- 5/24/2025
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00:00Time to play some Major League Baseball, buy or sell bright and early on this Tuesday morning on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:09We said hot topics for DRS here at MLB, buy or sell in this second hour to keep the heat up there as it was in our opening hour discussing those NFL owner meetings.
00:21And I think topic number one will do just that.
00:25Let's talk about one of the greatest young arms in Major League Baseball at this moment.
00:29Of course, that is Paul Skeens, a 2-4-4 ERA so far this season and year number two, his first full year with the Buccos in the bigs.
00:3862 strikeouts, 62 and two-thirds in 10 starts.
00:43The Pirates as a team are 3-7 because the team around Paul Skeens, not very good, especially offensively.
00:51Boy, they cannot hit.
00:53Now, 24 consecutive games as they got beat by the Reds yesterday at PNC Park, by the way, 7-1, 24 straight games.
01:02The Buccos have scored fewer than five runs.
01:05And yet, despite how his team is failing him, Paul Skeens still the favorite to win National League Cy Young at a plus 200 number after winning Rookie of the Year around the NL a season ago.
01:18Here is the question.
01:20Buy or sell?
01:22The Pirates should trade Paul Skeens this season.
01:28Well, I buy it.
01:30Most people will buy it.
01:31Fans around the Major League Baseball should absolutely buy it.
01:34The organization will sell it by going, wait a second, we probably got at least six more years out of this guy really cheap.
01:39Let's use him up, burn him out, and trade him at the deadline before we actually have to pay him here.
01:45But for the good of Major League Baseball and for the good of the pitchers in Major League Baseball that are coming up, absolutely this should happen.
01:51Understand this.
01:52Like, the perspective is different.
01:54Like, if you're the number one overall draft pick in Major League Baseball and you are a left fielder, you say, you know what, I don't mind going to Pittsburgh there because I'm going to hone my skills.
02:02I'll get brought up to Major League Baseball.
02:03And by the time I'm 25 years old, I'll probably be a free agent.
02:06I'll be able to make a lot of money around there because that's right in the middle of your prime.
02:10You might argue that, well, Donnie, isn't that the same thing for the pitcher 25, 26 years old in their prime?
02:15Yes.
02:16But if I'm throwing 200 plus innings from the time I'm 21 or 22 through 26 and got nothing out of it, yeah, I might have got some awards for the Cy Young.
02:24That's great.
02:25But you are pitching and using your bullets there in your arm in hopes that you will be pitching into October, which is always the goal to win a championship.
02:34The goal in Pittsburgh is not to win a championship.
02:37The goal in Pittsburgh is not to even win baseball games.
02:39The goal in Pittsburgh is just to say, I'm an owner.
02:42How much money can I steal and laugh at my fan base by not giving them anything to cheer about?
02:48But we'll be rewarded because we're bad every year with high draft picks that we can turn into draft capital, never win anything and keep the cycle going on and on and on.
02:58Can you imagine Paul Schemes right now, as young as he is, pitching for, let's just say, the New York Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs, any team out there that gives any damn worth of winning and is willing to spend money here?
03:12Or how much fun Paul Schemes would be?
03:14It's the same thing, Ben, we talk about with Mike Trout.
03:17Mike Trout was thought of as maybe going down as the single best baseball player in the history of baseball.
03:23But now he's injured and we understand that.
03:25But the reason I'm going is, wouldn't Mike Trout have been so much fun getting a decade plus every year in the playoffs to watch the best player on the biggest stage?
03:32We never got to see that.
03:34And apparently, like, maybe Paul Schemes cares more because he's saying, like, he wants to win.
03:37Mike Trout seemed like, fine, like, hey, man, keep me out of spotlight, pay me all this money.
03:41I don't want to do any commercials for Major League Baseball or promote the sport.
03:44And maybe that's just the way he is.
03:46But we're getting robbed of seeing great players.
03:48Can you imagine, Ben, back in the 1980s into the early 1990s, where the Chicago Bulls never paid any money for the rest of their payroll and their team here, and Michael Jordan never made the playoffs?
04:01How much would be robbed?
04:02I'm not saying Schemes is Michael Jordan.
04:04But you get the point I'm trying to make.
04:06We want to watch the best players at their position in the biggest moments.
04:10And with Pittsburgh, he's never going to get a single moment there to do that.
04:15That's a shame.
04:16Absolutely, they should move him for the good of Major League Baseball.
04:20I buy the idea they should trade him as well.
04:23And this season, you would get a King's ransom in return.
04:27One of the reasons DRS, the Pirates, should trade Paul Schemes and not just let him become a free agent in a few years, I believe, in 2029, is unlike Artie Moreno in Anaheim for Mike Trout, who paid Mike Trout a very large deal at the time.
