- 5/12/2025
Cmde C Uday Bhaskar (Retd.) speaks with Tarun Basu on the latest bout of India-Pakistan conflict and the dramatic ceasefire: What now? | SAM Conversation
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00:00I am Tarun Basu, and I am speaking on South Asia Monitor with my colleague, Komodoro Uday Bhaskar,
00:16a reputed security and strategic analyst. And we are going to try and give an insight into the
00:22recent volatile events in South Asia, which perhaps for the first time since 1999, really
00:31brought the war home to the people, both in India and in Pakistan. The latest events happened
00:40almost suddenly and without notice, as these events sometimes often happen. On the 22nd
00:47of April, when about 24, 24 to be exact, 24 tourists who had been enjoying themselves
00:58in a picturesque meadow in Pahlgao, in Jammu and Kashmir, were in a unprovoked and a barbaric
01:07manner, gunned down by Islamist terrorists, after they were identified on the basis of
01:14religion. All, one were Indians and one was a Nepali. The incident, the attack, saw the
01:22imprint of, India saw the imprint of Pakistan-based attackers, which of course Islamabad, as is
01:29its own, denied. Then began a series of diplomatic tit-for-tats. India downgraded diplomatic ties,
01:37which were anyway without their ambassadors in both countries, and suspended the crucial,
01:43in this water treaty, which had been there since 1960. India also cancelled visas for Pakistanis,
01:54and all Pakistanis were asked to go back to their countries, which created a bit of a humanitarian
02:00issue. Overflights were cancelled, and then began a series of small arms fire, exchange of small arms
02:07fire, which was started by Pakistan. The UN asked both countries to exercise restraint, but that never
02:13happened. According to India, Pakistan violated ceasefire for the first time by the fifth consecutive
02:18night on April 30, before the US tried to step in for the first time, calling for an effort to
02:24disfuse the crisis. India, on 3rd May, suspended all mails from Pakistan to air and surface troops and
02:31buying direct and indirect imports of goods from Pakistan, and also docking of Pakistan flagships.
02:37The real action began on May 7, when a predawn excise India carried out Operation Sindur, striking nine
02:44sites linked to terror infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and for the first time,
02:49outside Kashmir, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in Punjab. Soon after, Pakistan started shelling across the
02:55Yellow Sea, killing at least 20 people, and then began a dangerous escalation of the war,
03:02with a war-like situation, and nobody called it a war-like situation, and dangerous escalation of the
03:07war-like situation, which seemed to be spiraling out of control, before a dramatic
03:13ceasefire announcement by US President Donald Trump, who till then was trying, you know, seeking to
03:23keep his hands off the whole issue, and even called it a shame. He announced on his social media, Truth
03:29Social, that the two sides agreed to a ceasefire. There was an announcement by Pakistan after that,
03:36and then India followed suit. There was some violence. The ceasefire seemed to be very fragile in the
03:42beginning. There were lots of, India said, lots of violations. There were exchange of fire across
03:48the LOC for several hours. Before, I think, by 11pm, the guns fell silent, and the ceasefire seems to hold
03:56up to now. First question, Uday, naturally, is, will the ceasefire hold? This is something people in India
04:04and Pakistan, and not just all over South Asia, but the world must be asking.
04:07My sense, Tarun, is that as of now, the ceasefire will hold, but in an uneasy manner. Because if you
04:20look at the sequence of events, and you had just pointed out, there were some unusual developments,
04:28meaning that till it happened, it seemed as if this spiral of violence was going to escalate.
04:36Because the ceasefire was announced on Saturday, and earlier that morning, in India, there was a lot of anger
04:47that three cities had been targeted. There was Jammu, there was Udhampur, there was Srinagar,
04:54and particularly because a temple complex in Jammu had been targeted. You could see the kind of social
05:05anger and anguish saying that Pakistan has crossed certain lines.
05:11So given that backdrop, I would say that yes, the ceasefire will hold, but in an uneasy manner.
05:18And in the event there is any kind of provocation, either deliberately or some kind of an accidental
05:27trigger, because this LOC has now become very, very live in terms of the deployment of troops
05:35and the ammunition and all the other assets that have been brought together. And we still do not know the
05:41entire track record. I'm trying to think of how best to describe this in terms of the battle damage,
05:51meaning that the intensity of the violence, the kind of platforms that were used, including aircraft.
