Decoding Game Seven Struggles: Analyzing Jokic's Scoring Dip

SportsGrid

Watch Decoding Game Seven Struggles: Analyzing Jokic's Scoring Dip - SportsGrid on Dailymotion

Transcript

00:00As we try and figure out the way to attack a game seven in Denver, let's start with Nicola

00:06Jokic because the Joker is having a great series.

00:10We know that averaging the triple double, but I'm going to suggest again, he's having

00:18a great series.

00:20I think he is likely been the best player in the playoffs up until this point, but there

00:25is one aspect I think he has been underwhelming by his standards, and that is scoring the

00:33basketball because Jokic was a top three point per game guy in the NBA this year.

00:40Jokic averaged his career high in points this season, a tick under 30.

00:45The routine for Nicola Jokic in the playoffs is to up his scoring average without fail.

00:52He's had a number of postseasons where he's averaged 30 a game, so for Jokic to come

00:57off of a regular season where he's giving you nearly 30 a game and to right now only have

01:03one 30 point performance in the series, I do think is a little bit surprising.

01:09Again, I am not even saying this in a Jokic isn't doing enough way.

01:13I'm talking about it's just surprising he's not scoring that much, and it's obviously impacting

01:19then how you attack the prop markets because he has been an under in this series more than

01:26he has been an over.

01:28What do you think about Jokic, Tom, scoring the ball triple-double-wise?

01:32Any value for you?

01:33You know, at this point, it depends on what narrative we're buying into.

01:36If we are buying into the narrative that the Clippers are going to do their due diligence

01:41and throw the extra defensive resources at Jokic, then yeah, it does make sense that

01:47under 28 and a half would be the spot to go.

01:49And it's a little bit juicy, at least I'm seeing here on FanDuel minus 132, but if we're

01:53buying into the narrative that MPJ and Gordon have to do more, they have to score more, and

01:58it's not going to be as much Jokic, then buying into unders and or overs on his assist props

02:05because MPJ does have to knock down those 33s.

02:08We have to tell ourselves a story about what we want to see in this game, so I think the

02:12under 28 and a half would be the spot to look for Jokic.

02:15It's not to say that he can't have a triple-double, even if he does go under on that.

02:20So that's where I'm initially leaning.

02:21His PRA prop is sitting at, was it 49 and a half?

02:25Yeah, it's big time.

02:25Yeah, 49 and a half.

02:26So listen, there's a chance that he still goes over that and under on the points.

02:30Now, obviously, we're working with some thin margins at that point, but under 28 and

02:33a half would be my initial look.

02:34What do you think in here, J.Y.?

02:35You know, when Kevin and I did the show last Saturday, I said that they had to get the

02:41game, they had to get him the ball early.

02:42Yep.

02:43And he had to, and I think it's points prop that game, if I'm not right, Kevin, I think

02:46it was seven and a half, and he needed like a half court, he needed some kind of crazy

02:49shot to hit it.

02:51But to me, when you have the quote-unquote best player in the world in this series, like

02:57you just look at the shot attempts, 16, 14, 25, 13, 22.

03:04You can't live with this guy getting me 12, 13, 14 shots.

03:09You don't have a shot in hell.

03:10You don't.

03:11Because he's got to be able to force issues.

03:13See, so I'm going back to the first quarter, six and a half points and going over.

03:19Because I think what they may do is they may go ahead and go ahead and early before the

03:24substitution of platoon comes into the game and try to take advantage of it early and

03:29often.

03:30You often want to see players in this spot say, you know what?

03:34You got to grab the bull by the horns and you have to go to attack mode early.

03:37Like, if I'm looking at Nikola Jokic at the end of the first quarter, and it's like, I

03:42don't know, game number, I think it was game number six, where I think he took like, or

03:46game five, we took like three shots in the first quarter.

03:48Like, that's a problem.

03:50That's a major problem.

03:52I would say Nikola Jokic goes over his points prop.

03:54I mean, there's part of me I've never bet first basket.

03:57Part of me is like, first basket's got to go to Nikola Jokic.

03:59Like, get the ball inside, go to work.

04:02If you get a foul call on Zubak, you get a foul call on Zubak.

04:05But I need to see Nikola Jokic be established early and often over six and a half points

04:10first quarter.

04:11So, I think that Jokic could be in line for a really strong three-point shooting game.

04:17He has kind of moved, you know, up and down throughout the series in that market.

04:24The same is true for Kawhi.

04:25So, if I had to pick between the two, Kawhi for three plus made threes is a plus 140, is

04:32my favorite, again, of the two options.

04:34Kawhi last game, two of eight, three straight games without three made threes.

04:38It's a clear and obvious bounce back spot.

04:40In a game seven, you know the minutes are going to be big time.

04:42I think the volume will be big time.

04:44But my favorite way to play either guy is bringing them together.

04:48I always talk about this, the head-to-head player prop market on DK.

04:51Jokic and Kawhi to combine over four and a half made threes is plus 140.

04:55I think one of them getting you four is totally on the board there.

05:00I don't know if I can find an alt market of them maybe combined for six or so.

05:03I'll take a look.

05:04I think you are going to see those two superstars stand up.

Category

Transcript

Recommended