04:42Bottom line, Bob, that would be Bob Nutting, is not going to do the same in Pittsburgh for Paul Schemes.
04:49There is no doubt that the second contract Paul Schemes sees in Major League Baseball is more than likely going to be the richest for a pitcher in MLB history.
04:59The Pirates are not worth and are not going to put up that much in terms of their finances.
05:05There is a reason that fans at PNC Park, a beautiful ballpark to take in a game, constantly chant, sell the team, sell the team.
05:14They graffitied sell the team on the stadium as of yesterday as they were getting beat 7-1.
05:22It's because Bob Nutting, DRS, he is the 10th richest owner in Major League Baseball and yet only cares about profits.
05:30So he would not pay Paul Schemes even what he is worth or near that top dollar to remain in the Steel City.
05:39So instead of just letting him walk in a few years, maybe you get some young trade assets back if that is even worth it for the Pirates.
05:48A team that has failed to make the MLB postseason now for nine consecutive years dating back to 2015.
05:54Second longest drought in MLB, only behind the LA Angels who we discussed just moments ago.
06:03That is why you trade Paul Schemes right now.
06:06Is it going to happen? I doubt it.
06:09Yeah, it's not going to happen.
06:11But the shame of it is as well because like – and you say like the 10th richest owner in Major League Baseball.
06:17Like shouldn't you want – and most billionaires, millionaires, professional athletes in any walk of life, you want to walk in that room and you want respect.
06:25Can you imagine going around Pittsburgh where – can you even go out to Permanente Brothers or a good steak dinner without everybody looking like – there's this bozo owner here, the Pittsburgh Pirates.
06:34You can be a legend in that city because understand this.
06:38Like small market teams can operate there.
06:40Look at the Pittsburgh Penguins here, how they've operated.
06:42They were almost bankrupt multiple times.
06:44They have multiple Stanley Cups because they surrounded Sidney Crosby with great players and paid players to be around them.
06:50You can also take a look at the Pittsburgh Steelers here.
06:52Generations of being in a small market and having a ton of success.
06:56You don't see the Pittsburgh Steelers going like we're just not going to pay any money.
06:59We don't care about coaches.
07:00We don't care about players and we're just going to be – just come out to Heinz Field or whatever.
07:03It's Atchison Stadium and enjoy the afternoon.
07:05They don't do that.
07:06Why do the Pittsburgh Pirates get away with that and do it?
07:08They don't get away with it because you can't get rid of the owner and that's a shame for the Pittsburgh fans.
07:13And you're going to waste one of the great generational talents we have seen on the mound in some time.
07:18More next.
07:19MLB buyers sell live right here on this Tuesday on the Early Line on Sports Grid.
07:23A change at the top in the divisional standings in the National League East as of yesterday.
07:29The Mets who lost their Subway Series weekend against the New York Yankees got beat yesterday in Boston 3-1.
07:35The Philadelphia Phillies swept the Pittsburgh Pirates as you should over the weekend
07:40and then made it four consecutive wins in a row.
07:43Hammering the Rockies actually in comeback fashion but still hammering Colorado 9-3 last night inside Coors Field.
07:50Again, as you should.
07:52So the Phillies now a half-game lead at 29-18 overall in front of New York 29-19 for the Mets.
07:59The Amazons remain the ever so slight National League East favorite at plus 110.
08:0430 cents in front of Philadelphia.
08:06But don't look now.
08:08Here come those Atlanta Braves after an 0-7 start to this year.
08:12Again, as we have shared multiple times.
08:14No team in the history of Major League Baseball has started 0-7 and ended up a playoff team.
08:21The Braves are finding their footing.
08:24Now a game above 500 at 24-23 in a plus 380 price to win the NL East.
08:30I guess we can discuss the Nats and the Marlins.
08:33The Fish did walk it off yesterday courtesy of Jesus Sanchez in a two-run double to win it against the Chicago Cubs.
08:40Our guy Jack McMullin on the call there in Miami on the radio broadcast.
08:45But DRS the focus really on those top three teams that entered this year with three of the four best prices to win the National League pennant.
08:52Only behind the L.A. Dodgers.
08:54The Phillies, the Mets and the Braves.
08:57The Braves right now though as you can see five games back to Philadelphia for that top spot in the National League East.
09:05So buy or sell.
09:06Interesting.
09:07Buy or sell.
09:08The Braves will win the NL East this season.
09:12We're talking on May 20th 2025 right now.
09:15This question being asked.
09:16I'm selling it right now.
09:17Like we're selling this because not only do you have to make up five games to the Philadelphia Phillies.
09:22It's four and a half games to the New York Mets.
09:24Now do they get Spencer Strider back coming back this week?
09:27Yeah, that's going to be great.
