- 5/17/2025
As the Istanbul Plus talks approach their critical June 2024 deadline, the question remains: will diplomacy prevail with concrete terms for peace, or will the conflict escalate toward a military solution? The Duran analyzes the latest developments, the stakes for both Russia and Ukraine, and the roles of global powers shaping the outcome.
#IstanbulPlus #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #PeaceTalks #MilitarySolution #TheDuran #Diplomacy #Geopolitics #GlobalSecurity #WarAndPeace #ConflictResolution #June2024 #Russia #Ukraine #InternationalRelations #Negotiations #WarUpdates #StrategicMoves #PeaceOrWar #UkraineCrisis
#IstanbulPlus #UkraineWar #RussiaUkraineConflict #PeaceTalks #MilitarySolution #TheDuran #Diplomacy #Geopolitics #GlobalSecurity #WarAndPeace #ConflictResolution #June2024 #Russia #Ukraine #InternationalRelations #Negotiations #WarUpdates #StrategicMoves #PeaceOrWar #UkraineCrisis
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00All right, Alexander, let's talk about the talks in Istanbul, because yesterday we had
00:07no talks.
00:09A lot of delaying, a lot of trash talking.
00:13Boy, does Zelensky know how to trash talk.
00:17He never even went to Istanbul.
00:20He went to Ankara, met with Erdogan, and then got on a plane and went to Albania because
00:24there's some European forum meeting, another one of these meetings that Europe has every
00:32couple of days anyway.
00:34He went to that event in Albania.
00:37He was in Turkey for about five hours, four or five hours, that's it.
00:44Had a sit down with Erdogan and then got on a plane and took off.
00:48So he never even made it to Istanbul.
00:50The Russian delegation waited in Istanbul, and they waited, and they waited, and they
00:57waited, and we finally, at least we finally got the green light from Zelensky for a negotiating
01:06team to be set up and to meet with the Russians today.
01:12As we're recording this video, they are in meetings.
01:15From what I understand, the format, at least according to Turkish media, is that there
01:22will be meetings between the U.S., Ukraine, and Turkey, and then there are going to be
01:28meetings between Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia.
01:34Rubio, by the way, is in Istanbul as well.
01:38So your thoughts, Alexander, on the circus?
01:42Circus is exactly the right word.
01:44It was absolute chaos yesterday.
01:45Circus, by the way, as somebody pointed out to me, is actually, I mean, circuses are far
01:54better organized than what we saw yesterday.
01:56I mean, people work there, people do hard work in circuses.
02:00What we saw yesterday was absolutely unbelievable.
02:03And I have to say this.
02:06I mean, what is shocking about Zelensky's behavior is that people treat it as somehow
02:15acceptable and normal.
02:18So, you know, he flies to Turkey.
02:21He doesn't go to Istanbul.
02:23These are supposed to be talks that are going to happen in Istanbul.
02:27He makes one statement after another.
02:30He changes his position from one minute to another, one hour to another.
02:34He says one moment he's not going to talk to anybody if Putin isn't there.
02:39The next moment he says nobody can speak to the Russians directly except him.
02:45And he's not prepared to speak to the Russians.
02:48He refuses to send a delegation that he is sending a delegation.
02:52He eventually gets holed up in a meeting with Erdogan, which goes on for three hours.
02:59That's a massive meeting, three hour meeting.
03:03And my own sense of this is that he didn't want to participate in any talks in Istanbul
03:09at all.
03:10He, at the same time, doesn't want to antagonize Trump and the Americans who do want a meeting.
03:18So he gets holed up in this meeting with Erdogan.
03:21And I suspect what happened is that the whole meeting was basically Erdogan telling him
03:27you've got to send a delegation to Ankara.
03:30And I get to make a further guess.
03:32I suspect throughout that meeting, there were calls to Rubio and other American officials,
03:38all of them trying to get Zelensky to finally appoint the delegation to go to Istanbul.
03:46And then eventually he gives this, well, it's called a press conference, but it's really
03:50a long rant which goes on forever.
03:53And he talks pretty much without interruptions.
03:57He talks bizarrely about how the Russians who are doing exactly that which they always
04:07said they would do, which is send a delegation to negotiate in Istanbul, how they're showing
04:14disrespect to Trump, disrespect to him, disrespect to everybody and all of that.
04:20But eventually, finally, he does put a delegation together and that delegation is going to Istanbul.
04:27We are, I mean, apparently they've arrived and apparently they're going to be meetings.
04:34And the key thing to say is that the format is essentially the same as the one that we
04:41saw in 2022.
04:43They meet in the same room in the Dommelbacher Palace.
04:48The Turks were present at the meetings back in 2022.
04:52They are present at the talks this time.
04:55They're chairing the meetings because they're the host.
04:59They brought in the delegations to speak to them in advance.
05:02They spoke to the Russians.
05:04The Turks spoke to the Russians yesterday.
05:07They're speaking to the Ukrainians today.
05:10What is different this time and could make all the difference, either for good or for
05:17bad, is that the Americans are also participating.
05:22And remember, when we got the agreement in Istanbul last time, in April 2022, the Americans
05:32basically didn't like it.
05:34The Biden administration didn't like it and they sabotaged it.
05:39This time, the Americans are actually involved directly in the discussions.
05:43They will be there in the room and we'll see where this goes.
05:47So this is a chaotic approach of Zelensky and we see all over the media, all the commentaries
05:56in Europe treating this as absolutely proper and normal behavior by a head of state.
06:06Nobody asks the question, why does Zelensky even go to Turkey at all if he's not going
06:12to Istanbul?
