Denver Nuggets vs. Clippers Game Seven Betting Preview

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00:00Let's just kind of lay it all out there.

00:01Nuggets, Clippers, what do we like?

00:03207 total, one and a half spread for Denver at home,

00:06minus 122 on that money line.

00:09Certainly the type of game, if you like Denver,

00:11you're laying the minus 122.

00:12If you like the Clippers, I mean, you're probably

00:14grabbing the post 104, but I wouldn't hate to have a point

00:16in my back pocket just in case.

00:18A little bit of a safety net if you can find it.

00:20The Nuggets and the Clippers here.

00:23Again, Jay, what do you like in this game?

00:25What are you betting in this game?

00:26Who are you trusting in this one?

00:27I have to go with the home team in a game seven.

00:29I know that they've lost a game seven in the past,

00:32but I'm going to go with the Denver Nuggets on the money line

00:35to win this game tonight.

00:37I just think they'll be able to find a way to close it out.

00:40I'm going to that Michael Porter Jr. over one and a half

00:43made threes because I just think if they're going to win,

00:45he's got it.

00:46He's got to knock down two.

00:48So I'm looking at Michael Porter Jr. over one and a half

00:50made threes.

00:51I'm looking at Nikola Jokic over six and a half points

00:53in the first quarter, and I'm going to lay off

00:56the James Harden stuff and just keep everything

00:58when I have time strictly on the Nuggets.

01:01Right.

01:01Ultimately, I do think the Nuggets come away with the win.

01:04That's how I'm doing this game.

01:06But with that said, the Kawhi prop that I already have

01:09is Kawhi over 33 and a half points plus rebounds.

01:12I think that's what will make this game competitive.

01:14Now, there are ways to say, like, if Kawhi doesn't hit this over,

01:18they are losing this game.

01:20That, I think, is also fair to say.

01:22But I do think they keep it competitive.

01:23I think we see the Nuggets ultimately win by, let's call it,

01:26five points.

01:27I think that would be a fair assessment.

01:29Some late rethrows.

01:30I think the Nuggets come away with the win.

01:32They absolutely cover that one and a half number.

01:34I think they win by five points, whatever it might be.

01:35Kawhi himself has a very good game.

01:38But the rest of the team, I'm not going to include the

01:40hard in narrative.

01:41But the rest of the team just doesn't have enough

01:43to put the pieces together.

01:45Kawhi, by the way, like, under the radar villain to me

01:49in this, so I do, like, in my pre-series breakdowns,

01:55you know, if you like a bet for game one,

01:57it probably is going to carry over.

01:59And one of that was Kawhi rebounds and assists,

02:01as well as Kawhi to have a double-double,

02:03which in game number one was nine and a half,

02:04with a double-double coming in at six to one.

02:06He didn't get there.

02:07That's fine.

02:07We'll play it again in game two.

02:09He doesn't get there.

02:09I'm like, all right, maybe I'm off base.

02:12And now he's had a double-double in three or four games.

02:14He's gone over his rebounds and assists

02:15in every single one of the games.

02:17I was on him last game.

02:18Great look.

02:19Again, pre-series, I was all about it.

02:21This guy, you know, he was able to shake my tail.

02:24I like Kawhi tonight, though, to score the basketball,

02:28specifically from beyond the arc.

02:30Kawhi, when he is on, can be one of the most efficient shooters

02:33in basketball, and that's not just inside the arc,

02:36but from beyond it as well.

02:38And I like him for three-plus made threes at plus 140.

02:41But my favorite way to play it is to pair him

02:44with Nikoli Okic over four-and-a-half made combined

02:47at plus 120.

02:49If you look so far in this series,

02:52both guys have had some big games.

02:55They actually each shot made four in game two.

02:58You get all the way up to eight.

02:59But neither guy has made three in the last two games, right?

03:05I think it is.

03:07I would be pretty surprised if one of them didn't make

03:09at least three in this game.

03:12That combined made threes market sometimes will really jump out

03:16if you find a guy you love,

03:18because they can do so much of the damage for you.

03:21I had one the other night with Malik Beasley up against him

03:23and Kat over five-and-a-half.

03:27And Beasley made, you know, six, seven threes in that game.

03:30I think one of these guys could knock four down tonight.

03:33You know that they will grab the bull by the horns in this one.

03:39And I think that will also come with some elevated volume

03:43from beyond the arc.

03:44Yeah.

03:44I always like those type of bets

03:46just because there's multiple paths that you scored.

03:49And it's combined.

03:50So it could be a four-and-one, whatever it might be.

03:53So those orders get defined.

03:55Obviously, not every book offers all of those.

03:57And that's always important to note where you're not always...

04:00And even if they do,

04:01sometimes the lines are dramatically different.

04:03So shop for those.

04:04But I like the path.

04:05Like, listen, Kawhi's going to hit three.

04:07He's going to hit four on his own.

04:08You only need that one from Yoko's

04:09or whatever Mike combo you're looking for might be.

04:12It's important for both teams to knock down threes early.

04:15I just think it kind of sets the tone here.

04:18Kevin, they have that market on FanDuel.

04:21Three-by-two.

04:22No, don't do this.

04:23Three-by-two.

04:24Three-by-two.

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