09:28And by the way, Strider pitches either today or tomorrow.
09:30I believe coming right back off the aisle.
09:32Ronald Acuna on the horizon to come back.
09:34That's going to be two big pieces to the Calvary coming back for Atlanta, which will only help them.
09:39We understand that.
09:40But also the Phillies are good.
09:41The Mets are good.
09:42The Braves are good.
09:43I'm getting two out of the three teams to knock off the Atlanta Braves and basically both have five game advantages here at the end of May.
09:50I'll be foolish to actually buy that and say absolutely the Braves can win this year.
09:54It's a sell for me right now.
09:56Now in a month when the Braves might be two games back or one game back, if they're climbing, then maybe it would change in my opinion at this point.
10:03But I like the Braves.
10:04I like the Mets.
10:05And I like the Philadelphia Phillies.
10:06And if I have a five game head start, only a fool Ben would buy the Braves right now five games back.
10:13I'm selling this notion wholeheartedly.
10:16They started in a hole.
10:18They were 0-7.
10:19They were 5-13.
10:21They were 14-18 after dropping three straight games but their first two in May.
10:27Have they responded since winning 10 of their last 15?
10:30Sure.
10:31But last week they lost a series to the Pittsburgh Pirates two weekends ago.
10:35They won three of four against the Nationals.
10:37They beat the Red Sox in a series this weekend.
10:40Atlanta has won five of its last seven.
10:42And to Donnie's point, yes, they have strong reinforcements on the way.
10:47Spencer Strider should be back.
10:48We hope that he can remain healthy and Ronald Acuna Jr. as well.
10:52But I'm not infatuated with what I'm seeing out of the Braves.
10:56I give them some credit for getting back to above 500 as quickly as they have won in the weekend against the Red Sox in Fenway.
11:05But I don't think they're catching the Mets.
11:07I don't think they're catching the Phils.
11:09Could they?
11:10For sure.
11:11It's four and a half games.
11:12It's five games right now where we stand here on May 20th with a ton of baseball to be played and a ton to figure out within this division.
11:23But I'm not buying it.
11:24And DRS, we also often talk.
11:27We do a fake the public poll or something of the sort.
11:29What is the best bet to win?
11:31Insert X. Plus 110 for the Mets.
11:34Plus 140 for the Phillies.
11:36Half game difference Philadelphia in front of New York at this moment.
11:40At a plus 380 price, I don't even think Atlanta is the best bet to win this division with a couple of extra bucks behind the Mets and the Phils.
11:49Yeah, and if you want to take the Atlanta Braves, you can look at it objectively and say they're getting players back.
11:54The Philadelphia Phillies just lost their closer for 80 games and won't be eligible for the postseason.
11:58So that should play into it there where the Phillies might struggle.
12:01What's that?
12:02Why was Jose Alvarado?
12:06Alvarado?
12:07PDs, right?
12:08Yeah, PDs.
12:09Go on 80 games, won't be eligible for the playoffs.
12:11That's certainly going to hurt at that point.
12:13But then you take a look at the New York Mets and you say to yourself, all right, well, what's their problems?
12:17Well, they have a high-priced player that doesn't fly on jets that's been confirmed by multiple sports this year.
12:23You know what I mean?
12:24The family's getting secured.
12:25There's a lot of things going on between the top two teams in that division where maybe the Braves can settle in.
12:29Because a non-hustling guy that doesn't like his teammates, that ain't going to work out well.
12:34You know what?
12:35Buy!
12:36Buy!
12:37Buy!
12:39MLB Buy or Sell continues here on TEL.
12:45We now talk about the team with the best record in Major League Baseball.
12:49Imagine not having an American League pennant ticket on the Detroit Tigers from opening day.
12:55Donnie might have to imagine I do not.
12:57A 10-to-1 price on the Tigers to start off this MLB season.
13:02I have always had belief in those Tigers in Motown.
13:07And now that price has been slashed in half and then some.
13:10And now Detroit at 31-17 has the best record in all of the bigs.
13:17They got hammered yesterday for sure under the arch in St. Louis.
13:2011-4 by the Cardinals.
13:22But DRS, you see the stats there.
13:24A plus 80 run differential.
13:26257-177.
13:2831-17, best mark in the bigs.
13:31Best mark in the American League.
13:33Plus 450, that AL pennant price.
13:36And a 13-1 number to win the World Series.
13:39That's where this conversation goes.
13:42Buy or sell.
13:44The Tigers are legitimate World Series contenders.
13:48Buy it.
13:49Because you might say to yourself, what do you mean?
13:51The Detroit Tigers are World Series contenders at this point?
13:54No shot, Donnie.
13:56Look at the rest of Major League Baseball.
13:58Yeah, look at the rest of them.
