"Last-minute changes" - Interview kina Dr. Mangahas at Prof. Rye | Eleksyon 2025 - video Dailymotion

GMA Integrated News

"Now we know how much things can change last minute."   Interview kina Dr. Mahar Mangahas, Chair Emeritus, SWS at Prof. Ranjit Rye, U.P. Diliman Dept. of Political Science/Fellow, OCTA Research as of 8:26 a.m.   Panoorin ang 32-hour special coverage ng GMA Integrated News para sa #Eleksyon2025!   WATCH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyC7UAqmq4c   Welcome to the official YouTube channel of GMA Integrated News, the News Authority of the Filipino. Updated daily with the latest top news and breaking news.   Subscribe to the GMA Integrated News channel! https://www.youtube.com/@gmanews   Visit our website - https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/   Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/gmanews  TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@gmanews  Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/gmanews/  Twitter/X - https://x.com/gmanews

Transcript

00:00Dr. Mahan Mangahas, Chair Emeritus at Social Weather Stations o SWS

00:04at Prof. Ranjit Rai.

00:07Gusto ko lang itanong sa inyo yung performance po ni Bam Aquino.

00:12Doon sa mga survey, hindi siya nasa top 5, no?

00:17Tapos ito na yung election ng number 2 pa.

00:21So talaga hubang unpredictable talaga itong ating mga botante

00:25sa tingin nyo sa SWS,

00:27Dr. Mangahas?

00:31Ako, ang attitude ko, we just learn as we go along.

00:34So now we know how much things can change in the last minute.

00:40Ganun lang.

00:41I'm an economist. I'm not a political scientist.

00:45But the importance of politics is that it validates surveys

00:49and therefore you can use surveys for other topics like economics

00:54because it's with the politics that you can have a good way of seeing

00:59that the sample approximates the population.

01:03Actually, you mentioned that you do the surveys not just to see which candidates are leading.

01:07Isa sa mga sinurvee nyo, di ba Dr. Mangahas,

01:10kung ano yung mga isyong malapit sa mga Pilipino leading up to the elections.

01:14So, and yung mga top answer, food security, tama po ba? Agriculture?

01:19Well, those are other things.

01:21But ako, we are, we are, okay, what are we for?

01:24We are for quality of life and well-being of the Pilipinos.

01:28We have done poverty and hunger more than a hundred times.

01:34And we don't stop and it's going to continue.

01:38You see?

01:39And we don't need sponsors for that anymore.

01:41I mean, we are able already to survive.

01:44So, the value of the politics is the continuing validation

01:48that what we're doing is valid for the other things.

01:52For the economics in particular, for the well-being of the people.

01:57Pero yung naging mga resulta na yung sinabi nga ng mga Pilipino,

02:01na yung mga, gaya ng sinabi ni Igan,

02:03yung mga problemong malapit sa Sigmura,

02:04yun yung top concern sila.

02:06Do you see na parang tugma yun doon sa naging resulta

02:09ng ating partial unofficial tally?

02:12Well, ang inflation ay napaka-importante.

02:15Always, always been, okay?

02:17So, yung mga gut issues.

02:19So, talagang kung sino makakapangako, you know,

02:23na hindi tataas ang mga presyong masyado,

02:27malamang yun.

02:29But of course, they all do that.

02:30Okay.

02:31Anyway.

02:32Professor, yun lang, dugtong ko lang,

02:34dun sa BAM Aquino result.

02:37Kasi pag tinignan mo yung mga kandidato,

02:40parang mix eh.

02:40Akala natin it's an emotional election

02:42between Duterte and the Marcos, di ba?

02:45Kasi parang iba tong BAM eh.

02:46Parang siya yun sa pink na mga sector eh.

02:51So, anong nakita niyong factor?

02:53Ba't biglang, parang taas siya?

02:56Sa aming pag-aaral,

02:58BAM got the votes

02:59where he was registering votes

03:02in our survey.

03:04So, that would be

03:05Balans Luzon

03:06and the National Capital Region.

03:08Okay.

03:08When you look at the...

03:10Well, I saw this from another TV station.

03:12Kasi ang problem namin ngayon,

03:13hindi pa natin nakuha yung data eh.