05:56There have been reports that both sides had shut down the aircraft and drones on the other side.
06:03But obviously neither side will acknowledge or confirm in the early days. So we need to get a sense of that.
06:11So fingers crossed, I hope this will hold and that there would be some movement towards
06:18the beginning of a dialogue, because unless India and Pakistan sit down, perhaps even go back to the
06:24framework of 1972 and Shimla. In the spirit of Shimla and say that both sides will sit down.
06:31I think we will still have this problem on our hands.
06:36Talking about dialogue, let's go back a little bit to yesterday, the curious way the ceasefire was
06:42announced. First, it was not India and Pakistan, which was announced by President Donald Trump on his
06:50social media, followed by Pakistan. And then there was the announcement by the Foreign Secretary in the
06:57evening briefing. And the U.S. Secretary of State, Mark Rubio, who is also the national security advisor,
07:05he had been speaking apparently a whole night to the leaders of both sides, including the Pakistan
07:11military chief. And he has talked about that the U.S. is offering its good offices for some kind of
07:22resumption of dialogue, or I should not say resumption, for a face-to-face meeting between
07:29India and Pakistan at a neutral place. Now, isn't this jumping the gun a little bit? I mean,
07:36India has said that nothing like that has been agreed upon, and they'll wait and see. And Pakistan
07:42has thanked the U.S. for their mediation, as it has thanked Saudi Arabia and other countries,
07:48while India has said that, insisted, true to the spirit of the Shamla Agreement, which just
07:53talks about keeping the things to the bilateral level, that the peacefire thing happened on a purely
08:01bilateral basis after the call by the Pakistan DGMO in the evening. So what exactly was the, you know,
08:11the chain of events? No, as you have pointed out, there are two kinds of strands that are in the
08:19public domain. And in a way, they are part of a strategy that Pakistan has followed, going back to
08:26October 1947, when the contestation for Kashmir begins. And which is, Pakistan constantly tries to
08:35quote-unquote, internationalize the Kashmir issue. And India has, after 1972 and the Shimla Agreement,
08:45been very firm that this has to be addressed in the bilateral framework. So after the Pehalgaam
08:53terror attack, I think one must acknowledge or accept that Pakistan has been reasonably successful
09:01in drawing international attention again to the Kashmir issue, and by also waving the nuclear card.
09:08So the very fact that the US Vice President initially made remarks that the US was not
09:14interested, this is not their fight, and India and Pakistan would have to sort it out between
09:18themselves. 24 hours later, you saw there was a complete U-turn, and the US Secretary of State,
09:26who, as you rightly pointed out, is also the NSA, he's wearing two hats, had picked up the phone,
09:33and from what the US press statements and the readout, as they call it, of telephone conversations
09:39with leaders are concerned, State Department has a readout, they said that there were extended midnight
09:45calls with both leaders in both countries. So therefore, this is in the public domain from the US side,
09:51so clearly the US has got involved. But India does not want this kind of mediation. This is a word India doesn't
10:00accept. And therefore, the Foreign Secretary has repeatedly said that it is the Pakistani DGMO who called,
10:07and India agreed to the cessation of hostilities and the ceasefire. But no, there is no commitment or talk about
10:14a dialogue in a neutral venue. But that would, that again would be unusual, a departure from Shimla.
10:21So at the moment, I think both sides are in a way trying to advance their own narrative on this,
10:28which is why I was saying that not only is the ceasefire a bit uneasy, fragile, but what happens
10:34later in terms of the dialogue also leaves a lot of question marks. And this is, again, you can link it
10:41back to the very unusual sequence of events that the very dramatic announcement comes from a social
10:48media post by the US president. I gather off the record that even in the United States, they were
10:54taken aback. Normally, the State Department would have put out something in a very anodyne manner,
11:00or asked India and Pakistan to put out something simultaneously. There would be some kind of a
11:05formal way of doing it. But here you have the US president putting out a personal tweet,
11:10and then everyone scrambles after that. So I think we'll have to take it a day at a time.
11:17Talking about the last few days and the near war situation.
