"I was surprised by the results" - Interview kina Dr. Mangahas at Prof. Rye | Eleksyon 2025 - video Dailymotion

GMA Integrated News

“Surveys do change… I was surprised by the results.”   Interview kina Dr. Mahar Mangahas, Chair Emeritus, SWS at Prof. Ranjit Rye, U.P. Diliman Dept. of Political Science/Fellow, OCTA Research as of 9:07 a.m.   Panoorin ang 32-hour special coverage ng GMA Integrated News para sa #Eleksyon2025!   WATCH: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QyC7UAqmq4c   Welcome to the official YouTube channel of GMA Integrated News, the News Authority of the Filipino. Updated daily with the latest top news and breaking news.   Subscribe to the GMA Integrated News channel! https://www.youtube.com/@gmanews   Visit our website - https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/   Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/gmanews  TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@gmanews  Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/gmanews/  Twitter/X - https://x.com/gmanews

Transcript

00:00We're going to talk to Dr. Ranjit Rai, and of course Dr. Mahara Mangahas.

00:07Andi tulip po silang dalawa.

00:09At pagpapatuloy natin ang talakayan, napangganda kanina, napakinggan namin eh.

00:14Yung talakayan ninyo, kaninang tatlo, napakaganda, napakarami naming natutunan yan.

00:19Ano to, pang-awakening, pang-gising, yung mga inyong tinalakay kanina.

00:25Pero siguro maganda nga, ano, Professor Rai.

00:28Ngayon naman, yung pagpapakita ng mga voters naman ang ating pag-usapan, what does it tell us?

00:35Itong nangyaring, gulat ba? Hindi naman gulat, pero parang nagising tayong lahat sa choices.

00:45May nababanggit si Professor Rai na dark horse eh, pero medyo maraming dark horse na pumasok sa top 12.

00:50In our last report, we did mention sa Okta, it's too dynamic for us to make a final call.

00:57And surveys do change.

00:59And that we were saying as early as April that there will be a significant number of possibilities that could happen.

01:07And that's exactly what happened.

01:09And, you know, personally, I was surprised by the results.

01:14I knew Bam was going to win.

01:16But I didn't know that he was going to win this big.

01:18Oh, yun din.

01:19Pero kasi ho, nasa number 12 naman siya sa amin.

01:21At 12 to 15 in your survey.

01:23Ang mga surveys kasi parang within striking distance lang siya eh, pwede pa sa malaglag.

01:27Amin sa straight 12 siya.

01:28Straight 12.

01:29Straight 12.

01:29So he wasn't in the range.

01:31Not just in the range, but, you know, he was...

01:33So in the range, he was actually much lower.

01:35And then, of course, we were kind of surprised by the result of Senator Pangilinan.

01:42We did say in the media that Congressman Marcoleta, at least in our last survey, had a very good chance.

01:49Because he was the only candidate in our survey that went up 9 percentage points.

01:54Everyone else went down.

01:55But, you know, so...

01:58Pero kung baga, what could have happened?

02:01A change of heart with the voters?

02:03Ano, ano, meron ba silang pinakita in the last two minutes before the election?

02:08Yeah, but the last two minutes, actually, almost a month.

02:10That's a long time, actually, for surveys.

02:13And for OCTA, of course, I'll let Professor Marr discuss because they have a more recent survey.

02:18We ended our survey in April.

02:21So that was it.

02:22So we had three weeks of nothing, really.

02:25But we were looking at the other surveys, and we were seeing the changes.

02:28We're telling candidates who were asking for information, specifically, you know, these people who are now in the top.

02:35But, yeah, the numbers are changing.

02:37And some of the survey leaders during our... were really going down.

02:41So the trend was...

02:43Yeah.

02:43And so, at some level, surveys remain relevant and correct as far as the candidates are concerned.

02:49Now, as far as people's expectations, you know, we're not a crystal ball at the moment yet.

02:54But, you know, as we go forward and as we improve, lana sa OCTA, we will get things, you know, more accurately.

03:03But this was a dynamic election.

03:06Some people were saying wild.

03:08Wild yung election results, no?

