On "Forbes Newsroom," Clifford May, the founder and resident of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, reacted to the phone call between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Cliff May, founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Cliff,
00:12thanks so much for joining me once again. Glad to be here. I am glad to have you. I want to talk
00:17about where we are right now in the Russia-Ukraine war. It has raged on for over three years. And
00:22just today, President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call. The goal was,
00:28according to Trump, to stop the bloodbath of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Details are
00:34emerging now of that phone call. President Trump posted this about the meeting. Quote,
00:38Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a ceasefire, and more
00:42importantly, an end to the war. The conditions for that will be negotiated between the two parties,
00:47as it can only be because they know details of a negotiation that nobody else would be aware of.
00:53What do you make of this phone call between the two? And what President Trump characterized as
00:57what was said in the phone call? Well, I've got to say, I'm very skeptical that this is going to lead
01:05to a ceasefire, much less peace or a path to peace anytime soon. What you're going to see,
01:11I think, is that Putin will make unbelievable demands on Zelensky and on Ukraine. Demands that will
01:20essentially be asking for or demanding surrender. That Ukraine become, like Belarus is, a vassal state,
01:28or like Chechnya is, a colony. He'll want additional land sacrificed, not just the lands occupied.
01:35He'll want Ukraine demilitarized so it can't defend itself. I think it's really bad. Now,
01:41President Trump has emphasized in what he has said, the various carrots he is offering to Putin.
01:50I think, you know, I think it's possible that Putin will say, gee, that sounds wonderful. I'd love to
01:56help enrich Russia. But again, I'm very skeptical. I think it is going to be necessary for Trump to
02:04use sticks, not just carrots, by which I mean serious economic sanctions, depriving Russia of
02:13revenue from its hydrocarbons, which is the main source of its revenue. And I would say amping up the
02:22munitions it gives to or sells to the Ukrainians. With that kind of pressure, I think you can get
02:28Putin to a ceasefire. Without that kind of pressure, you know, I'll make this prediction,
02:34and you can have me back on. And if I'm wrong, I'll be glad to admit it. I don't think Putin stops.
02:39Over the last few days, hundreds of drones have fallen on Ukraine. It's got to understand,
02:44Putin doesn't want peace. What Putin wants is victory, which means the conquest of Ukraine
02:50and dragging Ukraine back into what he, as he sees it, the Russian empire ruled by the Kremlin,
02:57ruled by him in the Kremlin as sort of the new czar.
03:01I want to talk about what's happened in the last few days before this phone call. There were talks
03:07in Turkey between Russian officials and Ukrainian officials, and Russia sent lower level, reportedly,
03:14junior officials to the negotiating table. Ukraine said that they offered a host of non-starters.
03:21A ceasefire was not agreed to in that meeting. Then this weekend, we see Russia launch one of the
03:27largest drone strikes against Ukraine in the past over three years. So what happened in this phone
03:33conversation, do you think, between Putin and Trump? Is he placating Trump? Is he lying to Trump's face?
03:39Is Trump believing that? What do you make of this? So you're exactly right about what happened. It was
03:45the delegation the Russians sent was not just low level. It was like the culture minister.
03:51It was like a joke. And I think everybody recognizes that he wasn't negotiating seriously.
03:56I'm not sure he will negotiate seriously. What we can hope for is that in this conversation
04:02or any conversations that Trump has with Putin going forward, he will remind Putin that he has
04:08threatened serious economic sanctions and other pressure measures. He has said in the past, Trump has,
04:17what I can do to Russia will be, quote, devastating. And it can be. I know that Trump doesn't want to do
04:23that, but I think he has to do that. He has to do that, I would also argue, in close alliance with our
04:31friends in Europe who are, who want to put pressure on Russia. I think they understand, certainly the
04:37Poles do, certainly the Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians do. There has to be pressure on Putin
04:43or he will continue to strike and get Ukraine, including civilians, including residential
04:49neighborhoods. And he'll be doing what he's been doing, abducting children, taking them to Russia,
04:55telling them that they're Russians, they're not Ukrainians anymore. Terrible things. This is going to,
05:00and Putin doesn't care that he's losing thousands of soldiers. Look, if you want to understand the
05:06way he looks at it, he says, yes, there are sacrifices that have to be made if I am to restore
05:11the Russian empire to greatness. And that means for him, above all, taking Ukraine back one way or
05:19another. And that won't be the last former Soviet Russian colony or satellite that he takes back.
