'Chel Diokno, Leila de Lima did very well'
Interview kina Dr. Mahar Mangahas, Chair Emeritus, SWS at Prof. Ranjit Rye, U.P. Diliman Dept. of Political Science/Fellow, OCTA Research as of 9:26 a.m. ng May 13, 2025.
Panoorin ang 32-hour special coverage ng GMA Integrated News para sa #Eleksyon2025!
WATCH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyC7UAqmq4c
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Interview kina Dr. Mahar Mangahas, Chair Emeritus, SWS at Prof. Ranjit Rye, U.P. Diliman Dept. of Political Science/Fellow, OCTA Research as of 9:26 a.m. ng May 13, 2025.
Panoorin ang 32-hour special coverage ng GMA Integrated News para sa #Eleksyon2025!
WATCH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyC7UAqmq4c
Welcome to the official YouTube channel of GMA Integrated News, the News Authority of the Filipino. Updated daily with the latest top news and breaking news.
Subscribe to the GMA Integrated News channel! https://www.youtube.com/@gmanews
Visit our website - https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/
Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/gmanews
TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@gmanews
Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/gmanews/
Twitter/X - https://x.com/gmanews
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TVTranscript
00:00Sir, yan, sa local, sa local race, yung ganung-ganung tali na, pwede na yung...
00:07Oo nga, ipoproclaim na. Ibig sabihin siya na. Pala.
00:11Mas madaling masabi pagka-local, no? Professor?
00:16First of all, show us, please, the percentages.
00:20Yes. Of the voters. The voting population in that area.
00:25That's right. That's right.
00:26Ah, I see. While waiting for those percentages, maybe we can talk about how the impeachment is looking like,
00:32considering the present crop of winners that we have.
00:36Do you think Sarah will be able to get the nine senators she needs to survive politically?
00:44Because I understand, but you need two-thirds to impeach.
00:47So Sarah would basically need one-third plus one to stay alive.
00:51Yeah. And to avoid perpetual disqualification from public office.
00:55She's already impeached.
00:57Yeah, she's already impeached.
00:58She's the trial that's convicted.
00:59Yes, the trial.
00:59She's convicted, yeah.
01:00Yes.
01:02You know, she needs nine senators to be acquitted.
01:05Yes.
01:05How many does she have in the current crop?
01:07Nine to be convicted.
01:09Not acquitted, sir. Acquitted.
01:10Nine to be acquitted.
01:13Nine senators have to say, yeah, she's not guilty.
01:17And so, then, you know, it's done.
01:20Right now, it's much closer than everyone thinks because, you know, the opposition has actually grown in this.
01:26If the trends continue, there are more opposition, members of the Duterte opposition, who are now in, and aligned with the Duterte,
01:35who are with the Alianza, but aligned with the Duterte on the impeachment.
01:39So, Professor, looking at this one, she has four. You would say she has four, right?
01:46She probably has more than that, actually, now.
01:50From the new batch?
01:50Yeah, from the new batch. So, it's likely, it's, you know, it's harder to impeach her now.
01:55Who would those be?
01:57Well, right now, she have...
01:58Yung Bongo, yung Bato Dalarosa.
01:59Yeah, and then you have Marcoleta, who's a lawyer, who's going to probably be a vocal defender of the Vice President.
02:07They've already said that they're, you know...
02:09Tapos si Camille Villar po.
02:10And we don't know how that's going to be, no?
02:13Is it safe to assume po na dahil in-endorse nga siya ni Vice President Sara Duterte that, you know, she will vote in favor of Sara?
02:21We don't want to preempt. These are going to be senator judges.
02:23Yes, but the politics of it seems clear. I mean, at least the Vice President articulated it when she endorsed them and made them part of the opposition ticket a few days ago.
02:34That there's an intent, not just to push an agenda forward, but also to help in the impeachment.
02:39Prof, pag nakita na natin yung final composition ng bagong Senado yan, siyempre magkakaroon pa ng realignments, shifting ng alliances.