11:24Both are claiming victory in many ways. India has said it has decimated terrorist infrastructure,
11:31not just in POK, but also in Punjab, and hit targets that they said were headquarters of the
11:39L.E.T. and the Jaisa Muhammad, and killed at least the latest report, at least 130 militants and terrorists.
11:47And Pakistan has denied a lot of this. And in fact, India has been saying from the beginning that it has
11:53been trying to keep the war limited to assault on terror. But Pakistan escalated the situation a day
12:03later and hit, apparently hit and targeted cities here, more than a dozen cities, if not more, and
12:09even hit military facilities, which saw retaliation by India. And it hit their military infrastructure in
12:17Lahore around India and other places, and reports where the air defense systems has been destroyed,
12:22etc. Now, both sides naturally are claiming victory, which is possibly good in a way. But how do you see
12:30the so-called war situation or the near war? How did it pan out from the military point of view?
12:40You know, I think first of all, we should acknowledge that this is a conflict, which was not formally
12:47declared as a war. But it led to the loss of lives. It began with the murder, the massacre of the tourists,
12:5726 of them were killed on April 22. And now media reports that are reasonably credible from both
13:06sides. The account tally seems to be over 60 people have been killed. This is what I have seen. Maybe it
13:12will be refined, and we've had better data about the number of people who've been killed and injured.
13:18But this is high. It's not an insignificant number. Over a period of less than a week,
13:23to have 60 people dying would suggest that this is a conflict that has acquired a certain
13:30level of intensity and loss of life. That is the first. We still do not have a total assessment
13:36about the destruction that has been caused to infrastructure. It will come through very soon,
13:42I'm sure. Houses have been destroyed, other infrastructure. We had a government official
13:46in the state government in Jammu Kashmir, who lost his life. There will be others, I'm sure,
13:52on the other side of the border also. When the bodies come home, we'll have a better idea.
13:58And then we'll also have to look at the platforms that may have been degraded or destroyed. For instance,
14:02aircraft, drones, and so on and so forth. So therefore, this particular level of military
14:11contestation on military hostilities between the two countries points to the equivalent of
14:20a new normal, meaning that it's going to be ugly. But the informal kind of understanding now,
14:28India has not declared it in a formal sense, but they have said that the next time there is an act of terror
14:35from across the border. India would consider that to be an act of war and take whatever steps it
14:42deems appropriate. And it has demonstrated that it can acquire and identify targets like in Punjab,
14:49like you pointed out, Mureed K and Bahawalpur. Now, since South Asia Monitor, you know, as a platform
14:55does encourage young citizens of South Asia to be aware of their own region. I think if you allow me,
15:04I'd like to draw attention to this fact that when we talk about places like Mureed K and Bahawalpur,
15:10they have been nurseries of the terror carders. And this has been documented exhaustively,
15:18not just by Indian analysts and academics, but also by Pakistani academics and by the foreign
15:26community that looks at the region. And I want to also mention the tragic case of a well-known
15:32journalist of the Wall Street Journal, Daniel Pearl. He was killed in February of 2002.
15:39And this came soon after 9-11. And in a way, it sensitized and made the US media in particular,
15:48because Daniel Pearl was a very well-regarded and much loved journalist of the United States.
15:54He was operating out of Bombay. He'd just been posted there. And some of us had met him also.
16:01And after that, I think the way in which that case was pursued by his own parents and his colleagues
16:09has made the West aware of the scourge of terrorism. India had identified those targets.
16:15So for me, as an analyst who has been studying this case, this subject for many decades, almost as a
16:21student, I think there is a new normal now where India will see this as an act of war. It will take
16:27whatever action it deems appropriate, like Operation Sindhu. And the Pakistani army will not sever its ties
16:35with the terror groups. And we saw that after India's strike, the people who were killed, they were
16:41acknowledged as terrorists globally by the UN. But their bodies were draped in the Pakistani flag.
16:50And they were escorted by the Pakistani military, which is why one of the things I would like to
16:56suggest also that we could perhaps consider is that maybe calling them non-state actors is no longer
17:04valid. They are state proxies. And the Pakistani military in Rawalpindi, the ISI, etc. will not sever
17:13their links with these groups. India has said it will not let any act of terror go unpunished.
17:20So this is the new normal. And Pakistan has demonstrated that they can also strike Indian cities,
17:25as far as we rightly pointed out. Simultaneously, they were able to launch their own
17:32platforms from Gujarat to Srinagar over one night. So they also have a certain capability.