05:27That's very important to understand. So there's got to be, there really has to be serious pressure.
05:32I hope Trump is letting Putin know he's not just bluffing. If Putin thinks he's bluffing,
05:38Putin will do what he has been doing all along. He will rocket and missile attack Ukraine,
05:44pretend to talk, and not go along even with a serious ceasefire.
05:49Both Russia and the Trump administration said last week that no serious progress was going to be made
05:56until those two leaders get in a room. Do you think that this call was serious progress at all?
06:03Because back in April, Trump said after a Russian strike that he, he said on Truth Social,
06:09it makes me think that he, Putin, doesn't want to stop the war. He's just tapping me along.
06:13Do you think Putin's just leading Trump along again now?
06:18I do think so. I think that's exactly what's going on. I'm glad to see that Trump now seems to be
06:24getting the drift that Putin has been sending, that he's tagging him along or playing him along,
06:30that he's not serious, that he may say, Putin, I'd love to see peace. I'd love to see a ceasefire.
06:36But again, what he wants is conquest. That's what he wants. Beyond economic sanctions,
06:40there's other things that Trump can do and should do. He should make clear that he is going to
06:46continue to send munitions to Ukraine. Doesn't have to give them away. He can sell them. Europeans
06:53can pay for that. Ukrainians can pay for it. We now have a deal on minerals and mineral rights inside
07:00Ukraine. That'll provide funds. And there's about $300 billion in frozen Russian funds in Europe
07:07that could be seized at this point and used for both rearmament and reparations.
07:13The Ukrainians in particular need American weapons. They're the best weapons. But two in particular,
07:18I would say, Patriot missiles. What do Patriot missiles do? They're defensive. They knock out
07:23of the sky the worst missiles that Putin is sending. The other thing I would say are attack-ems.
07:28That's an offensive weapon. Under the Biden administration, the Ukrainians were not allowed
07:33to use them against targets outside Ukraine in Russia. I would say they should be given permission
07:39to use them against military targets in Russia. Again, you put this pressure on Putin, both through
07:45military means and economic means. At that, maybe the point at which he says, okay, I'm willing to have
07:52a ceasefire. A ceasefire, what does that become? Not peace, not community, not amicable relations.
07:57It becomes a frozen conflict. Keep in mind what happened in the Koreas. There was a Korean war.
08:05The U.S. intervened. At the end of that war, there was not a path to peace. There was an armistice.
08:11It's a frozen conflict. It's been frozen since 1953. The North Koreans are aggressive,
08:18but they haven't attacked, partly because we've got about 28,000 American soldiers in South Korea,
08:23which would mean a war there. By the way, keep in mind, the North Koreans have been sending Russia
08:30huge amounts of munitions, artillery shells, 155 artillery shells, huge numbers. They've sent them
08:37more than America makes in like a decade. They've been sending them soldiers, soldiers who have died
08:42in battle against the Ukrainians. Trust me on this. Kim Jong-un, the dictator of North Korea,
08:48is getting something in return. What he's getting in return is likely to make him more aggressive in
08:54the future against South Korea, which is an American ally. What do you think Ukrainian President
09:01Zelenskyy is thinking about this phone call, this post? Because afterwards, President Trump did say
09:07he called Zelensky. He also called other NATO members about the phone conversation. I mean,
09:13what do you think he's thinking right now? How should he feel about this?