02:48Alimbawa, yung last-minute endorsement ng PDP laban kay Camille Villar at Amy Marcos, hindi natin alam kung kasi natin aliyan sa sila.
02:57So, paano ba magiging...
02:59Mabilis eh, mabilis yung pagbago ng agos.
03:00But to be fair, we can't preempt, I can't talk for them, yeah.
03:04But, you know, the political alignment seemed to be in place for, you know, a possible acquittal.
03:10You know, that's my own view. It's not Okta's view. It's just my personal view of things.
03:14Looking at the politics of, you know, the positions of these different people.
03:18It will be much harder now to impeach her, given where the makeup of this, if the trends continue and this is how it's going to come out.
03:26But then again, you know, the impeachment is a process.
03:29There's going to be a trial, and we can't preempt the judges.
03:33If there's new evidence, maybe the decisions will change.
03:37Malayo pa, marami pang pwedeng mungyayari.
03:39Malayo pa, yeah. Professor, let me say, she's already impeached.
03:43Apo.
03:43Yes.
03:44It's the trial that has to come about.
03:46Now, the impeachment is actually a popular impeachment, because we have general certain people.
03:51Yeah, that's true.
03:52Apo.
03:54And that's the only thing.
03:55It's the conviction that is an issue, and that's decided by the Senate.
04:04That's the way it works.
04:05Another point that was brought up in one of the discussions was that, itong, ano, si Chell Diok, no, after two failed attempts in the Senate, ngayon, isa siyang nominee ng Akbayan, which is doing very well, right?
04:17Yes, yeah.
04:17Akbayan was one of the big stories here.
04:19Yes.
04:20Although, you know, in Okta, we have always seen them as getting one seat.
04:23We never thought that they would, in a sense, that also mirrors the kind of…
04:27Three seats, no?
04:28Yeah.
04:28Yeah, they're gonna get…
04:29Because with 6%, 2% each, they got three seats.
04:31They got three seats.
04:33They really did very well.
04:34So, you're looking at Chell Diok, possibly being one of the prosecutors.
04:37And not telling you that, Lila Delimas, ML, did very well also.
04:44So, you know, these are the things, these are these elements of change, no?
04:49Of course, the election, when you look at it, parang wala masyadang bago.
04:52Political dynasties pa rin, pamilya pa rin, yung mga clans, no?
04:56Pero may mga narantins na magbabago na I think we can all be happy, no?
05:02Kasi dahil yung mga botante natin ang babago, eh.
05:05O nga.
05:05Hindi totoo na bobotante ang Filipino voter.
05:08Nakita nyo na nasa Lila yan, si Kiko, pangilinan si Bam Aquino.
05:13And in the last few weeks, nakita mo yung mga botante natin, nag-isip sila, namili sila.
05:18They looked at performance, capabilities, and, you know, when you look at the…
05:22My students are saying it to me now, no?
05:25You know, the reality is better than the surveys.
05:27Because if they were looking at the surveys, they felt depressed because they'll be mostly entertainers and all of that.
05:32But they're happy with the reality that…
05:35But the reality is really, to emphasize, it's us, no?
05:38It's the everyday Filipino who came out to vote.
05:42So, yun yung inspiring in that sense.
05:44Does it have anything to do with what we were discussing, yung ang mga millennials, ang biggest…
05:49Age group natin yan, ang mga millennials.
05:52O hindi, tayo, tayo dito.
05:54No, yung youth vote.
05:55Dapat toto, dapat toto.
05:56Nabanggit nyo yung youth vote kanina.
05:58Yeah.
05:59Ako yung the Comelec.
06:01Something like close to 50% of our own voters are below 40 years old.
06:06Yes.
06:06About 33% were so-called millennials.
06:08So, millennials and Gen Zs are…
06:09Gen Zs, no?
06:10About 20 or 18%.
06:12So, you put them together.
06:14Of course, not all of them voted.