17:39So we have to be prepared for this. And one hopes that civilians are not deliberately targeted,
17:45which has not happened in South Asia in previous wars.
17:49You know, you talked about India changing the terms of engagement and saying that in future,
17:55any terror attack would be called an act of war by India, seen as an act of war. India has been with
18:01Pakistan continuing its policy of using terror, prospering terror as part of its foreign policy,
18:08as part of its strategic policy against India, and refusing to change its stance.
18:14Ever since 1999 Kargil war, India has been changing the terms of engagement.
18:18In Kargil war, if you remember, Mr. Bashpai then strictly told the armed forces not to cross the
18:26LOC. In 2016, when the Uri attack happened, India then crossed the LOC, although the soldiers didn't
18:35cross, but there was a strike, surgical strike. In 2019, but the surgical strike was restricted to
18:42Jammu and Kashmir, POK, not Jammu and Kashmir, the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. In 2019, after Pulwama happened,
18:50the strike was not just in POK, but in Khyber Bakhtunwar. Now this time, it has been widened to even Punjab.
19:02So, India is giving the message that we are not hesitating, we'll strike anywhere where we think
19:08are the threats from their lives, whether it is POK, which is, I mean, according to Pakistan,
19:14a distributed territory, but not according to India, and anywhere else. So, the terms of engagement
19:22between India and Pakistan has dramatically changed. How do you see that, you know, thing pan out again
19:30in the future, in terms of engagement changing? How do you see the equation between India and Pakistan
19:37Anjit? You know, you're absolutely right in pointing out the sequence of how India responded
19:43from Kargil in 1999 to Cops Sindhur in 2025. At that time in Kargil, you'll recall that it was said
19:52that the Indian military was asked to operate with one hand tied behind its back. This is when Mr.
19:59Vajpayee was Prime Minister. Now, you can see that Prime Minister Modi has gone on record to say that the
20:06armed forces have been given freedom to choose whatever kind of response they deem appropriate.
20:14And this has been said in public. So, I also see this as a kind of signal as far as the India-Pakistan
20:23relationship is now concerned. And you're absolutely right in pointing out that the Indian military now
20:28has demonstrated its credibility in being able to plan and execute the equivalent of a joint operation,
20:38which involves all three armed forces. My own sense is that they would have also used other assets
20:45like cyber and space. It may not be in the public domain, but clearly all these have been integrated.
20:51And Op Sindhur was concluded in a visibly successful manner from whatever reports we have till now.
21:01If more data or more information comes up, then of course, we may have to revise our assessment.
21:07But this is going to be the new normal where Pakistan will try and escalate and again draw the attention of
21:14the international communities to say that this is the most dangerous point. We are the smaller country.
21:19We are a victim. And if we are pushed to the wall, we'll have no option but to look at our nuclear capability.
21:27The moment that particular word is used, then you can see and legitimately the international community,
21:33which really doesn't understand very much of what is happening here in terms of the complexity.
21:38You say that this problem goes back to October 1947. Most people will say that our grandparents
21:43are not born at that time or our parents are not born. So, you know, memories about this part of the
21:48world are very short and we are broad brush. And again, this is something that we should ponder over
21:54in a very objective and candid manner, which is that in as much as India projects itself as having been
22:01the victim of jihadi terrorism since the early nineties, when Mr. Narasimara was the prime minister
22:07and that Pakistan is the state sponsor. It's not seen in such a black and white manner by the rest of the
22:14international community. Even now, despite the fact that India and the United States are now in a
22:21partnership, a robust partnership, there are well-wishers for Pakistan and what it did for the United States.
22:28Going back to Mao Tse-tung and Nixon and all those openings that Pakistan provided,
22:35the role it played in the Cold War, the role it played during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan
22:41and the fact that Pakistan was the conduit for Osama bin Laden when he was on the American side
22:46fighting against the Soviets. So, I mean, there is an empathy, there is a history, which is why many
22:53Indians are upset, angry that say BBC, for instance, even this morning, I heard this myself, the early
23:00morning bulletins used the word gunmen when it came to describing the April 22 Pahalgam terror massacre.
23:09For whatever editorial reason, it doesn't work to use the word terrorist for whatever reason.