06:13Why does Zelensky, if he's going to Turkey, go to Ankara instead of Istanbul if he's going
06:20to go to Turkey?
06:21Why does he waste Erdogan's time for three hours?
06:26Either he negotiates or he doesn't.
06:28Either he sends a negotiating team or he doesn't.
06:31I mean, it's just, I mean, the whole thing was absolutely bizarre.
06:35It wasted a whole day.
06:37It took up an enormous amount of energy.
06:40We see this narrative about the Russians sending some kind of piffling underlings to
06:49Istanbul and gain traction and people write about it and accept it as true and say that
06:56Putin has dodged this meeting when it was entirely Zelensky's idea that Putin would
07:02come to this meeting.
07:03Putin never gave any indication that he was going to come to this meeting.
07:07But anyway, one way or the other, we now have talks apparently going to start today
07:14in Istanbul.
07:15Now Zelensky says that the only subject for discussion is going to be the 30-day ceasefire.
07:24That is what the Ukrainians are saying.
07:27The Russians have basically poured cold water on that.
07:31We'll see where this goes or whether this even gets started.
07:40We'll see how this thing moves from this point on.
07:43But anyway, the Americans are going to be in the room.
07:45Some people in Russia are very nervous about that.
07:48They're saying that that means that the Russian delegation is going to be outnumbered.
07:52Well, in a kind of a sense, that's true.
07:55Against that, this is a very strong Russian delegation.
08:00The key point about it is that the military are involved in it.
08:05We have the head of the military intelligence there.
08:10When you look at the meeting that Putin called in order to agree the terms of the remit of
08:21the Russian delegation, the military were heavily involved in that as well.
08:27Something which has been completely misreported in the West, a senior military official,
08:33an actual soldier, has now been appointed to the apparatus of the Security Council.
08:40This is General Selyukov, who was the head of the ground forces.
08:44One gets the sense that he's going to be involved also in keeping an eye on these diplomatic processes as well.
08:54So we'll see where this goes.
08:56But a chaotic start to these negotiations, with the Russians going out of their way,
09:03for the moment at least, to say that this is going to be a resumption of the Istanbul process of 2022,
09:11and that it's intended to address the root causes of the conflict.
09:15So we'll see where this goes.
09:17Russia's been saying that for over a year now.
09:21June 2024. We're almost at June 2025.
09:25Russia has been saying root causes for one freaking year.
09:30We've had Russia's terms for one year, and no one talks about it in the collective West.
09:36Not the media, not any leader, not any foreign minister.
09:41No one dares to mention June 2024 Putin's terms as he said them during a speech at the foreign ministry.
09:52No one dares to mention this.
09:54We're one year into this.
09:56What a spoiled actor Zelensky is.
10:00He's a spoiled actor, and everyone in the collective West, including the Trump administration,
10:06after the fight at the White House, including the Trump administration, everyone in Europe,
10:12they baby the guy.
10:14They baby him.
10:16It is unbelievable.
10:18He is the definition of spoiled actor who just gets babied everywhere he goes.
10:24And because he gets babied everywhere he goes, he gets more and more spoiled,
10:29and he asks for more and more things.
10:32Why did Russia stay?
10:35Why did the Russian delegation stay in Istanbul?
10:39It's embarrassing, isn't it?
10:41Well, it is embarrassing.
10:42It's embarrassing.
10:44Let's call it like it is.
10:46It's embarrassing to have someone tell you we're going to meet at 10 o'clock,
10:53and then they say, oh, there's going to be a delay until 2 o'clock.
10:58Okay.
10:59No, no, no, no.
11:00There's going to be a delay until 6 o'clock.
11:03Meanwhile, all they're doing is trash-talking you.
11:06They're trash-talking you, your country, your qualifications as negotiators, your president, your people.
11:13They're trash-talking you nonstop as you're sitting in Istanbul,
11:16and then they tell you at 6 o'clock, oh, we're going to have a meeting tomorrow,
11:20so just sit tight, and we'll take the meeting tomorrow.
11:22Sorry.
11:23I thought it was my view of things.
11:26I'm sure you'll explain why they stayed, and I think I understand why they stayed.
11:31But enough's enough.
11:34Sooner or later, you have to say if you're Russia, you have to say, you know what?
11:37We said Thursday our team's there six hours.
11:41You guys are not serious.
11:42We're taking our stuff, and we're leaving.
11:44I know.
11:45Am I being too hardline here?
11:48No, you're not being too hardline.
11:49I mean the reason they stayed is very simple.
11:51The Americans and the Turks asked them to stay.
11:54So what?
11:55So what?
11:56So what?
11:57The United States and Turkey are – Turkey's supplying weapons to Ukraine,
12:00and the United States, well, we know what the United States is doing with Ukraine.
12:03So what?
12:04I know.
12:05I know, but that was the reason.
12:06I mean the Americans and the Turks asked them to stay.
12:08Yeah, but –
12:09Other countries are also expecting them to stay.
12:11China, Brazil, all of these places want them to stay.
12:14So this is why they stayed.
12:15And, you know, I have to say, again, having been involved in many, many negotiations,
12:22this is not so unusual.
12:23I mean I have been – I've turned up for negotiations myself.
12:27I've been expecting people to turn up.
12:29They don't turn up.
12:30There's usually rows, hysteria, anger, tantrums, all that kind of thing.
12:34This isn't that unusual, by the way, in some types of negotiations,
12:38not typical in diplomatic negotiations.
12:41But then eventually, as I said, they do come, and then you start talking,
12:46and it cannot – sometimes it isn't very easy.
12:49But anyway, that's the decision the Russians made.
