The Cowboys Are SET On Their 1st Round Pick, According To Oddsmakers...

AtoZ Sports

Mauricio Rodriguez talks about the betting odds surrounding the 2025 NFL Draft and the Dallas Cowboys, focusing in on what Vegas sees happening for America's Team in the 1st round.

Transcript

00:00They say Vegas knows all, and I believe that applies to the NFL draft and specifically to the Dallas Cowboys number 12 overall pick.

00:08Here's what the betting odds are saying about what the Cowboys will or won't do in the first round.

00:17Hey, what's up, everyone? It's Mauricio Rodriguez here at ADZ Sports Dallas.

00:21Have you ever looked at a betting spread on Sunday and been like, wait, why is this team favored by only three points?

00:29Maybe you're talking about the best team in the NFL going up against the worst team in the league, and they are playing at home.

00:35They're still favored just by three points, which sounds crazy to you.

00:39A lot of people, specifically casual bettors, will look at that number and be like, man, that's easy money.

00:45But savvy, experienced bettors will look at it with different eyes.

00:48They will think something's up. They know something. I don't.

00:52Well, I applied that line of thinking to the NFL draft and spent a long time looking at NFL draft odds.

00:59To try and come up with a conclusion as to what Vegas is thinking about the Cowboys number 12 overall pick.

01:06And I came away with three key takeaways, including the answer to the biggest question on Cowboys fans' minds right now.

01:14But before we get to that one, number one on the list, the Cowboys are not going to pick a running back.

01:18Early, early in the NFL draft process, Ashton Gentry was linked to the Cowboys in just about every single mock draft out there.

01:26Then it became pretty clear that Gentry is going to be a top 10 pick on Thursday.

01:31So then we pivoted to Amarion Hampton.

01:34Now, not every NFL draft expert was on this one, but Mel Kuyper Jr. from ESPN, one of the top draft insiders out there,

01:42had the North Carolina running back to the Cowboys in three consecutive mocks, which obviously was something.

01:49Plus, Hampton was one of the Cowboys' top 30 visits leading up to the draft.

01:53So the pairing made sense, not to mention the Cowboys absolutely need running back help after losing Rico Dowdle

02:01and just having Javante Williams, Miles Sanders, and Deuce Vaughn.

02:05So for a long time, Hampton made sense.

02:08But I think it's very unlikely that they'd end up going that route, and Vegas seems to think so too.

02:14Running back is plus 800 to be the Cowboys' first pick in the NFL draft,

02:18meaning that if you bet $100 on that happening, you would get $800 in winnings.

02:24And just a quick parenthesis here for those unfamiliar with betting odds,

02:28the more positive a number is, the less likely that is to happen,

02:33while the most negative number is the least likely to happen.

02:37Specifically, running back is the fifth likeliest position, according to Vegas,

02:41to be addressed by the Cowboys.

02:43And that is a pretty low ranking, if you ask me, especially for a top 15 pick.

02:48In other words, I think Hampton is ruled out.

02:51So let's move on to the number two inside here,

02:54and that is the top three positions they are likely going to target.

02:58And according to the betting odds, that is wide receiver, offensive line, cornerback in that same order.

03:04The biggest takeaway here is that a wide receiver is at a negative minus 115.

03:08That means you would have to bet $115 to make $100 in profit,

03:15and that officially makes it a heavy favorite going into pick number 12.

03:20Now, you and I know this.

03:21A lot of talk has been about the Tararoa McMillan from Arizona and Matthew Golden.

03:26So those two names stand out at wide out.

03:29Surprisingly, offensive line is number two.

03:31I've thought offensive line has been ruled out by the Cowboys just based on their free agency signings.

03:36But I guess there's maybe one guy that they really like.

03:40And keep an eye out for a trade down where they target offensive line.

03:44Daniel Jeremiah talked about that recently in a press conference call.

03:48So that's a strong possibility as well.

03:50Offensive line at plus 450, the second likeliest position the Cowboys will target in the first round.

03:56And last but not least, at number three, cornerback.

03:59And I think this is all about Will Johnson.

04:01If the Michigan cornerback falls to number 12 overall, there is a clear need from the team.

04:07With Trevon Diggs dealing with injury and having lost Jordan Lewis in free agency, it would make sense.

04:12And that's why I brought up Will Johnson in my five potential surprises video from earlier in the week.

04:17But now for the number three and most important takeaway of the day.

04:22And this is an answer to a question that many Cowboys fans have.

04:26And this is a little bit of a closer one.

04:28And so there's some insight here, but not enough, maybe.

04:31And that is, what about if Matthew Golden and Ted McMillan are both there?

04:37What if the top two wide receivers, excluding Travis Hunter, are available for the taking for Dallas?

04:43Who do they choose?

04:45There have been some insiders that have heavily implied that they would pick Golden.

04:50We've seen plenty of mocks with Golden to the Cowboys, even though McMillan is there too.

04:55But we've also heard people like Dane Brugler suggest that they believe that if both are there, then McMillan would be the pick.

05:03I think Vegas believes it would be McMillan.

05:06At the very least, here's what we know.

05:08Las Vegas heavily thinks McMillan is going to be the first wide out of the board.

05:13In fact, he's at minus 200 while Golden is plus 140.

05:18That isn't the biggest spread, but it does mean McMillan is a significant favorite here.

05:24And if that is the case, then the only question is, is a team going to pick a wide receiver before the Cowboys do?

05:30Again, excluding Hunter.

05:32The biggest team that could do it, it appears, is the Carolina Panthers at number eight.

05:37Maybe the New Orleans Saints at number nine.

05:39I think those are the two biggest threats for the Cowboys if they want McMillan.

05:44So on the one hand, it's maybe likelier, because it's almost a guarantee that Golden is going to be there at number 12.

05:51So naturally, he is the likeliest prospect to be picked.

05:55But if McMillan is there, I bet it's McMillan, and it seems to be what Vegas thinks.

06:00But now let me know what you think in the comments down below.

06:03Who is going to be the Cowboys' number 12 overall pick next Thursday?

06:06I'm looking forward to seeing your thoughts.

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