Risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan?

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00:00India's nuclear-capable Agni-5 missile has a range of over 5,000 Kiyotas.

00:04In the latest India-Pakistan standoff, there were no ultimatums, no red buttons.

00:09Yet the cycle of military retaliation, veiled signals, and swift international mediation

00:15quietly evoked the region's most dangerous shadow.

00:19The crisis didn't spiral towards nuclear war,

00:22but it was a reminder of how quickly tensions here can summon that specter.

00:26Even scientists have modeled how easily things could unravel.

00:30A 2019 study by a global team of scientists opened with a nightmare scenario

00:35where a terrorist attack on India's parliament in 2025 triggers a nuclear exchange with Pakistan.

00:42Six years later, a real-world standoff, though contained by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire on Saturday,

00:49stoked fears of a full-blown conflict.

00:52It also revived uneasy memories of how fragile stability in the region can be.

00:57As the crisis escalated, Pakistan sent dual signals, retaliating militarily while announcing

01:04a National Command Authority, NCA, meeting, a calculated reminder of its nuclear capability.

01:11The NCA oversees control and potential use of the country's nuclear arsenal.

01:15Whether this move was symbolic, strategic, or a genuine alert, we may never know.

01:22It also came just as U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly stepped in to defuse the spiral.

01:29President Trump said the U.S. didn't just broker a ceasefire, it averted a nuclear conflict.

01:35On Monday, in an address to the nation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said,

01:42There is no tolerance for nuclear blackmail.

01:45India will not be intimidated by nuclear threats.

01:48Any terrorist safe haven operating under this pretext will face precise and decisive strikes, Modi added.

01:54India and Pakistan each possess about 170 nuclear weapons, according to the think tank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, CIPRI.

02:04As of January 2024, CIPRI estimated there were 12,121 nuclear warheads worldwide.

02:12Of these, about 9,585 were held in military stockpiles, with 3,904 actively deployed, 60 more than the previous year.

02:22The U.S. and Russia together account for more than 8,000 nuclear weapons.

02:27The bulk of both India's and Pakistan's deployed arsenals lies in their land-based missile forces,

02:33though both are developing nuclear triads capable of delivering warheads by land, air, and sea,

02:39according to Christopher Clary, a security affairs expert at the University at Albany in the U.S.

02:44India likely has a larger air leg, aircraft capable of delivering nuclear weapons, than Pakistan.