12:52They've always been saying that they are prepared to go – to resume talks
12:59with the Ukrainians, and they took that political decision.
13:04They sent a delegation to Istanbul.
13:07They weren't prepared to bring it back, not whilst the possibility
13:11of a meeting was still in the air.
13:13So, you know, that was the decision they made.
13:16I suspect there are people in Russia who are asking that very same question,
13:21and they'll be saying, you know, why are we even meeting with the Ukrainians?
13:26Is it really useful to us to have the Americans there?
13:32I'm going to suggest that in some ways it probably is.
13:38Again, maybe the closest analogy is the Vietnam negotiations
13:45which took place in Paris.
13:48Many people don't know this, but we had exactly the same kind
13:51of theatrics from the South Vietnamese – well, similar theatrics,
13:56not quite as bad as this – from the South Vietnamese in advance
13:59of those negotiations.
14:01There was months of rows about the table, the kind of layout of the table.
14:07Eventually, the negotiations did get underway.
14:12The North Vietnamese stayed where they were, and over time,
14:19the negotiations became negotiations between the North Vietnamese
14:24and the Americans because the Americans were in the room,
14:28and the South Vietnamese basically eased out.
14:32And I would not be surprised, given that the Americans are going
14:36to be in the room this time, if we start to get something similar.
14:40Well, maybe.
14:42Maybe we will, but I think it's moving in a totally – maybe
14:47a similar direction, but it's going way past that because now
14:50the narrative coming from the United States is that the only two people
14:54that can solve the conflict in Ukraine is Trump and Putin.
14:59And it's no coincidence.
15:01Yes.
15:02It's no coincidence that Trump said this, that Rubio said this,
15:06that – what's his name – Gorka?
15:09Gorka said this.
15:10Not that he's a high-level official, but anyway, he said it as well.
15:13So you have all of these U.S. officials now pretty much saying
15:17the same thing, which is that the only way to solve this conflict
15:23is for Trump and Putin to meet.
15:26That's the only way you solve this.
15:28So we've gone from Russia, Ukraine, bilateral talks
15:34without any preconditions to Trump and Putin now meeting.
15:39It seems like everything's now been scrapped.
15:41Everything, everything.
15:42Just forget about everything.
15:43What we really need now is the U.S. president
15:45and the Russian president sitting down to solve Project Ukraine.
15:49Comment on that and then also answer the question, to what end?
15:55I mean, is Trump ready to listen to the terms, the June 2024 terms?
16:01Is he ready to agree to those?
16:04Is he speaking on behalf of Ukraine as the country that has the proxy,
16:10the U.S.? Ukraine is the U.S.'s proxy.
16:12So is he speaking on the proxy's behalf now?
16:16Because of the minerals deal, now that he owns pretty much all of Ukraine,
16:20can he now speak on behalf of Ukraine?
16:23To what end is this meeting?
16:26What's the goal of the meeting between Putin and Trump?
16:28With regards to Ukraine, I would say that they have a lot
16:31of other things to talk about.
16:33They have a lot of diplomacy to conduct.
16:35They have a denormalization of relations.
16:37They have to talk about so many other topics.
16:40Ukraine is just one of many topics.
16:42All excellent questions.
16:43And can I say straight away again, I mean, there's good grounds
16:47from a Russian point of view to be very nervous about this process.
16:52But let's just unpack it and let's go a little bit back.
16:56You know, we have the Americans.
16:58They come in.
17:00To repeat again, I don't think they should have involved themselves
17:04in this process at all.
17:06I think Trump, the Americans are going to have no end of trouble
17:10as a result of this.
17:11That's another story.
17:12Let's park that to one side now.
17:14Okay.
17:15The Americans come in.
17:17They want negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
17:21They want the negotiations to be preceded by a ceasefire.
17:27The Russians refuse a ceasefire.
17:30Putin said no.
17:32There's no sign at the moment that the Russians are going to move
17:35or shift from that position.
17:37The Americans go on insisting on a ceasefire.
17:41They have meetings with Zelensky.
17:43They get Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire.
17:46The ceasefire proposal is picked up by the Europeans.
17:50We have Kellogg's plan, the whole idea of sending European troops
17:55to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire.
17:58All of that, the Russians maintain their position.
18:01They're not interested in a ceasefire.
18:03They are prepared to engage in direct negotiations.
18:08We've now got to a position which basically is the Russian position.
18:12We have direct negotiations and we have no ceasefire.
18:15Just a few days ago, just on Saturday, Kellogg was saying,
18:20ceasefire first, negotiations after.
18:23The Russian position, negotiations first.
18:28Then, eventually, if those work, we move towards a ceasefire.
18:34If you are going to settle this conflict diplomatically,
18:40which I'm not by any means convinced you can, by the way,
18:44then I've always taken the view that it has to be done
18:47between the Americans and the Russians directly,
18:51that the Ukrainians can't themselves be involved because, as we saw,
18:55Zelensky will never come to a position where he agrees to anything
18:59that makes any kind of sense from a Russian point of view.
19:03It depends very much whether the Americans really want to see
19:07a settlement of the conflict.
19:09I think some do.
19:10I think others don't.
19:12I think Lindsey Graham and the people that he represents
19:15don't really want to see a settlement that the Russians
19:19would regard as sustainable.
19:22Rubio, Kellogg.
19:24All of those people, all of those people, and Rubio is there.
19:28He's actually in the meeting.
19:31The only way out of this is direct negotiations
19:34between the Americans and the Russians.
19:37Well, isn't that exactly what Trump is now proposing?
19:41He's proposing that he and Putin, not he, Putin, and Zelensky,
19:48notice, come together and talk it out between them.