23:14Yeah, absolutely. So, I think India has to be aware of the fact that when we look at what is going to
23:21happen from now on, China is squarely supporting Pakistan. We have to factor that in. Turkey is providing military
23:28assistance. So, all I am trying to suggest is that this is going to be a complex challenge for India.
23:36How do you prevail upon the Pakistani army to desist from supporting terror groups? On current evidence,
23:44it appears that General Munir is still invested in keeping these groups because for him there are
23:49multiple options. He also has to consider using them in Afghanistan. By the way, that's another
23:56interesting observation that after Pahalgam, when the massacre took place, even the Taliban in Kabul
24:02had condemned it, that particular attack. To me, that was, I thought, a significant kind of development.
24:10But Pakistan is not alone in as much as India likes to think that the whole world sees it as a sponsor of
24:17terrorism of the jihadi variant. I think it's a very gray. It's not black and white. And we in India,
24:23I think, have to see this as one of the lessons of the outcome of Op Sindur. How do we ensure
24:31conventional deterrence to prevent another Pahalgam? Because Pulwama followed by Balakot did not prevent
24:40Pahalgam in 2025. We have to do an internal review starting from the lapses that led to the Pahalgam
24:47massacre. After all, there were intelligence lapses. We've had some material inadequacies. Maybe our
24:54surveillance was not up to speed despite all the technology. So the homework has to be done here.
24:59Yeah, yeah. You know, I'm glad you, you know, earlier wars, that China was not that invested in
25:07those wars. We talk of Western support, Gulf support, Turkish support. For the first time,
25:12China was at least the factor in the war. And China's weapons systems and platforms were widely used.
25:20Their planes were used. In fact, since you're a military analyst, many military experts talked about
25:27this was actually a war between European systems, largely French, which the Indians used, French,
25:35Israeli, Russian, and indigenous, of course, and versus Chinese systems and Turkish systems.
25:43So how did you see in terms of the weapons, the missiles, the aircraft that were used? There were
25:48reports that Rafales were shot down by J-10C planes and PL-15 missiles and other, etc.
25:58So how did you see this, you know, the rivalry between the two systems?
26:04I think, first of all, purely from a military point of view, I would say that this particular
26:10conflict between India and Pakistan saw a new level of the delivery of ordinance, to use the jargon,
26:19meaning both sides were using trans-border capabilities, which is to say they were staying
26:24within their own borders or in their own countries, not crossing the line of control.
26:31But using platforms that could deliver ordinance, you know, it's a bit like saying that I have an
26:36aircraft that can stay a hundred miles away from the border and fire a missile that has a range of 200
26:42kilometers. So I can pick up targets in a radius of 80 kilometers, you know, to put it very simplistically.
26:49Drones were used in a big way. We do not have the exact numbers, but hopefully the battle damage
26:55estimates will all be available soon. If not here, there's enough satellite kind of coverage that
27:00will provide this. And we would have a better sense about how many drones and in which manner.
27:05There have been some reports that suggested that they were used in the hundreds by Pakistan, but
27:10I would hold my breath and wait for the numbers to come. But definitely, many of them of Turkish
27:16origin have been reported. I've seen stray reports about Chinese equipment, but as I said, let us wait for
27:23the accurate data to come. But they are talking of, yes, China does cooperate with Pakistan for
27:30manufacturing and providing or producing the Chinese-based fighter aircraft. Was it used?
27:37If so, in which manner? Did China provide any intelligence? You know, when we talk about ISR,
27:44which is the new kind of availability of the air picture, you know, today technology allows you to sit
27:51in a place as far away as you can imagine, thousands of kilometers away and have the complete tactical picture
27:58and share it with whichever platform you want, whether it's the command or it's the specific
28:02fighter aircraft or the controllers and so on and so forth. Again, there are stray reports which have
28:08not been verified that China has provided this. But I'd be very hesitant to accept it because China is
28:14always very cautious. As in the case of Ukraine, it may provide a certain amount of assistance.
28:21But getting directly involved in the tactics of the war.
28:24These planes and missiles will finally use this report.
28:27So we'll have to see about this. But these are two factors that one, technology, other, Pakistan's
28:33ability to obtain support of this type is going to be a new challenge for India.