14:00Particularly in the American League.
14:01We know the Yankees are good.
14:03Unbeatable?
14:04No.
14:05They're 27-19.
14:07Oh, that's right.
14:08Detroit's got 31 wins already on the season.
14:10And you might treat them as the Houston Rockets of the NBA.
14:13Ah, too much too soon.
14:15But when you get to the playoffs, they can't win.
14:17Why?
14:18Because they might have the best pitcher in the American League
14:20that's going to be pitching in game number one of every series here.
14:23Or you might be down 0-1 facing Detroit whether you like it or not.
14:26And also understand this point.
14:27Because if you don't like the Detroit Tigers to be a legitimate World Series
14:31contender, which means, Ben, you don't think they can make the World Series.
14:34Who scares you?
14:35The Red Sox?
14:36The Blue Jays?
14:38The Twins?
14:39The Royals?
14:40The Mariners and the Astros?
14:41They're right up there with those teams, which includes the New York Yankees.
14:44So before you, you know, get ahead of yourself and say,
14:47come on, Detroit can't win anything.
14:49They never win anything at this point.
14:51Understand the surroundings.
14:53Why can't Detroit just beat those teams I just named?
14:56And legitimately, a World Series contender for me means you must make the playoffs
15:00and get at least past the first round.
15:02That makes you a legitimate contender for the World Series.
15:05So for my money, I say, yes, again, the Yankees are good.
15:09But the Yankees don't even have as many wins as the Detroit Tigers do at 31.
15:14They are just as good, if not better,
15:16than every Major League Baseball team here in the American League.
15:20Why can't they be contenders?
15:22It's crazy to say, but I am absolutely buying right now the Detroit Tigers.
15:28And of course, DRS, there is still so much time
15:30to iron out everything around Major League Baseball,
15:33where your regular season record on May 20th
15:36might not represent what we have at the end of the season.
15:39But just as of this moment, to be in position to be in position, if you will.
15:4531-17, the record for the Tigers,
15:47a four-and-a-half game lead for the top spot in the American League Central.
15:51The oddsmakers agree.
15:52Minus 260, the price on the Tigers to win the AL Central.
15:57Should get that done, should have the benefit.
16:00And as of this moment, three-game advantage over the Yankees
16:04and the Seattle Mariners, actually.
16:06Both teams, 27 and 19, for what would be the best record in the AL
16:11and thus the number one overall seed in the American League,
16:16which would put them right into the American League Division Series.
16:20All right, we have talked a lot about rest versus rust in October
16:23in Major League Baseball in the previous few years
16:26since the expanded postseason, but at least in a really premier position.
16:31And then, DRS, you would consider,
16:33what does it take to be a World Series contender?
16:36Because 162 games, late March through September,
16:40very different than playoff baseball in October.
16:43But what is the first thing we highlight always
16:46when it comes to a legitimate contender to win a pennant or a World Series?
16:50Frontline starting pitching.
16:52You're 1, you're 2, and maybe you're 3,
16:54but certainly you're 1 and you're 2.
16:57Tarek Scouble, the reigning American League Cy Young winner,
17:01followed now by Jack Flaherty back in Detroit.
17:04When you look around the AL at this moment,
17:06that's as good of a 1-2 as you will find in this league,
17:11at least in my estimation.
17:13So I'll take it each and every time.
17:16It's why I have belief in the Tigers,
17:18and yes, I am certainly buying Detroit as a legitimate World Series contender.
17:23It's why I bought in on the Tigers pennant price at 10-1 on opening day
17:27that is now at plus 450.
17:29Yeah, Olsen and Mize on the IL, certainly not going to help there.
17:32It's really like your third and fourth options here,
17:34but you're right.
17:35When you get to a certain playoff series,
17:37particularly that wildcard round, if you are a wildcard team,
17:39that you have Scouble on the mound first and Flaherty second,
17:42that is a major advantage.
17:43And also understand this.
17:44They've done a very good job of building that lineup 1-9,
17:47which a couple years ago, the K, you got some high draft picks
17:49like a Spencer Torkelson.
17:51We want to see how these guys are going to provide.
17:53A lot of good left-handed bats, a lot of good right-handed bats
17:55that are all starting to hit at the same time,
17:57which is why the 31 wins on the season is the best in Major League Baseball.
18:02They're going to have their ebbs and flows.
18:04They're going to have their lulls.
18:05But if you can really have, every five to six days,
18:08Scouble and Flaherty giving you real honest efforts on the mound,
18:11that's going to go a long way.
18:12Major League Baseball, look, it's hard.
18:14And you have to get hot at the end of the season.
18:16We get that.
18:17But if you look at the American League,
18:18it's not nearly as strong top to bottom as what it was the past couple years,
18:22which is an advantage towards the Tigers.