19:52Now, this is where the Russians need to be very careful
19:57because the Americans are now doing what they always do.
20:00By the way, this is, to repeat again,
20:03very typical American negotiating style.
20:06I've encountered this.
20:08I've negotiated with American law firms and people of that kind.
20:12They try to bounce you into a meeting quickly,
20:17and then they talk it up when they say this is, you know,
20:20everything's going to be sorted out at this meeting.
20:23They put enormous pressure on you to make concessions
20:27at this meeting, which you agreed to too early.
20:31And as I said, it's typical American negotiating style.
20:36The Russians, I think, will try to play this long.
20:43They'll say, look, meeting isn't ready.
20:45We're not ready.
20:46We're absolutely up for a meeting between Putin and Trump.
20:50We agreed to the fact that there should be a meeting
20:54between Putin and Trump at the first conversation
20:57between Trump and Putin back in February.
21:01So let's have that meeting.
21:03We've got to carefully prepare for that meeting.
21:05We have to see some progress in the negotiations
21:09in Istanbul first, and we've got an awful lot
21:12of other things to discuss.
21:14And the next step maybe that we should take is a bilateral meeting
21:17between our people and your people, between Lavrov and Rubio,
21:21between our various experts, and we'll see where this goes.
21:25But to me, this is starting to look like a drift
21:30towards the Americans and the Russians trying
21:34to settle this conflict between each other with Zelensky
21:40and the Ukrainians basically being told at the end
21:46what the deal is going to be, which is exactly, in the end,
21:50what happened with the conflict in Vietnam.
21:52The North Vietnamese and the Americans settled it between them.
21:56The South Vietnamese were extremely unhappy and tried
22:00to sabotage the deal to their disastrous,
22:04with the disastrous results for them, by the way.
22:07But the Americans and the North Vietnamese came
22:10to the agreement with each other.
22:12It took a long time to sort out and negotiate,
22:19but that was what happened.
22:22It was agreed between the Americans
22:24and the North Vietnamese.
22:26It was agreed, if you remember, in Afghanistan between the Americans
22:30and the Taliban, and the proxy was pushed aside.
22:35And that's perhaps the direction of travel again.
22:39But, you know, to say that this is going to be straightforward
22:43and to say that there aren't enormous traps for each side here
22:49and that the Russians in particular don't need to be very careful
22:54is an understatement.
22:57The key thing about the way that the Russians are organising
23:02their negotiations this time is, as I said,
23:05that the military are actively involved.
23:08Apparently, the entire group of, you know, all the military commanders
23:13who are fighting, of the forces fighting in Ukraine,
23:17participated in the meeting where the remit
23:22of the negotiating team was agreed.
23:24As I said, a senior military official has now been appointed
23:28to the Security Council.
23:32And by the way, just to reiterate,
23:36another very talented military commander, General Medvedchev,
23:42has now been appointed to a very key role
23:45in the military situation in Moscow, which strongly suggests
23:51that he's being put in charge of the ground forces in Moscow
23:56in order to supervise the summer offensive,
23:59which is probably coming.
24:01So, I mean, you know, that's how the position from the Russians
24:06looks to me at this moment.
24:08But, you know, it's possible that, you know,
24:11Putin will be talked into meeting with Trump
24:14and he might make concessions to Trump,
24:16which will not be popular in Russia at all, and, you know, who knows.
24:21But for the moment, at least, this is the stance
24:24that the Russians are taking.
24:26Yeah, that's the general that has been killed by Ukraine.
24:31About three times, I believe.
24:32Thirty times, yeah.
24:33Yeah.
24:34Yeah, right.
24:35He's a badass.
24:36He's a badass.
24:37And if he is going to be in charge of the ground forces,
24:40then it spells trouble for the collective West.
24:42Yes.
24:43No doubt about it.
24:44Yes.
24:45That's an interesting signal from Russia.
24:47What capabilities does Trump have to…
24:56What can he do to tell the proxy to agree to an agreement
25:02that he makes with Putin?
25:04I mean, anything short of removing Zelensky.
25:08That's the only way you're going to make this thing work
25:10because Zelensky has already said he's not going to budge.
25:13So, I mean…
25:15And this takes me to my next question.
25:18It seems very unorthodox to have Trump just come in
25:22and agree to Istanbul Plus.
25:26Yeah.
25:27I mean, this doesn't make any sense.
25:29Don't you need to have a whole lot of meetings
25:32between both sides in order to prepare for a summit
25:35between Trump and Putin?
25:37Is Trump just going to turn up and say,
25:39okay, these are your June 2024 terms.
25:42I see, okay, five oblasts.
25:44Crimea on four oblasts.
25:46The entirety of the oblasts are Russian.
25:49Ukraine has to leave.
25:50No NATO.
25:51All of these things.
25:52Is Trump just going to look at all this stuff and say,
25:54okay, I agree to it?
25:55Or is he going to negotiate these points?
25:57No.
25:58He's not in a position to negotiate these points.
26:01I mean, has there been some sort of diplomacy going on
26:06in the background between the United States and Russia
26:08that we don't know about?
26:09Are we all being played?
26:11I don't know.
26:12I've got all these questions in my head
26:13because something feels very off
26:16when you have all of these U.S. government officials
26:19all of a sudden saying that a meeting between Trump
26:21and Putin is imminent.
26:23They could be bluffing.
26:24They could be BSing.
26:25That's also very possible.
26:27What are your thoughts?
26:29Just to repeat again, bluffing is very much part
26:35of the American negotiating style.
26:37So saying that a meeting is around the corner,
26:39it's going to happen in a couple of days
26:42and that kind of thing.