03:15Apo, apo.

03:15Once we get the data,

03:16social scientists, we can analyze.

03:17But what the little data we have

03:19ay ang laki ho

03:21ng pinanalo niya sa Balans Luzon

03:22at saka sa National Capital Region.

03:24Sa Lucena Lingayen,

03:26just think about this ah.

03:27Nasa number 13 siya sa survey namin.

03:30Pero sa Balans Luzon,

03:31in the final count,

03:32at least 80%,

03:32not final,

03:33but in the latest count,

03:36he's number one in Balans Luzon.

03:37Number one.

03:38Okay?

03:39He was never that in the survey.

03:41But he was, you know,

03:41number 12 sa amin,

03:43so he was there.

03:44In National Capital Region,

03:45number one.

03:46Bongo is number two.

03:47Okay.

03:48So where he was getting,

03:50we was getting survey numbers

03:52in our survey,

03:53he optimized, maximized.

03:55And this is probably,

03:56ano to eh,

03:57produkto to ng kilusan.

03:59Si Pamakino,

04:00hindi lang kandidato,

04:00mukhang may kilusan.

04:01At buhay pa yung kilusan na yun.

04:04And last minute,

04:06nag-organize siya.

04:07So kailangan natin ng konti pang datos

04:09para masabi.

04:10Kasi yun ay interpretation ko lang.

04:12Pero ako,

04:13I'm sure when we look at the data,

04:15even the age groupings,

04:17I mean,

04:18he was trending among millennials,

04:20Gen Zs.

04:21That was what we were seeing in our survey.

04:23But he was number 12 in our survey.

04:25Three weeks before the elections,

04:28he peaked,

04:28alam yun,

04:29and that movement came,

04:31gave the votes,

04:32and not just for him,

04:33for Kiko.

04:34So you have to look at this survey

04:35from a political science perspective.

04:38There are different images.

04:39One is the opposition really won here.

04:41Opposition Duterte,

04:42Opposition Pink.

04:45And that movement,

04:46the Pink movement,

04:47is alive.

04:47Obviously,

04:48they're silent,

04:49but they've organized very well.

04:51In Central Visayas,

04:54which is a stronghold of the Dutertes,

04:56Pamakino was in the top five.

04:58He still got votes in Mindanao.

05:00Of course,

05:00he was in the lower rung.

05:01But by and large,

05:03he ran a very good campaign,

05:05and that campaign resonated

05:06with a broad base of supporters.

05:08Actually,

05:09sa Ilocos Norte,

05:10kanina hindi natin na-emphasize

05:12na si Pamakino ay mataas din.

05:16Ilocos Norte to,

05:17hindi naman number two,

05:18pero mataas.

05:19Nakapasok.

05:19Mataas dun sa listahan

05:22na hindi mo aasahan

05:23bilang baluarte ito ng makamakos.

05:25Pero dun sa Vote Rich,

05:26Calabarzo,

05:27siyang nag-number one.

05:30Talo pa niya sila

05:31Senator Bong Revilla,

05:34who was supposed to do very well

05:36in those areas.

05:37So that's just what we got

05:38from the initial results,

05:4080 percent,

05:41that were 70 percent at the time

05:43was presented to us

05:44last night by Comolec.

05:45Of course,

05:46nag-tumigil na yan.

05:47Once we get the full data,

05:48siguro we can get a better analysis of things.

05:50Actually,

05:50even former Senator Kiko Pangilinan,

05:52nababanggit niya yun,

05:54na dun sa huling araw

05:57ng kampanya,

05:57sinabi niya,

05:58kumpiyansa sila,

05:59may kumpiyansa sila,

06:00very hopeful,

06:01very optimistic,

06:02kasi nakuha niya yung endorsement

06:03on that day of places like Cebu,

06:06nakabilang dun sa mga vote-rich areas.

06:09And we saw how it really did

06:11help his standing

06:13in this particular case.

06:14But,

06:15Professor Rai,

06:16moving forward,

06:18kasi nga,

06:19parang,

06:19dahil nagulat yung mga tao

06:21dun sa naging resulta

06:22ng survey

06:23compared to yung actual

06:24partial unofficial results.