18:24Again, no fluke.
18:25They got 31 wins.
18:26We'll see where they are at the all-star break.
18:28But the question posed today in mid to late May is,
18:30are they a true World Series contenders?
18:32You can't say no.
18:33Like, they have the components to do that.
18:35And understand this too, once you get to a team with another month,
18:38let's just go from May into June, where they're still maybe in first place,
18:41then it's up to that general manager and that front office to fortify that team
18:45with another bullpen arm, another starting pitcher,
18:48and another bat in that lineup.
18:49We'll see if that happens.
18:50But good vibes right now around the Tigers, and rightfully so.
18:53DRS, those World Series odds right now,
18:56there are eight teams around the bigs with a price shorter than 20 to 1.
19:01Of those eight teams, five hail from the National League,
19:04three only from the AL.
19:07Again, most of our teams, even with a top 10 World Series price,
19:11six from the NL, four from the AL.
19:14It feels like a much deeper National League
19:17with many more true contenders than that in the American League at this moment.
19:22Because DRS, when you look at the Seattle Mariners,
19:24who are that eighth team with a price shorter than 20 to 1
19:27to win a World Series at 18 to 1,
19:30I don't think entering opening day,
19:33there were many people that pointed to Seattle and said,
19:35yep, I believe in the Mariners as a true AL pennant contender.
19:39A team always on the rise, always expected to do something,
19:43although they have felt a little bit flat
19:45of actually having much playoff success the last two, three seasons.
19:49For sure.
19:50Could they be in the conversation?
19:52Absolutely.
19:53But when you looked at the AL West,
19:54the teams we highlighted, the Rangers and the Astros,
19:57in front of the M's,
19:58it's a different story here early on in this MLB campaign.
20:03I have full belief in the Tigers.
20:05I am loving what I am seeing out of Detroit to start.
20:08And I really do like that 10 to 1 ticket on the Tigers I have
20:11that is already shorter by more than half,
20:14and I hope is even shorter come the end of September, October.
20:17Exactly.
20:18Look, the Yankees are ahead of them.
20:20The Yankees have the pedigree here at this point,
20:22but we'll find out how good the Yankees are
20:23throughout the rest of the summer, as well as the Tigers.
20:25And again, it's the Mariners, the Rangers, the Astros, the Red Sox.
20:28In the past, you might be looking at, oh, much better teams, much more talent.
20:31Not the case at this point right now.
20:33Now, there is a lot of attrition throughout a Major League Baseball season.
20:35Injuries will happen. Slumps will happen as well.
20:38It's just up to the Tigers not to just lose the ground that they've gained
20:41over the first month and a half of the season, but all good vibes.
20:44We're not to June yet, and still the Detroit Tigers
20:46could be the talk of the town here in the American League.
20:48I love to see it.
20:49It's fun to have that fresh market, including a really, hey, Pittsburgh,
20:53a really good number one young pitcher that you're supporting
20:57with talent around them.
20:58What a novel concept.
21:00Terrence Scruble, by the way, is now the favorite once again
21:03to win AL Cy Young for a second consecutive year at plus 195.
21:08DRS, both the AL Central and the NL West, are two divisions around baseball
21:12where four teams are above 500.
21:15The Tigers a four and a half game lead currently
21:17over the Twins and the Royals.
21:19Minnesota, its game postponed due to weather in the fourth inning
21:23against divisional foe in the Guardians, also above 500.
21:26The two teams sub 500 in those two divisions, the White Sox, 14 and 35,
21:32in the AL Central, and the Rockies, 8 and 39.
21:368 and 39 in the National League West.
21:40Just comparing those two teams again, of course,
21:42Chicago lost 121 games last season.
21:45The most losses in a single season in MLB history.
21:48Through 47 games, they were 14 and 33.
21:52They're 14 and 34 now.
21:55The Rockies are 8 and 39.
21:59Uh-oh, we're on the early line now.
22:02A Major League Baseball preview for a full Tuesday slate
22:05around the bigs here on the early line.
22:08Donnie, Ben, breaking down the MLB card on this Tuesday.
22:12Earlier in our 2DRS and MLB Buyer Cell, we asked the question,
22:16are the Detroit Tigers a legit World Series contender?
22:20We were buying that notion with the best record in baseball.
22:23The Tigers 31 and 17, despite getting hammered yesterday
22:28in St. Louis by the Red Hot Red Birds
22:31under the arch.
22:32Stellar performance out of Sonny Gray.
22:34The Cardinals win 11 to 4.
22:36St. Louis has now won 13 of its last 15 games
22:40and yet not a favorite today.
22:42Why?
22:43Tarek Skubal on the bump for Detroit.
22:45Minus 186.