26:43I mean, the Americans in the past have said ceasefires
26:46were going to be agreed in a couple of days.
26:48Or they said in one day we'll wipe it out.
26:50Exactly.
26:51I mean, one shouldn't be critical of this, by the way.
26:56I think people misunderstand this.
27:00A lot of people laugh at Trump because he said
27:04that he'd get it all sorted out in a day
27:06and then in 100 days and things of that kind.
27:10Maybe if he's not part of normal diplomatic
27:14negotiating practice, nothing that we've seen,
27:16by the way, over the last couple of months
27:19is normal negotiating diplomatic practice.
27:24But in commercial negotiations, especially dealing
27:26with Americans, it is absolutely standard.
27:29As I said, the Americans come along.
27:31They say, look, we've got all of these wonderful plans,
27:33all these wonderful ideas.
27:34We've got to move forward.
27:36We've got to agree.
27:37And they go around telling everybody,
27:40the other sides really, ready to meet.
27:43They're ready to talk.
27:44They're ready to agree.
27:46Everything's almost done.
27:49I mean, we've seen this pattern right through
27:51the whole last three months, that this is the meeting
27:55is going to happen.
27:56It's going to happen tomorrow.
27:57It's going to happen next week.
27:58It's going to happen in a few days' time.
28:00And of course, it puts pressure.
28:02The intention is, again, always to put pressure
28:07on the other side to agree to what the Americans
28:11are saying, because of course, if they don't,
28:14then always it looks like they're acting as spoilers,
28:17that this wonderful process is on the move.
28:21We're closing in on the deal.
28:23And it's the other side that's drawing back
28:25and not closing in on the deal.
28:27So, yes, I suspect there are contacts between the Russians
28:31and the Americans now.
28:32I mean, I don't know how extensive they are,
28:35but clearly there is some kind of channel of contact.
28:40I mean, we know that the Russians, for example,
28:42sent to the Americans, to Rubio in fact,
28:45details of all the ceasefire violations of the energy
28:48truce that the Ukrainians carried out.
28:52So, you know, that we know that there is some flow
28:57backwards and forwards.
28:58There don't seem to be meetings between officials
29:03to any great degree.
29:06Lavrov and Rubio have had, I think, is it two meetings?
29:13Rubio and Lavrov have spoken to each other once
29:18or twice that we know about.
29:20There may have been more telephone calls that we don't know about,
29:23but I don't really get the sense of that.
29:25So, at the moment, I get the sense that this is all
29:28still being conducted to some extent from a distance.
29:35But the Americans perhaps are coming round to the view
29:43that the only way to get this thing forward is for the US
29:47to deal with the Russians directly.
29:51And that's what they're now trying to do.
29:53And this is where we come back to a point which I made right
29:56at the beginning of this whole process,
29:58which is that the Americans are conveying impatience
30:01and urgency.
30:02They want to get this thing done and sorted out
30:05as quickly as possible.
30:07And I think the reason is that Trump wants to get United States
30:12as quickly as possible out of the conflict in Ukraine.
30:16And this is part of the pressure.
30:22I think Trump understands now he's not going to get his ceasefire,
30:27the freeze of the conflict on the terms that he expected.
30:31He understands that there have to be direct negotiations
30:34with the Russians.
30:36He is not going to concede.
30:38Going back to your question, Istanbul plus, straight away.
30:44Vance has already said that the Russians are asking too much.
30:50But remember, too much is determined.
30:54What is too much is determined by the battlefield realities.
30:58If we do see a Russian offensive over the next couple of weeks,
31:01if the Russians start reaching the Dnieper,
31:04if they cross the Dnieper in a few places,
31:06if they capture some of the big cities in Donbas, Slovyansk,
31:10Kramatorsk, those places, then, of course,
31:13in a few months' time, it may seem that the Russian demands
31:18are not quite as excessive as the Western media is claiming
31:27that they are, and as people like Vance and Kellogg are saying.
31:33So this is a fluid situation, and we just have to see where it goes.
31:39But anyway, the point is the trajectory, it seems to me,
31:44is towards negotiations now between the Americans and the Russians.
31:49There are, as I said, reasons from a Russian point of view
31:54for concern about that, but probably,
31:59if you're going to negotiate an end to this conflict at all,
32:02that is how it has to be done.
32:05Yeah, we started out with negotiations between the United States and Russia.
32:09That's how this started out.
32:10Exactly, a couple of weeks ago, and that looked promising.
32:15And then, of course, Zelensky got involved,
32:18and more importantly, the Europeans got involved.
32:21They all threw collectively a fit.
32:23They were complaining about the fact that they were being excluded
32:26from the negotiations.
32:28Everything got completely derailed, and we got into this mess
32:32about ceasefires and Kellogg plans and all of that,
32:36which has basically wasted weeks and months of time.
32:40Which Trump ended up endorsing.
32:42What, sorry?
32:43Which Trump ended up endorsing.
32:44Endorsing, and I'm afraid there's no guarantee
32:48that we are out of that either.
32:51I mean, it could very well be that over the next couple of days
32:57or weeks or months, the Europeans will again try
33:00to insert themselves into this process until the Americans
33:06finally tell the Europeans, look, just keep out of the way.
33:10We're going to deal with the Russians by ourselves.
33:13Until the Americans take, this goes back to your point
33:17about people indulging, you know, this enfant terrible,
33:23which is what Zelensky basically is, this spoiled child
33:26who smashes the furniture whenever and throws a tantrum
33:30whenever things don't go his way.
33:32Until people take Zelensky properly to one side
33:36and tell him, enough.
