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  • 5/13/2025
Elections analyst Antony Green has the latest on the seat count, starting with the Greens, who have secured their only seat in the house of representatives.

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00:00Elizabeth Watson-Brown, she's in second place just ahead of Labor.
00:07The question was who would come second and elect the other on preferences.
00:10There's been what's called a three-candidate preferred count conducted by the Electoral
00:14Commission and it's clear that Labor's not making up any ground on Elizabeth Watson-Brown.
00:19So she will stay in second place and win on Labor preferences.
00:24Let's move to the seat of Ku Yong.
00:26We know that there was a fierce battle there, but that has now been called?
00:29Yeah, it looks like Monique Ryan is far enough ahead that Amelia Hamer, the Liberal candidate,
00:35needs about 58% of the outstanding votes and there just aren't enough of them to turn it
00:40around.
00:41And the trend, most of them are now absent in pre-poll declarations and they've not been
00:44breaking in any way strong enough for the Liberal Party to turn that result around.
00:48Okay.
00:49In Sydney, one that you and I have spoken about often has been Bradfield.
00:53That's been neck and neck with results coming in from the Post switching the leads, but
00:58now you're confident to call it?
00:59Yeah, there just aren't enough outstanding votes.
01:01We know how many pre-poll declarations and how many absents are to come.
01:04There just aren't enough of them to turn around.
01:06The lead's only, oh, I think it was 230 votes.
01:09It wasn't a big lead, but there aren't enough votes to turn it around at this stage.
01:13And this is Giselle Capturian there who looks to be taking the Liberal candidate?
01:16Yes.
01:17She will take the seat from Nicolette Buller, who's her second attempt to win the seat.
01:22She's narrowed the margin further, but hasn't been able to win the seat.
01:26Well, she narrowed it quite a bit, didn't she, when she was up against Paul Fletcher last
01:29time around.
01:30He is, of course, resigning there.
01:31But the Independent there made quite a lot of inroads last time around.
01:35Yeah, I mean, Bradfield is, it's the upper north shore of Sydney.
01:39It has traditionally been the bluest of bluest electorates.
01:42And like the other seats all across the north shore, there's been a surge of support for
01:46the independents and the Liberal voters haemorrhage.
01:49And Bradfield has stayed with the Liberal Party at this election, but it's still a very, very
01:53narrow margin.
01:54And Giselle Capturian will have to work hard to hold onto that seat if there's another independent
01:59challenge.
02:00Now, Labor has also increased their account protected to win, projected rather to win the ACT electorate.
02:05Of Bain?
02:06Oh, this is the Southern ACT electorate.
02:09This has traditionally been a seat which Labor has struggled in in the past against the Liberal
02:13Party at times when interest rates have been high.
02:16But this election, it was Jessie Price, I think, I hope that's the candidate's name, who's running,
02:23who ran Labor a very close race.
02:25She was ahead on election night, but the Pope, the counting of absence and pre-poll declarations
02:30has turned the result around and there aren't enough votes left now to allow her to win
02:35the seats.
02:36So, David Smith retains the seat for Labor.
02:37Yes, Jessie Price was correct.
02:39Just checked my notes there.
02:40So, how many seats are now in question and what is the Parliament looking like for someone
02:44who's just listening to these seats?
02:45Just be called, if you can give us a bit of a recap.
02:47Labor's won 93 seats now.
02:49That's quite a remarkable landslide.
02:51The Coalition is on 41 seats.
02:54There's 11 or 12.
02:56There's one green and 11 others on the crossbench.
02:59I think that's the current numbers.
03:00There's four seats, which I've left in doubt at this stage, in both Colwell and Monash,
03:05two Victorian seats.
03:06Labor's probably favoured in Colwell.
03:09It's very difficult to work out what order the candidates are going to get excluded.
03:13So, it'll be a week and a half before we know Colwell.
03:16Monash remains in doubt, but I think probably is leaning to the Liberal Party.
03:20Flinders and Independent will finish second in Flinders, but I think Zoe Mackenzie will
03:24probably hold it.
03:25We just need more counting.
03:26And the last seat that's remaining in doubt for the moment is escaping my memory.
03:32There's a lot of seats to remember.
03:34But at least, I mean, it's a great analysis and catch up of where we're at.
03:39And the overwhelming, I guess, idea is that, you know, that Labor landslide was not, you've
03:44just remembered.
03:45Longman, which is in the northern edge of Greater Brisbane.
03:49It remains in doubt, simply Terry Young is a Labor member.
03:52It remains in doubt because they're mainly counting declaration votes.
03:55It's not declaration votes.
03:56It's absence.
03:57They come from other districts.
03:58They tend to be counted in batches.
04:00So, one batch may favour the Labor Party.
04:02And at this stage, that one's too close to call.

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