22:46Live Moneyline price, a total of 7.5.
22:50Will the Tigers bounce back with Skubal getting the start?
22:53Yeah, this is one of those games where you tell,
22:55hey, hey, skip.
22:56Ah, man, my knee a little flared up on me overnight.
22:59You know, made me want to sit down this one.
23:00Not really sure if I want to play in that Cardinals lineup.
23:02Why?
23:03Because Tarek Skubal has been nothing short of an absolute force
23:06on the season and particularly over the last 30 days.
23:09Take a look at his last 30 days.
23:10Been 118 batters that he's faced.
23:13A walk percentage at under 2%.
23:15But how about a combined strikeout percentage of 39%.
23:20That's astronomically high.
23:22An ISO power number against 063.
23:24A weighted on base percentage of 231.
23:26Let's get in analytically here.
23:27He's had 30 innings over the past 30 days that he's pitched.
23:30And he already had 2.67.
23:32But look at the analytical numbers.
23:33A FIP of 1.32 and an XFIP of 1.56.
23:37Good luck touching him today.
23:39Now, on the opposite side, Eric Fetty is a pitcher that does have a higher XFIP
23:43number.
23:44But he's been decent over the past 30 days.
23:46If you look at his ERA band, a 3.45, but that XFIP number at 4.84.
23:50He was decent in his last start.
23:52Now, the one thing that he's been doing well here is on the season.
23:55Doing well as a right-handed pitcher against left-handed batters.
23:58An ISO of 106 against on the season combined.
24:01And a weighted on base percentage of 297.
24:03But look to lefties.
24:04An 072 on the season and a 262 weighted on base percentage.
24:08And also in the last 30 days, an 043 ISO power number.
24:12Why is that important?
24:13Look at the lefties in the lineup today for Detroit.
24:15They do damage against right-handed pitching.
24:17Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Riley Green, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney.
24:21That's the matchup that you want to see today.
24:23If Fetty turns into old Eric Fetty that we love to fade,
24:26this should be a walk-away easy victory.
24:28And also, 74-degree temperatures, 15-mile-an-hour winds or so blowing out
24:32to right field.
24:33That's an advantage for left-handed batters.
24:35I don't think it's going to matter for St. Louis.
24:37They ain't going to touch Scuba.
24:38But I'm interested to see those left-handed bats going up against Fetty,
24:41who hasn't given up a lot of damage to left-handed batters.
24:44The reigning A.L.
24:45Cy Young winner in Tarek Scuba.
24:47Now the A.L.
24:48Cy Young favorite at plus 195.
24:50Houston's Hunter Brown, second-best price at plus 440.
24:54Now, with all that being said about Scuba,
24:56in his last start against the Boston Red Sox,
24:58did get roughed up a little bit, seven innings of work,
25:01allowing five earned run did K11.
25:05He has had at least eight strikeouts in his last four starts.
25:08And for Scuba DRS, a 4-2 record this year.
25:11Detroit did win the game against the Red Sox last week,
25:13even allowing five earned run for Tarek Scuba.
25:16In his first two starts of the year,
25:18two losses allowed a total of seven earned runs.
25:21In his next six starts, four earned runs in total in those six outings
25:26before the rough day in Fenway against Boston.
25:29Or perhaps it was at home.
25:31It was at home in Detroit against the Red Sox,
25:34but expected to have a good outing on the road against St. Louis,
25:38trying to slow down the Cardinals.
25:40Win total 75.5 for St. Louis.
25:43They've got 26 wins this year.
25:46They're more than a third of the way to that win total already,
25:50exceeding expectation early.
25:53The L.A. Dodgers riding a four-game skid tonight at home
25:57against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
25:59And again, that expected to end.
26:02The Dodgers greater than a $2 favorite with Yoshinobu Yamamoto
26:05on the mound for L.A., taking on the D-backs.
26:09The arrest at price, minus 225, minus 230 now on the money line.
26:14Will the odds makers be correct?
26:16And will that four-game slide for L.A. come to a close?
26:19They should be.
26:20Take a look at Yamamoto.
26:21His last 22 innings over the past 30 days, a 3.68 ERA,
26:25which isn't shutdown.
26:26It's okay at this point.
26:27And an exit number of 3.67, which is actually better.
26:30He should be able to somewhat quiet the bat sound for Arizona.
26:33Like, I don't know, not give up nine runs with multiple home runs today.
26:36But the focus, as always, will be on that Dodgers lineup,
26:39which presents itself on a day-to-day basis,
26:41particularly against right-handed pitching, very, very well.
26:44You take a look at Ryan Nelson, 17 on my card out of 28 pitchers today
26:48over the past 30 days.
26:49He's got a 2.87 ERA, which is great,
26:51but a slightly higher exit number of 4.16.