33:37We've had absolutely as much of this as we're prepared to take.
33:40We're not prepared to indulge you anymore.
33:42Go back to Kiev and stay there and let the adults
33:46sort this out between them.
33:48Until that happens.
33:50It already happened.
33:52What, sorry?
33:53It already happened.
33:54And then they walked it back.
33:55This is what I'm trying to say.
33:57Exactly.
33:58Until they finally, conclusively, definitively do that
34:03and do that with Zelensky's European fan club as well.
34:09This whole process always has that potential
34:13to simply go completely off the rails, which is what it did.
34:17So we got, bear in mind, we've had an incredibly narrow escape,
34:24actually, just over the last couple of days, the last week.
34:28And it was entirely dexterous diplomacy from Putin
34:33that kept this thing on the road.
34:37Because on Saturday, we were talking about ultimatums,
34:42bone-crushing sanctions, all that kind of thing,
34:47which is clearly intended to derail the whole negotiation process
34:53and any moves towards an American-Russian rapprochement.
34:58And Putin came up with this proposal for direct negotiations
35:03and said he was going to send this negotiating team to Istanbul.
35:08And you correctly said at the time that this is Putin offering Trump an off-ramp.
35:15And Trump seized it.
35:17And that's why we're back.
35:20We've managed to get back to the idea of direct negotiations
35:24between the Americans and the Russians.
35:26But there is no guarantee, none, none at all,
35:30unless and until the Americans finally do that,
35:35until and unless Trump finally stops listening to people like Kellogg.
35:42Basically, I think he should sack Kellogg.
35:45That's my own personal view.
35:47Until that happens, there is every possibility
35:52that this could go completely off the rails all over again.
35:57So, you know, this is there's an awful lot.
36:00I mean, we're at the beginning of a process
36:03and we can't say definitively where it's going to go.
36:07But as of this morning, it does look as if we're gradually moving towards
36:16or perhaps quickly moving towards direct negotiations
36:20between the Americans and the Russians to settle this thing.
36:23I don't think this is satisfactory, by the way,
36:26from an American point of view, or at least from Trump's point of view,
36:31because any deal that emerges he will own
36:35and it could probably take him a long, long time to negotiate
36:38and there'll be all kinds of criticisms of him.
36:40And, well, we've talked about that already.
36:42There are huge risks in this from the Russian side
36:49because they're going to be under pressure to make concessions
36:53to the Americans, which they might not want to make.
36:56I think that is, by the way, why the military insisted,
37:00because clearly that's what happened.
37:02The military in Moscow insisted that this time
37:06they must be directly involved.
37:09So, I mean, there's no guarantee for either side
37:14that this is going to come up with any kind of successful
37:19outcome, but at least the direction of travel as of today
37:25is towards direct American-Russian talks.
37:28Well, the military may be worried that Putin may make some concessions.
37:35Well, that's exactly it.
37:36Given the history of how all of this has played out,
37:39there have been many concessions made by Russia,
37:41many, many, many concessions made by Russia towards the West.
37:47Many concessions.
37:48That is exactly what has happened.
37:52Putin announces direct negotiations on Saturday.
37:56You have this strange silence in Moscow for several days.
38:01I can tell you exactly what I think happened.
38:04The moment they heard about negotiations,
38:07the military were ringing the Kremlin and they're saying,
38:11what is this all about?
38:12Why haven't we been consulted before?
38:15We insist on being consulted.
38:18And then there's this massive meeting in the Kremlin.
38:21And we know that there was a big discussion taking place there.
38:24And we know that the chief of the general staff was present
38:27with his officials.
38:29And we see these sudden appointments.
38:32A senior military official is now, I mean,
38:37Selyukov, because he's going to be at the Security Council,
38:41he's going to be there in the Kremlin.
38:43There's actually going to be a senior military official in the Kremlin
38:48from this point.
38:49So this is exactly what happened.
38:52The military are now insisting that they must have a say.
38:58And I'm not saying that there was exactly a row,
39:01but this is why the military were brought in.
39:06Everyone that's been following this,
39:09they're always concerned about the concessions that Russia made.
39:12Exactly.
39:13Because of how everything has unfolded,
39:17it was many concessions that Russia made over many years,
39:21which has brought us to where we are in a way.
39:24Well, exactly.
39:25So that's why you have several military officials on the negotiating team,
39:31while you have the chief of military intelligence who reports directly
39:36to Gerasimov, to the chief of the general staff,
39:39on the negotiating team.
39:41As I said, the military are now insisting on a voice.
39:46But again, they may insist on a voice,
39:49but Putin remains the president and the decisions will be his.
39:55But you can see the concerns on the Russian side.
40:00And there are also big risks here for the Americans, too.
40:05When I say the Americans, I mean the Trump administration.
40:08Because if Trump really does want to start moving towards a settlement
40:14of the Ukraine conflict, which satisfies Russian security concerns,
40:20then there's going to be all hell to pay in the United States.
40:23And, of course, the Europeans are going to go berserk.
40:26So far, Putin has played this very well, masterfully.
40:30Yes.
40:31I still believe, I listen to your reasons, and I understand them.
40:35And obviously, Putin is the president of Russia.
40:37He'll decide how all of this goes down.
40:40It was unacceptable for these delays in Turkey and Istanbul.
40:45And I don't know.
40:47I think that having people wait around for one day and everything
40:53that happened yesterday, the trash talking and all of this stuff,
40:56I think it's just too much.
40:57I really think it's too much.
41:00Anyway, yeah.
41:01I would agree.
41:02I would absolutely agree.
41:05I understand why it was done.