06:16I'm sure a lot of them, because of the heat yesterday, decided not to vote.
06:19Pumulan pa sa ibang lugar.
06:20But we still have to get the data, you know.
06:23But it would be interesting to see the voter composition.
06:26And of course, after the election, we're going to have an assessment of the elections.
06:29It's a regular thing that we saw with SWS and Pulse.
06:32We're also doing it in Okta.
06:34So, all elections, we have a special probe just to assess.
06:38And let's see what came out.
06:39Kung karamihan ng mga voter natin, Gen Z, Gen X, millennial, I guess mag-iba rin yung campaign strategy, no?
06:45So, what are we looking at?
06:46How has that changed now?
06:48So, parang mas maraming social media, how has that changed, no?
06:53Naku, 2028 na pag-uusapan natin.
06:54Ano ho kaya magiging mga pagbabago sa kampanya makikita natin?
06:58Social media was big.
06:58Social media was becoming big in 2022.
07:02It's a big factor now in the last midterm elections, 2025.
07:08It will, of course, be very influential in 2028.
07:11And, you know, double-edged siyang social media.
07:15Pwede siyang gamitin siyang force for information.
07:18And disinformation.
07:19Pero, Prof, may nakita ko.
07:19And halal ito ba, no?
07:20Candidates use it for both.
07:21May nakita ko observation.
07:23Mas discerning na raw yung social media users ngayon.
07:27This elections particularly.
07:29Dahil sa dami ng mga kumalat na fake news, disinformation,
07:34ito pa rin na nag-i-resulta.
07:36Ibig sabihin yung mga kabataan, yung youth vote nga,
07:38yung Gen Z millennials,
07:40mas naging discerning sila.
07:42Wala ka ng data to actually back that statement up.
07:46But it would be nice to know, no?
07:47If they actually are discerning.
07:50But I base my personal opinion on the fact that BAM and Kiko Won,
07:54they came from a very low base of support and suddenly surged, no?
07:59So, you know, one is that movement, that part of the opposition is actually alive and kicking.
08:05Many thought it was, you know, broken apart, in decline.
08:10But actually, they came forward and came up with all those votes, no?
08:14And of course, then the Duterte opposition is still alive and kicking, no?
08:18And very, very strong in certain places.
08:21So this will have some sort of impact in 2028,
08:24especially as this family, you know, retires.
08:27So the Marcos family, and wala naman silang heir.
08:30So, you know, the space is open for progressive politics.
08:33The space is open for different types of politics and different actors.
08:37So yun yung exciting part.
08:38And we hope that the voters will continue to vote for the country when they engage in elections.
08:44You know, lagi natin binabaliwala ng yung eleksyon, no?
08:47Kasi sa ibang bansa, hindi na nga nangyayari ito, eh.
08:50Sa ibang bansa, this is a, you know, this is not a right, no?
08:53A privilege to go out and vote and choose your leaders.
08:56So, we're thankful.
08:58It's not perfect.
08:59Our democracy is not perfect.
09:00But the fact that we're doing elections regularly, and, you know, still, people are engaged.
09:07I think more than, close to 80%, no?
09:10Averaging over the last four elections, 7 to 18.
09:13That's high, eh?
09:14That's high.
09:14In the U.S., 65% is a media.
09:17So, United States, hindi man lang nagsis 60% ang bumoboto.
09:21Eh, hindi pa mainit doon, Dr. Mangahas, diba?
09:24Eh, dito, napaka-init, tinitiis talaga po.
09:26At, may mga mail mo, mga sinyo, diba, mga sinyo?
09:30Upaakit na po.
09:31Totosin, napaka-convenient ng eleksyon sa kanila.
09:35Magpapatuloy po ang ating pagbubantay sa Bilangan.
09:38Magbabalik ang election 2025.
09:40Magpapatuloy po ang ating pagbubantay sa Bilangan.
09:41Magpapatuloy po ang ating pagbubantay sa Bilangan.