Election analyst Antony Green unpacks last of the election results

ABC NEWS (Australia)

Elections analyst Antony Green has the latest on the seat count, starting with the Greens, who have secured their only seat in the house of representatives.

Transcript

00:00Elizabeth Watson-Brown, she's in second place just ahead of Labor.

00:07The question was who would come second and elect the other on preferences.

00:10There's been what's called a three-candidate preferred count conducted by the Electoral

00:14Commission and it's clear that Labor's not making up any ground on Elizabeth Watson-Brown.

00:19So she will stay in second place and win on Labor preferences.

00:24Let's move to the seat of Ku Yong.

00:26We know that there was a fierce battle there, but that has now been called?

00:29Yeah, it looks like Monique Ryan is far enough ahead that Amelia Hamer, the Liberal candidate,

00:35needs about 58% of the outstanding votes and there just aren't enough of them to turn it

00:40around.

00:41And the trend, most of them are now absent in pre-poll declarations and they've not been

00:44breaking in any way strong enough for the Liberal Party to turn that result around.

00:48Okay.

00:49In Sydney, one that you and I have spoken about often has been Bradfield.

00:53That's been neck and neck with results coming in from the Post switching the leads, but

00:58now you're confident to call it?

00:59Yeah, there just aren't enough outstanding votes.

01:01We know how many pre-poll declarations and how many absents are to come.

01:04There just aren't enough of them to turn around.

01:06The lead's only, oh, I think it was 230 votes.

01:09It wasn't a big lead, but there aren't enough votes to turn it around at this stage.

01:13And this is Giselle Capturian there who looks to be taking the Liberal candidate?

01:16Yes.

01:17She will take the seat from Nicolette Buller, who's her second attempt to win the seat.

01:22She's narrowed the margin further, but hasn't been able to win the seat.

01:26Well, she narrowed it quite a bit, didn't she, when she was up against Paul Fletcher last

01:29time around.

01:30He is, of course, resigning there.

01:31But the Independent there made quite a lot of inroads last time around.

01:35Yeah, I mean, Bradfield is, it's the upper north shore of Sydney.

01:39It has traditionally been the bluest of bluest electorates.

01:42And like the other seats all across the north shore, there's been a surge of support for

01:46the independents and the Liberal voters haemorrhage.

01:49And Bradfield has stayed with the Liberal Party at this election, but it's still a very, very

01:53narrow margin.

01:54And Giselle Capturian will have to work hard to hold onto that seat if there's another independent

01:59challenge.

02:00Now, Labor has also increased their account protected to win, projected rather to win the ACT electorate.

02:05Of Bain?

02:06Oh, this is the Southern ACT electorate.

02:09This has traditionally been a seat which Labor has struggled in in the past against the Liberal

02:13Party at times when interest rates have been high.

02:16But this election, it was Jessie Price, I think, I hope that's the candidate's name, who's running,

02:23who ran Labor a very close race.

02:25She was ahead on election night, but the Pope, the counting of absence and pre-poll declarations

02:30has turned the result around and there aren't enough votes left now to allow her to win

02:35the seats.

02:36So, David Smith retains the seat for Labor.

02:37Yes, Jessie Price was correct.

02:39Just checked my notes there.

02:40So, how many seats are now in question and what is the Parliament looking like for someone

02:44who's just listening to these seats?

02:45Just be called, if you can give us a bit of a recap.

02:47Labor's won 93 seats now.

02:49That's quite a remarkable landslide.

02:51The Coalition is on 41 seats.

02:54There's 11 or 12.

02:56There's one green and 11 others on the crossbench.

02:59I think that's the current numbers.

03:00There's four seats, which I've left in doubt at this stage, in both Colwell and Monash,

03:05two Victorian seats.

03:06Labor's probably favoured in Colwell.

03:09It's very difficult to work out what order the candidates are going to get excluded.

03:13So, it'll be a week and a half before we know Colwell.

03:16Monash remains in doubt, but I think probably is leaning to the Liberal Party.

03:20Flinders and Independent will finish second in Flinders, but I think Zoe Mackenzie will

03:24probably hold it.

03:25We just need more counting.

03:26And the last seat that's remaining in doubt for the moment is escaping my memory.

03:32There's a lot of seats to remember.

03:34But at least, I mean, it's a great analysis and catch up of where we're at.

03:39And the overwhelming, I guess, idea is that, you know, that Labor landslide was not, you've

03:44just remembered.

03:45Longman, which is in the northern edge of Greater Brisbane.

03:49It remains in doubt, simply Terry Young is a Labor member.

03:52It remains in doubt because they're mainly counting declaration votes.

03:55It's not declaration votes.

03:56It's absence.

03:57They come from other districts.

03:58They tend to be counted in batches.

04:00So, one batch may favour the Labor Party.

04:02And at this stage, that one's too close to call.

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