41:07I mean, you can argue that there was a different course
41:10ought to have been followed.
41:12But I'm sure that there were all kinds of people calling Kremlin again,
41:18saying, for God's sake, we're going to get the Ukrainians there.
41:24Keep your people in Istanbul.
41:26I agree.
41:27The Americans, the Turks, obviously, probably the Brazilians,
41:33not that I think the Russians pay much attention to them.
41:36And for all I know, China, India, who knows who.
41:39So there are all of these things going on behind the scenes,
41:44which we simply don't know about.
41:46We don't know who's spoken to whom.
41:48I mean, it's not impossible, for example, that Xi Jinping
41:53might have called Putin.
41:55They don't report their telephone calls.
41:57So all kinds of things probably going on over the last couple of days,
42:02which we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
42:07And it's not always easy to work out what's going on below the surface
42:11because so much of it is hidden from us.
42:14One day in 20 years' time, we'll get the full details.
42:18But at the moment, we don't have them.
42:20And we have to try to do the best that we can to guess our way through.
42:26And I think, just to say this about ourselves,
42:29I think we've tended not just to guess,
42:34but to infer things out very well on this journey.
42:38You know what the problem is with yesterday and Russia agreeing
42:43with all the pressure from the U.S., from Turkey, perhaps from China,
42:46perhaps from India, who knows, perhaps from Lula,
42:49agreeing to stay in Istanbul is that they are doing
42:55these people a favor.
42:56They're saying, okay, we'll stay in Istanbul.
42:58The problem is that much of the collective West,
43:02including people in the administrations of the countries
43:05that are asking them to stay, are going to infer this
43:08as some sort of weakness on Russia.
43:10Well, exactly.
43:11This is how they're going to take it.
43:12Exactly.
43:13And they're going to use it against them.
43:15Well, not exactly weakness, but something in some ways more insidious.
43:20I mean, you chose to stay.
43:22We're really grateful for that.
43:23Now we've got to move this thing forward.
43:25Now we've got the talks done.
43:27So can't you give us a bit here?
43:29Can't you give us a bit there?
43:31And, again, the Russians put out that statement.
43:34They got their chief negotiator, Medinsky,
43:37to put out the statement that he made yesterday.
43:41And it was a very interesting statement, actually,
43:43because a lot of the media said that he was talking about compromises,
43:49and then the Russians immediately said he wasn't talking about compromises.
43:53He was talking about solutions.
43:55And he was saying that this is a resumption of Istanbul
43:58and that he's going to go to look at the root causes of the conflict.
44:03So it was as if the Russians were going out of their way
44:08to make clear that their position remains the same as always.
44:13Now, presumably, they did that precisely because they're worried
44:17that they're going to be put under all that kind of pressure.
44:20But that doesn't mean, again, to stress again,
44:23you could say things, and then when you're in the room,
44:27when the pressure comes, when the phone calls start coming in from China,
44:32I mean, I don't know what role the Chinese are playing in this.
44:36So, you know, let's not make too many judgments.
44:38When the calls start coming in,
44:40when the Americans start putting the pressure on you,
44:42and by the way, I know what it's like to be under pressure from Americans.
44:47I mean, I've experienced this.
44:49I mean, you get calls at every hour of the day.
44:52You get all the pressure, and you see leaks in the media, all of that.
44:59So when that happens, it's going to require an awful lot of moral strength,
45:07if I can put it like that, to resist all of this.
45:11And whether they will do that,
45:14given that they've already made the concession of staying in Istanbul at all,
45:20despite all of that rhetoric.
45:22Made the concession.
45:23Yeah, it was a concession.
45:24They already made the concession.
45:25That's the key word.
45:26Putin said that they'd be there on the 15th.
45:29Yeah.
45:30On the 15th.
45:31He didn't say they'd be there on the 16th.
45:33I mean, it's an important point to say.
45:35I understand why it happened.
45:40I think in itself, it was the correct decision.
45:46It didn't concede anything of substance.
45:50But, you know, you're right.
45:51I mean, the other side are going to look at this.
45:55They're not probably, as I said, they won't see it as a weakening.
45:59But they'll say, you know, the Russians clearly want to talk,
46:04so let's see whether we can get them to start moving a bit more in our direction.
46:09The Russians at the moment, by the way, if they want to take a hard line,
46:13have a great ally who is Zelensky, who at the moment is demanding impossible things.
46:19If the Ukrainians really are only interested in talking about 30-day ceasefires,
46:24then, as I said, that helps the Russians maintain their position
46:30and perhaps facilitates the point when we start getting direct discussions between the Russians and the U.S.
46:40Bear in mind, that's what happened, as I said, in Paris with the North Vietnamese.
46:44That's what happened in Doha with the Taliban.
46:48Eventually, it became a bilateral negotiation between them and the Americans.
46:58Okay, so let's wrap up the video on that point.
47:03When all of this is over, the Istanbul talks,
47:06we're going to get more pressure falling on Trump and his administration from Ukraine,
47:11from the Europeans, to approve sanctions on Russia.
47:14That's going to come towards Trump.
47:17Trump is now saying, I want to meet with Putin, president to president.
47:25The way out for the Trump administration, for Project Ukraine,
47:30if he wants a way out of this, if he genuinely wants a way out of this,
47:34there is only one way he could thread the needle, in my opinion.
47:38Only one way.
47:40He needs to phrase this as not about just Project Ukraine.
47:45Absolutely.
47:46I want to meet with Putin so that we can try to solve Project Ukraine,
47:51but also we need to normalize relations and we need to talk about A, B, C, and D.
47:57He needs to spell out what they need to talk about.