06:26Si Dr. Mangahas,

06:27nabanggit niya,

06:27baka dapat mga idagdag na tanong

06:29sa mga survey.

06:30Kayo po,

06:30ano bang tinitignan yung

06:32possible changes

06:34to the way surveys are conducted?

06:35Not to say na

06:36kailangan baguhin

06:37or kailangan may baguhin.

06:39Tama si Professor Mangahas,

06:40Dr. Mangahas,

06:41na kailangan talagang pag-isipan.

06:43Okay,

06:43there are certain outcomes

06:45of the survey

06:45over the last few cycles

06:47na hindi talaga

06:49kaya explain ang survey

06:50quantitative lang.

06:52Kailangan may qualitative,

06:53we need to do more FGDs.

06:55Sa Okta,

06:55we need to get the resources

06:57to run surveys

06:58close to the election.

06:59We don't have those resources.

07:01The last survey we had

07:02was only 1,200.

07:04Very, very small sample size

07:06but still very quite accurate

07:07and we're very proud of the team

07:09and what came out.

07:11But,

07:11importante,

07:12gusto kong i-emphasize,

07:13hindi na ito bobotante.

07:14Hindi totoo na bobotante

07:15mga Filipino voters.

07:17Just look at the result.

07:19That's not too small.

07:20I know it's okay.

07:24But really are more rounds.

07:26Yeah, more rounds.

07:27That's what usually are.

07:28If we could afford it,

07:29more rounds.

07:30Kasi I think we could have,

07:31all the survey firms

07:32could have gotten it right

07:33if they had more rounds.

07:34Honestly.

07:35But,

07:36the election outcomes,

07:37we're seeing dynamic.

07:39And I just want to emphasize,

07:40yung mga botante natin,

07:41Lana,

07:42I think,

07:42I don't have the data,

07:44but I think a lot of youth vote

07:45came out.

07:46I was talking to my students.

07:47I have a class at 11.30 mamaya.

07:49They were telling me earlier

07:50that they all voted.

07:51For the first time,

07:52they got so

07:53incensed by the

07:54initial survey results

07:56that they wanted to go out and vote.

07:58Kanina pa natin

07:59nababanggit yung mga

07:59vote treats,

08:00pero yung

08:02religious votes.

08:04Kasi isa rin sa surprisingly

08:06na nagresulta rito

08:08ay si

08:09dating congressman

08:10Marcoleta.

08:12Sa mga survey,

08:13nasa tail end siya eh.

08:14Pero makita nyo

08:15standing niya ngayon,

08:16nasa

08:16top 10 kahit pa pano.

08:18So,

08:19malaking factor pa rin

08:20huw ba ngayon

08:20yung religious votes?

08:21Si Professor Makaas.

08:23From experience,

08:24yung Iglesia ni Cristo,

08:25talagang solid yun.

08:26Okay.

08:28By solid,

08:28I mean 80%.

08:30Okay.

08:30Not 100,

08:31not 80%.

08:32My feeling

08:35always has been doon,

08:36but

08:36kukunti lang sila.

08:38Mga 5% lang

08:39ang mga Iglesia ni Cristo voters.

08:42Di ba?

08:42So,

08:43I haven't seen yet

08:45that that could change

08:46the standing so much.

08:47Let's see.

08:48Anyway,

08:49hindi pwedeng Iglesia lang.

08:52Sana,

08:53yung mga Catholics,

08:54but they don't interfere.

08:56Hindi nage-endorse.

08:57Hindi nage-endorse.

08:58I-de-iterate lang natin

09:00na number one si BAM

09:01sa limang probinsya

09:02ng Region 4A,

09:03which is the vote-richest province

09:06or the most vote-rich province.

09:08And number six

09:09in Cebu province,

09:10which is the most vote-rich

09:12naman na probinsya.

09:14How about Mindanao?

09:15Ano siya?

09:15Sa Mindanao,

09:16wala pa po tayong data.

09:17Pero those are the areas

09:19kung saan talagang

09:20maraming mga butante.

09:21Yeah.

09:21All right.

"Last-minute changes" - Interview kina Dr. Mangahas at Prof. Rye | Eleksyon 2025

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