03:11And maybe that's kind of... maybe there's some truth to that.

03:15You know, I cannot talaga.

03:16Pero hindi pa ho tapos ang butuhan.

03:17Yes.

03:18At tayo ho ay may partial, unofficial pa.

03:20So, hintay natin matapos.

03:22But sabi ka nga...

03:23We can ask Guru, Mr. Mangahas, no?

03:25Because pag nakikita natin yung survey, tapos i...

03:29Kakahambing natin dito sa naging actual results, no?

03:33Parang ang laki ng gain, no?

03:36Ni na Bam, tsaka si Kiko.

03:38On the contrary, pinakamalaking heartbreak naman yung kay Ben Tulfo.

03:42He dropped by what?

03:43How many points?

03:44From fourth to fifth place, he became 13th place.

03:48What a heartbreak.

03:49So, we learn as we go along.

03:52Kung anong magyayaris dun sa katapusan.

03:56And if we get the majority, okay.

04:01That's already success.

04:03But it's not as successful as we were before.

04:07So, hintayin natin and then let's see.

04:11And then let's survey, let's ask the right questions in our next round.

04:17Because we're in the field, no?

04:20Politics or no politics, we're in the field four times a year.

04:23And we can ask anything we like.

04:25So, we will ask again, you know, what, you know, when did you make your decision?

04:30And we'll see if we can ask why.

04:33Why is the hardest question to ask?

04:35Na-factor in ba yung mga endorsements like the INC and then, you know, other endorsements?

04:41The INC is not a big group.

04:45The INC is, you know, I think it's smaller than the Muslim group.

04:49And we never figured out the Muslim group.

04:52Kapit yung mga endorsements ng Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia kay BAP.

04:56Was that factored in as well?

04:58I mean, you got a lot of endorsements.

05:00The question about the vote is already been met after everything happens.

05:08We won't know about factor X unless we have a question about factor X.

05:14And we can't think of all of those.

05:16We can think of them later.

05:18But before the fact, we don't prepare that.

05:22Especially, we don't because we're not, you know, we don't have a political agenda.

05:28Even the agenda of our sponsor, we have a sponsor.

05:32Our sponsor is Strat-Based Consulting.

05:35Even they, you know, their items are not maybe the items that I would ask.

05:39But they're the ones, you know, who commissioned that.

05:43So, we have to make do with that.

05:45Okay.

05:45Go ahead.

05:48Yes.

05:48Siguro po, ano, Dr. Mangahas, no?

05:51Yes, ma'am.

05:51Sabi ko ni Nakita ko, tama ba ito?

05:5398.64% na tayo?

05:58Saan?

05:58Sa Comelec, yes.

05:59Huh?

06:00Sa Comelec?

06:00Yung report ni Joseph kalina.

06:02Yes, parang I saw the same number.

06:03Gano'n na kalaki?

06:04Tapos na ba?

06:05Gano'n na kalaki?

06:06At 98.62%?

06:07I think the returns that have been submitted, no?

06:09But I don't know.

06:10Submitted returns.

06:11It have been counted.

06:12Yeah.

06:12Pero hindi pa-canvas.

06:13Hindi pa-canvas.

06:14Oh, yes.

06:15Okay.

06:15The actual canvassing is only going to start really today.

06:19Remember, what we're seeing are just the reports coming to media.

06:22But the actual canvassing is done by Comelec with the election returns.

06:26And what they're saying is that the actual physical election returns are only coming in.

06:31But usually, Prof, kailan mo pwede nang sabihin it's in the bag?

06:35When the Comelec declares that it's in the bag, you know, at least based on our laws, no?

06:42But definitely, you know, what you have come out from the transparency servers should mirror what comes out in the election.

06:51At the rate we are going, at the rate, you know, they are canvassing, alam nyo, yan ang iniintay ng lahat, ah?

06:58Yung office yan.

07:00Kusiyo nanalo talaga.

07:02We wait for the official announcement from Comelec.

"I was surprised by the results" - Interview kina Dr. Mangahas at Prof. Rye | Eleksyon 2025

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