26:54If we focus on what Nelson has done well on the season,
26:57only 63 batters he's faced from the right side.
26:59He's got great ISO power number and weighted-on-base percentage numbers,
27:02a 1.36 and a 2.90, respectively.
27:04Over the past 30 days, Ben,
27:0643 batters he's faced from the right-hand side,
27:08a 1.25 ISO and a 2.38 weighted-on-base percentage.
27:12So, yes, the right-handed batters can get to Ryan Nelson,
27:14but the focus is going to be on those lefties today,
27:17because the last 30 days,
27:18which only includes 21 batters that Ryan Nelson has faced,
27:21that's a 200 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of 3.41
27:24and a K rate under 20%.
27:27So, the lefties in the lineup,
27:28Shohei Otani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy,
27:30should be able to deliver.
27:32The Dodgers should break out of their slump today,
27:34but I'm not so much focused on the right-handed batters,
27:36who all have great numbers, don't get me wrong,
27:38but if I'm thinking of a chance for maybe a home run,
27:40it's going to be Freddie Freeman and also Shohei Otani,
27:43chance for an RBI, both of those guys,
27:45and extra base hits.
27:46Those two guys are my focus, but, yes,
27:48the Dodgers should win today.
27:49Better pitcher, better lineup, they should win.
27:52A lot of home runs for Arizona last night in that 9-5 win.
27:56Despite the defeat,
27:57the Dodgers did get home run number 17,
28:00the most in the major leagues,
28:01from Shohei Otani last night.
28:03Yoshiyama Moto, first seven outings of the year,
28:06allowed a total of four earned runs.
28:09He has given up eight combined in his last two starts.
28:13A series begins today in Toronto
28:15between the Blue Jays and the Padres.
28:17Dylan Cease gets the start for San Diego.
28:20The Padres, DRS reeling, and how could you not be
28:23when you get swept in the opening series
28:25of the inaugural Vetter Cup
28:26against their bitter rivals in the Seattle Mariners?
28:29You have to wonder what the feel in the clubhouse is
28:32for the Padres at this moment.
28:34Yeah, exactly.
28:35They better win.
28:36That's certainly the notion here,
28:37and going over to Toronto, we'll see if that plays out.
28:3952 degrees is the temperature.
28:41Who knows if that roof will be open or not,
28:43but here's the focus.
28:44Chris Bassett is a decent pitcher,
28:45but over the past 30 days, a 5.14 ERA,
28:48but has a much lower X-fifth number,
28:50but also, he's been very good
28:51against right-handed batters,
28:52particularly on this season,
28:53starting to slip just a little bit over the past 30 days,
28:56in particular, left-handed batters, Ben.
28:58A .224 ISO and a weighted-on-base percentage of .396
29:01over the last 61 batters he's faced
29:03from the left-hand side.
29:04Those focal points, Louie Arise, Jackson Merrill,
29:07Gavin Sheets, and Jake Cronenworth,
29:08all really good numbers against right-handed pitching.
29:11Should be a bounce back today
29:12for the San Diego Padres, at least on offense.
29:16An ever-so-slight favorite in Toronto.
29:18More around the Bigs next.
29:19A little bit of a doubleheader in Minneapolis today
29:23for the Twins and the Guardians.
29:25I wonder if the owners are going to leave their meetings
29:28in their ballrooms and maybe head out to Target Field today
29:31to take on some AL Central Divisional Duel
29:34between the Twins and the Guardians.
29:36Game number one yesterday.
29:38Minnesota up, I think, 2-1 in the fourth inning
29:41when this game was postponed due to inclement weather.
29:44They will resume that game about an hour, hour 15
29:47prior to the scheduled start for today's full game,
29:50the second game of this Divisional Duel this week
29:54between the Twins and the Guardians.
29:56Pretty short numbers today between the two.
29:59Minnesota, a minus-118 Moneyline favorite.
30:02The Guardians, an ever-so-slight dog on the other side.
30:04Now even money, plus 100.
30:06Total down from 7.5 now to 7.
30:09Not great weather this week in Minnesota,
30:12and they got to finish the first game of this set DRS before.
30:16How does that impact the handicap?
30:18Yeah, probably going to be a complete stay-away at this point
30:21because you're looking at temperatures.
30:23It's one thing like, hey, it's spring and it's 68 degrees.
30:25It's 45 degrees at first pitch and it's 740 with being expected.
30:29It's going to be freezing. I'd be surprised.
30:31They're going to try to get at least one of these in,
30:33but game number two is going to be a mess.
30:35If we're just looking at the starting pitchers,
30:37you do have some sort of an interesting circumstance.
30:39He's fifth on the card today with an XFIP of 3.15.
30:42You love to see that, but also at the same time,
30:44you take a look at his 4.03 ERA.