28:40I mean, it is difficult to talk about the Indo-Pakistan relationship in the future and how it will find out.
28:45But I remember, you know, our former foreign minister, Natwar Singh, who was also an
28:49high commissioner to Pakistan in the 80s, once talked to a group of editors saying that
28:56India-Pakistan relationship is one of the most accident-prone relationships in the world.
29:01And this has been holding good in terms of India and Pakistan for a very long time.
29:11Just when things seem to be going all right, something happens and the things go off track.
29:18Now, how do you see the future? Because India has said that there is no question of a
29:24face-to-face meeting yet. It's too premature. Pakistan is keen to have a talks, direct talks,
29:34and a dialogue with US mediation. US has given us good offices and talked about neutral things.
29:40So how do you, as an analyst, see the picture? I mean, these are just guesses.
29:46You know, three months from now or six months from now, how do you see various scenarios?
29:52You know, one of the more positive kind of scenarios that one would like to envision,
29:59we know what the negative consequences of more
30:03Pahalgam-like incidents and more Opsindur kind of responses will lead to a higher spiral of death
30:10and destruction, which I think South Asia can do without. Meaning that if you see what is happening
30:17in Ukraine now or you see what is happening in the Middle East in terms of Gaza, Palestine, or you see
30:23parts of Africa where these long festering wars, for instance, in Sudan and Congo elsewhere are
30:28playing out, the heaviest price is paid by the most vulnerable. And South Asia is
30:37the characteristic of human security indicator rather of human security in South Asia is very,
30:45very below the median. It's of a low order. You don't want to add to their misery with wars because
30:51of decisions taken by the leadership. So to that extent, we do not want to go down that path as a
30:57region as South Asia. The more positive interpretation would be, and I say this maybe tentatively, that
31:07both sides have to consider delinking their bilateral from the domestic political compulsion
31:16or even the domestic power compulsion in the case of Pakistan, because the army has appropriated
31:23a certain amount of unbridled power unto itself. And that is not domestic politics. That is just
31:30domestic power grabbing. In the Indian case, we have seen that over the last 10, 15 years,
31:37domestic political compulsions have in a way colored or tempered the way in which India has been
31:43dealing with Pakistan in particular. So I think, I know that's the sad part. That's the sad part. I think
31:51that is the acknowledgement we need also here about, do we want to continue this kind of uneasy
31:57relationship with the border being hot with Pakistan, an uneasy relationship with China where
32:03Galwan has become the symbol? Or is it possible that we are able to rewire the politics? And that's
32:09where I think Prime Minister Modi, given his own profile and his relationship with the global leadership,
32:15whether it is President Putin or the king in Saudi Arabia elsewhere, that whether it's possible to
32:21have these quiet dialogues without commitments and away from any kind of possible domestic backlash
32:28and get stakeholders. I mean, we need more
32:32peacemongers, if one can use that word, and find especially the younger generation.
32:38And if I could end this on a personal note, Tarun, both you and I are grandparents,
32:44and we are looking at a generation that may inherit a very, very, I would say, bleak kind of landscape.
32:55And that is something that the generation in between, those who are in their 20s and 30s,
33:02should become aware of the positive possibilities, the potential of this region,
33:07and see how the domestic politics and the domestic framework can be shaped for this long-term objective.
33:17You are so right. You know, while we are all relieved of the ceasefire that came into effect last evening,
33:26but it looks somewhat fragile, but it has held. But the times are uncertain. The future is still very,
33:32very uncertain. And I mean, as to quote Natwar Singh again, accidents can happen all the time between
33:39India and Pakistan, in a diplomatic way, in a military way, in a non-state actor intervention,
33:48or anything can happen. But as you say, the future lies with the young. And there are peace groups in India,
33:55in Pakistan, the younger generation, a lot of them outside India, who are deeply invested in peace and
34:04in stability. And one that the two countries live together, and in harmony and communal and
34:12international bilateral stability. So with this hope, I think we, the next time we talk again,
34:20we hope that we'll have more positive things to talk about the relationship. But right now, thank you for
34:26the conversation. And I think we are able to give a little bit of insight and peek into what happened in the
34:33last three tumultuous weeks. And, you know, we keep our fingers crossed for a better future for the
34:43people of the two countries. Thank you. Thank you, Tarun. Thank you.