09:17So Zelenskyy wishes that the United States would see this the way he sees it, which is that the
09:25Ukrainians are on the front line against a common enemy, against Russia, which is aligned in a no-limits
09:32partnership with the Communist Party of China, the most powerful Communist Party in history, with the
09:38Islamist and Jihadist regime in Tehran, and with North Korea. So he would like
09:42Trump and others to see this as Ukraine doing something for the free world. He understands
09:49that's not quite the way Trump sees it. But he also now understands, I'm going to do what Trump
09:55asked me to do. I will not be the obstacle to a ceasefire or to peace. So Zelenskyy has said very
10:02clearly, not least in the private meeting he had at the Vatican with Trump, you say you want a
10:09no conditions, 30-day ceasefire? I agree. I will have that if Putin will have that. You want a deal
10:16on Ukrainian mineral rights? I will give you that. Basically, he said, tell me what you want and I'll
10:22do it so you understand. I'm not the obstacle to peace because I want you to understand that the
10:27obstacle here to a ceasefire or to peace is 100% Vladimir Putin who sees himself as the new czar
10:36who is trying to, again, restore the Russian empire, which for a number of decades was rebranded as
10:43the Soviet Union. President Trump continued to post about this meeting. He said it was a great
10:49conversation. That's what he characterized it as. And he also said this, quote, Russia wants to do
10:55large-scale trade with the United States when this catastrophic bloodbath is over. And I agree.
11:00There's tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth.
11:04Its potential is unlimited. Likewise, Ukraine can be a great beneficiary on trade in the process of
11:09rebuilding its country. Do you think that's enough of a carrot for Russia to say, you know what,
11:15we are going to get into this ceasefire because we want to open up more trade to with the United
11:21States? The economic possibilities could be limitless there. I mean, you look skeptical.
11:27I am skeptical. I think that's the way Americans in general tend to think of the world. We're all
11:33material girls, as Mathana would say. I don't think it's the way Vladimir Putin sees it. He'd rather
11:40Russia be poor for another century, but larger. That's the way he sees it. He could have done all
11:47kinds of things for the Russian economy, and he hasn't. Mostly, he's made himself perhaps the
11:52richest man in the world. I don't think he is seduced by the idea that the people of Russia could
11:59have wonderful 401k plans and great health care. I don't think that's what's on his mind. I've studied
12:05him for a long time. I've studied Russia for more than 50 years. It's not all Russians. There are Russians
12:10who would agree with that. I don't think Putin is one of them. He's a former KGB officer.
12:15He was a product of the Soviet system. And again, he sees his role historically as the czar. In good
12:23times, the czar should expand the Russian Empire. In bad times, which it is now, he should restore
12:29the Russian Empire. That's why in 2008, he went into neighboring Georgia. And in neighboring Georgia,
12:35he took for himself, for Russia, essentially two provinces. It's why in 2014, he took, invaded,
12:44and annexed the Crimean Peninsula. Right now, he holds about 18% of Ukrainian territory, including
12:52a land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula. Again, he might settle for that for now and think,
12:58I can do more after Trump is out of office and I get somebody else. He might settle for that,
13:03but I think only if there is serious pressure, only if he thinks, okay, I've been forced into a corner.
13:10He will not do that because he thinks, oh, look at these wonderful trade relations and good deals
13:15we can get with the Americans. I just don't think that's his priority.
13:20To your point, and coming off of your expertise from Russia and Putin specifically, do you think
13:26America and the Trump administration is really missing anything when it comes to these negotiations?
13:31Do you think they're going in there with more of an American perspective? I mean, what do you think
13:36that looks like? Yeah, I think they're going in there with an American perspective, which is that
13:41we're all, the word is homo economicus, the idea of people being motivated mostly by material benefits.
13:51And that's not true of Putin. I don't think it's true of Xi Jinping. In China, I don't think it's true
13:57of Kim Jong-un in North Korea. And I certainly don't think it's true of the Islamists in Tehran.