47:59We need to talk about nuclear proliferation.
48:01We need to talk about terrorism.
48:02We need to talk about whatever.
48:04Spell it out.
48:06Also, if we can solve Ukraine, we will.
48:12If we can't, no problem.
48:15For me, it's Biden's war.
48:17What can I do?
48:18That's the message that he needs to get out there.
48:20That's the way he threads this needle.
48:22Will he do it?
48:23So far, he is putting out the message,
48:25I'm going to solve Project Ukraine if I meet with Putin.
48:28I think that's the wrong message.
48:29He needs to make Project Ukraine a part of a much bigger picture.
48:34I think if he says that, he will also speed up Russia's interest in having a meeting
48:43because Russia has also said that they want to talk with the United States,
48:47not just about Ukraine, but about a bigger, wider security architecture in Europe.
48:52Absolutely.
48:53What do you think?
48:54I am in absolute complete agreement with that.
48:57That has to be the way forward.
48:59A summit meeting between Putin and Trump just about Ukraine is a potential disaster.
49:06It's a disaster.
49:07It's a train wreck.
49:08A summit meeting between Putin and Trump,
49:12which is all about the full range of the relationship between the two countries,
49:16including arms control, economic issues, energy, stability in Europe, the Middle East, Iran,
49:26relations with China, relations with North Korea, all of that.
49:31That is the kind of meeting—
49:35A lot to talk about.
49:36Exactly.
49:37That is the kind of meeting we need to have,
49:39the sort of meeting we haven't had, by the way, since the Cold War.
49:43I mean, it was the kind of meeting that Nixon and Brezhnev used to have with each other,
49:48and they actually helped to de-escalate tensions and improve the international atmosphere.
49:56But no, that kind of meeting, absolutely.
49:59The trouble Trump faces, by the way, it isn't the Europeans principally.
50:05The Europeans are there, and they're always a nuisance, and they're also a trouble.
50:10The Ukrainians, obviously, as we said, are out of control.
50:16But ultimately, Ukraine is so dependent on the U.S. that there's a limit to what they can do.
50:22The problem Trump faces always is in Washington.
50:28It's with people within his administration who are near cons, to say it straightforwardly.
50:35And that massive group of people in the political system who don't want any kind of rapprochement with Russia.
50:46Lindsey Graham.
50:48I mention Lindsey Graham because he's now the focus of all of this.
50:51He appears to have become or appointed himself their point man.
50:55He's everywhere now.
50:56He's talking all the time.
50:58He's turning up in Turkey.
51:00What was he doing in Turkey?
51:03Well, I can tell you exactly what he's doing in Turkey.
51:06He is putting pressure.
51:08Yeah, he's putting pressure on Rubio and ultimately on Trump and Trump to get them to take the hardest line possible.
51:17And he claims he may not be telling the truth here, by the way.
51:21But he claims there are 72 senators behind him, which is enough if he really has them to actually get an impeachment through.
51:31Just saying.
51:32So this is what this is.
51:35This is the challenge Trump always faces.
51:38I agree.
51:39Trump has half of the US population, if not more behind him.
51:43Of course.
51:44Exactly.
51:45That's his strength.
51:46And can I say something else about Trump?
51:48I mean, not only does Trump have half the population behind him on Ukraine, he probably has more than half, significantly more than half.
51:59I mean, are they really going to impeach him because he's going to have a meeting with Putin and move the dial forward towards a de-escalation of tensions between America and Russia, which averts World War Three?
52:12Oh, that's a crazy idea.
52:15So I hope that Trump pays no attention to this.
52:18And there's something else I have to say about Trump.
52:20And I said this on several of my programs.
52:24This is a president who not only undoubtedly has extraordinary political skills, but who is able to do things politically that no other president can do.
52:39He got into this situation where he had this economic war with China with 145 percent tariffs.
52:49And then he gets a meeting organized with China and Switzerland.
52:55He brings the tariffs all the way down.
53:00And there seems to be no political cost to him.
53:04I mean, what other president could have done that?
53:07I can't imagine one.
53:08I mean, imagine if, say, Obama or Clinton had been maneuvered into a situation like that.
53:14It would have been the end of their presidency.
53:16Yet Trump is able.
53:18He has such a strong base of support in the United States.
53:25He is such a skillful politician.
53:29He has such ability to convey his message to the American people.
53:35He may be doing it in a very unorthodox and unconventional way, but he's able to advance and retreat and maneuver in a way that no other American president can do.
53:47So absolutely, he can meet with Putin.
53:50He can have his discussions with Putin.
53:52He can agree arms control and all of these other issues with Putin.
53:56And I suspect that more than any other president, he'd come out of this unscathed.
54:02And if he does a deal with Putin over Ukraine, again, the American people will breathe a sigh of relief.
54:07And we'll say, thank God the president is doing something sensible and wise over Ukraine.
54:13No one else has done.
54:15And if you can't find a deal on Ukraine just to wrap up the video, you can then walk away.
54:19Exactly.
54:20And still keep the relations with Russia.
54:22Still a lot of them.
54:23Indeed.
54:24And still the American people would be happy to support that.
54:28This president is unusual in the degree of political strength and in the solidity of his position in the United States.
54:39And his opponents, his Democratic Party opponents, are nowhere.
54:44They're continuing to lose support.
54:47All right.
54:48We'll end the video there.
54:49The Durand.
54:50Locals.com.
54:51We are on Rumble Odyssey.
54:52Bitchute Telegram.
54:53Rock for the next.
54:54Go to the Durand shop.
54:55Pick up some merch.
54:56Link in the description box down below.
54:57Take care.