30:48So wait a second, he's getting a little bit unlucky, yes.
30:50Then you take a look at Chris Paddock on the mound here from Minnesota.
30:52He's got a 2.15 ERA, but a 4.86 XFIP, almost the exact opposite.
30:58So if you're just looking at pitchers, Gavin Williams over the past 30 days,
31:00lefties and righties have been starting to get to him,
31:03but again, is he getting just a little bit unlucky at that point?
31:06Is that going to turn around today?
31:07And also, it's not a great hitter's ballpark overall.
31:10Now you end in the cold temperatures and rain into the forecast.
31:14If they do play, trying to force this way through,
31:17which is always a little bit of a food for thought.
31:19Understand this about baseball.
31:21It is a business.
31:22They don't want to come back and play extra games.
31:24So when the umpire understands that the conditions are bad,
31:27hey, that ball's four inches off the plate.
31:29See, right three.
31:31Let's keep the game moving at this point.
31:33That's always tough when you're over back.
31:34So I probably lean more towards the under,
31:36not because I like the pitching matchups,
31:38but because the weather conditions, number one,
31:40and also the understanding where the ump is not going to be, hey,
31:43I'm going to have a real tight strike zone.
31:45So they hope when we get a three and a half hour game and in the pouring
31:47freezing cold, that's dangerous under me tonight.
31:50And we don't even know who the starting lineups are going to be.
31:52Technically.
31:53Yeah.
31:54It's a good point.
31:55DRS Minnesota, of course,
31:56had their 13 game win streak the longest this year in the bigs
31:59snapped on Sunday in Milwaukee by the Brewers.
32:03They were 13 and 20 before that win streak, Minnesota.
32:06Now they are 26 and 21 trailing the Tigers by four and a half games in the
32:12AL central, the guardians, 25 and 21.
32:15They played much better baseball after a slow start,
32:18but Cleveland enters this series against Minnesota,
32:21having lost four straight in six of their last eight.
32:24They are trailing to one in the opening game that resumes in the fourth
32:28inning later today in Minnesota,
32:30before that scheduled game at TRS was just breaking down a Bronx battle
32:35tonight between the New York Yankees and the Texas Rangers inside Yankee
32:39stadium.
32:40Now, Patrick Corbin,
32:41ain't great,
32:42but we'll Warren with a four,
32:44six,
32:45one era,
32:46who in fairness has been a little bit better here in his three starts in
32:49the month of May,
32:50we'll Warren in the New York Yankees are nearly a $2 home favorite
32:55against the Texas Rangers total eight and a half DRS,
32:59supposed to be a pretty nice night here in the greater New York city area.
33:02What's the play.
33:03Yeah.
33:04Wind blowing in from right field here,
33:06but only seven miles per hour,
33:0762 degree temperatures.
33:08But how about this?
33:09It will,
33:10we'll Warren out of 28 pitchers that on the card,
33:11Ben expert wise,
33:12he's number three on the card.
33:13It's 25 and a third innings pitch to four,
33:15two,
33:16six era,
33:17which is elevated,
33:18but his four,
33:19two,
33:20six turns into a two,
33:21six,
33:22two exit,
33:23which is really good.
33:24Now,
33:25if we take a look at Patrick Corbin,
33:26nobody really likes him all that much,
33:2728 and a third innings pitch over the past month,
33:28which is ERA,
33:29Ben 3.18,
33:304.53 extra,
33:31which is elevated.
33:32But Patrick Corbin is a left-handed pitcher.
33:34Here's the problem.
33:35It doesn't get out lefty.
33:36So immediately go down and say,
33:37okay,
33:38I want to focus on lefty versus lefty matchups.
33:39You don't have great ones here for the Yankees.
33:41The right-handed batters usually do the damage.
33:43Paul Goldschmidt got high numbers,
33:44but this team hasn't faced all that much left-handed pitching over the past 30 days.
33:48Maybe the best hitter in the line up through limited abats is lefty.
33:52Austin Wells.
33:53He has 17 to bats going up against left-handed pitching over the past month.
33:56How about a 4.67 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 4.69,
33:59but the all-important lefty on lefty matchup and 11% K rate,
34:03which is fantastic.
34:04So if I'm looking for a sneaky bat late in that lineup that really matches up
34:07against Patrick Corbin today,
34:08it's probably going to be Austin Wells for me.
34:10Listen,
34:11Will Warren,
34:12I apologize.
34:13I was not familiar with your advanced analytics game and DRS.
34:16You really did crack me up being like Patrick Corbin.
34:18Nobody really likes him.
34:20I think that from a handicapping perspective,
34:23I don't know.
34:24Maybe not.
34:26Playing the games.
34:27Never know.
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