14:01You know, in Tehran, the revolution there was started by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
14:09And I was a reporter in Iran during the revolution as well. And I remember a famous phrase of the
14:16Ayatollahs, this revolution is not about the price of watermelons. In other words, this revolution
14:22is not to make people richer, and people are actually poorer now in Iran than they were during
14:28the shah. This revolution is about spreading his version of Islam and becoming the hegemon,
14:35the boss of the Middle East, about subjugating people in places like Lebanon, utilizing the Houthis,
14:42and by the way, exterminating the Israelis. That's what the revolution is about. It's not about having a
14:48fatter wallet. I can hear just how skeptical you are about Putin's talk to potentially go to the table,
14:57start negotiations again. Do you think this phone call was a big deal? I mean, was it just Putin kind
15:03of kicking the can down the road to keep President Trump interested? What do you think is next year?
15:09Well, listen, Putin will, where's the phrase, tag Trump along as much as he possibly can,
15:15if he can. It's in his interest to do so. He would not have invaded Ukraine in 2014, and again, three
15:27years ago, a little more than that now, if his concern was the economy of Russia, because he spent
15:35a fortune on this, and the economy of Russia is doing much worse as a result of this. And he is losing
15:41soldiers, and he is having difficulty recruiting a foreign army that moves ahead by inches and with
15:49bodies paving the way. Look, I think this call, I think, here's what I think. I think Trump will see
15:57that this call didn't move Putin in any particular direction, that whatever negotiations begin as a
16:05result of this do not have any good results. And at the end of the day, it's going to be a matter of,
16:12does the US, with its allies in Europe, put serious pressure on Putin or not? And there's a possibility,
16:20we've heard this said, that Trump will walk away from the negotiations. There's two ways to walk away.
16:26One is to walk away, but continue to help arm Ukraine. Again, using European money, using Russian
16:32money, other ways to do it. That's one thing. The other is, if Putin thinks, I'd like Trump to walk
16:40away from the negotiations and stop arming Ukraine, because if that's the case, I have a real chance
16:47to achieve my objectives, my objectives being to swallow Ukraine one way or another. Keep in mind
16:54that if he were to get all of Ukraine as he wants, you now have in Ukraine, perhaps the best fighting
17:01force in Europe. We know that. They've proven themselves. With bayonets to their back, which way
17:08do they march? I think Putin has them march ahead of his own soldiers westward towards Moldova,
17:17which is not a NATO member, and maybe towards countries like Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia,
17:22which are NATO members. And if he attacks them, we have an obligation under NATO Article 5
17:29to come to their defense. So stopping Putin in Ukraine is beneficial if the US does not want to
17:37end up in a war to support NATO allies or to let NATO collapse, which would mean very quickly the collapse
17:45of other alliances, not least in Asia. And that would be detrimental for Taiwan, which is worried
17:52about being taken over, and to Japan and to the Philippines and other American allies. You're not
17:57going to make America great again if America is in retreat all over the world.
18:01And my last question to you then, is there any indication of what President Trump is going to do next?
18:08My guess is that he is deciding that, and he is probably being advised by his various deputies.
18:17And I hope some are, and I hope most of them are saying, it's time for you to do what you said you'd
18:23do. Get tough on Putin. Show that you're not bluffing. People shouldn't think you bluff because if they do,
18:28they're going to start calling your bluff in a lot of other places as well. But there may be others who are
18:33saying, what's Ukraine to us? Why do we care? I think that's how to say myopic, nearsighted. I think
18:40that doesn't understand why it's important, not that we put boots on the ground, not that we fight,
18:45but that we help the Ukrainians maintain their independence, their sovereignty, their freedom,
18:55a political system that is democratic. I was an official election observer the last time
19:00there were elections in Ukraine. People were very proud that they had political parties,
19:05they had a free press, and that they were conducting free and fair elections. Very proud of that.
19:10If Putin takes control, that's the end of that. Never again. They would like to be like Poland is
19:15today or like Lithuania or Estonia or Latvia are. That's the way they want to be. They want to be in
19:21a free world led by America. We can help them or we can abandon them. I'm arguing that if we help them,
19:28it's in the American interest. I'm arguing that if we abandon them, it's not in the American
19:32interest. I hope that's the conclusion Trump comes to. I guess we'll see. Well, there are certainly a
19:38lot of developments to look out for. Cliff May, I appreciate your perspective. Thank you so much
19:42for joining me again. You are welcome back anytime. Thank you.