happen? How tough of a road do you think this is? I've been reading reports and, you know, I have

09:07friends in the Senate just kind of following the way that they interact with the Trump administration

09:12so far this year is I think that they have quite an uphill battle ahead of them. I don't know. I

09:19think it'll ultimately pass again. It's a Republican Congress fully and White House. So we'll get some

09:24iteration of this bill. But I do think that some of those Republican senators who have had some

09:29issues with the Trump administration are going to push back on certain things. I think we probably

09:34won't see any Democrats voting for it. Or if we do, it'll be like one or two. But the thing we have

09:40to think about is that the majority in the Senate for Republicans is bigger than the majority in the

09:44Senate for the House. And they already had a hard enough time. So I can see that also happening

09:48when it comes to the Senate this time around. What do you think are some of those biggest

09:53concerns here? Do you think it's the cuts to SNAP, the cuts to Medicaid, adding trillions to the debt?

09:59I mean, where do you think the toughest conversations are going to be in the Senate debate?

10:04I think it's a combination of all those things. I definitely think that it's adding the trillions

10:10of dollars. I've seen some senators come out and say that they have problems with that.

10:14When it comes to SNAP, I think that's probably going to be an issue as well. And, you know, again,

10:18Republicans are in the majority. But I've already seen Chuck Schumer call out SALT and issues with

10:24that and said, New York Republicans should be ashamed. And, you know, Mike Lawler very quickly

10:29pounced on that and said, you didn't add one dollar towards SNAP, excuse me, towards SALT when you

10:36had everything. And we've been able to quadruple it for the American people. And so I think that

10:41that will probably be the narrative that Democrats push. And I think that Republicans will probably

10:46be the most concerned about some of the fiscal things in this bill.

10:49And that was an interesting argument that Chuck Schumer brought against Mike Lawler because Mike

10:54Lawler seemingly held the line in because they were not trying to give an inch on the SALT demands.

11:01He said, we're not quitting. And he got that $40,000 cap. He got it raised four times. And I

11:06want to talk about Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer because he voted for the Republicans' stopgap

11:11spending bill in March. This ultimately, as we remember, averted a government shutdown.

11:15But it left many House Democrats feeling this deep sense of betrayal because this was an 11th hour vote

11:21by Schumer. Do you think that there's going to be any Democratic support in the Senate for this?

11:27Do you think Schumer's going to support it? I mean, what do you think that looks like?

11:32I think I can see a world where there is some Democrat support, potentially maybe in a red state,

11:38a purple state, those who have an upcoming election in 2026 and need to be careful,

11:44especially in a state where Trump won, but maybe they're a Democrat, right? I think those are the

11:50folks that we should be paying attention to who could potentially vote for this bill. But regardless,

11:54I don't really see it being a grand bipartisan effort. I think it'll be one or two senators.

12:01And President Trump, he obviously celebrated this House when they got it before Memorial Day. That

12:06was their self-imposed deadline. President Trump calls this arguably the most significant piece of

12:11legislation that will ever be signed. What do you make of that characterization? Do you think,

12:17how much of an impact do you think that this legislation is going to have?

12:20I think it will have a big impact, especially on his legacy. When we were talking about the

12:27funds that are being given to newborn children, they had called it the MAGA fund and it was an

12:33acronym. And then they decided later on in the 11th hour to call it the Trump thing. I think that is

12:39really narcissistic, but also coming from a PR perspective, he wants people to remember after

12:45he's long gone from being president of the United States, that this is the Trump money. And so when

12:51you look at those sorts of things, I think they've been very intentional about the way that they're

12:55going about it. Now, will this be great or will this be bad? I think time will tell. But when they've

13:01been able to extend the tax cuts from 2017, which Republicans have pretty much said that are a good

13:08thing over all of these years, and it was important to continue. I think that that's going to be part of

13:14his legacy is the Trump tax cuts that they that's what they've called them.

13:19Well, I know as this bill makes its way through the Senate, as there are debates on Medicaid,

13:24adding to the debt and everything in between, I hope you come back on and join me and break it down.

13:30Brittany Martinez, I always appreciate our conversations. Thanks for joining me.

13:34Thanks for having me.

13:44Thanks for having me.

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