Aaron Judge Early MVP Favorite: An MLB Betting Analysis

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00:00On the AL MVP odds, keep in mind people, it's April the 6th right now.

00:04Nobody's separated themselves from the pack where they have 35 home runs.

00:07The next closest guy has three home runs, like we're talking in 1917

00:10with Babe Ruth and the rest of the American League.

00:12Take a look at these numbers on Aaron Judge to win the MVP.

00:16We take a look, right.

00:17Aaron Judge, minus 115, is the biggest first week MVP favorite in DK sports history.

00:22That's a bonus prize there, Tom.

00:24Why?

00:25Because today, right now, on the FanDuel Sportsbook,

00:27Aaron Judge to win this award, minus 175.

00:35Minus 175 is an insane price when we are nine games into the season,

00:40eight games into the season.

00:42And we have to remember, this is, you know, something we've discussed.

00:45It's not as if the season ends on September 30th or whatever it is, October 1st,

00:50and you win the award.

00:51The awards are not announced until the winter meetings at the beginning of December.

00:56You were locking up a minus 155 or minus 175 price for a judge until December.

01:02And I said this to Joe Ranieri yesterday on InGameLive,

01:05because we talked about this market as well.

01:07We can find an Aaron Judge prop today that is minus 175,

01:12and you can cash that bet today or tomorrow and have that amount.

01:17Why do not bet on that?

01:18Do not keep this locked up for the next eight months at a minus 175 price.

01:22That is insane.

01:24Like it's like nobody like roots against like you.

01:26The expectations are a judge is going to be there right in the end,

01:29but it's not about that.

01:30It's a long baseball season.

01:32He takes a pitch off of the forearm or off of the wrist there,

01:35and this is three to four weeks.

01:36He can't win the award at that point.

01:38People are going to pass him by, and that's what we look at.

01:39Unless he runs out to a, I have a 15 home run lead by the time I get injured,

01:43and I'll see you in the next three weeks at this point.

01:45Minus 175 through roughly one week of the season is insane.

01:50Now, also, we could talk about insanity being

01:51Shohei Ohtani at a plus 125 price in the National League.

01:54Have we ever saw, Tom, the leaders in the clubhouse this far ahead,

01:59this early in the season is pure insanity.

02:02No, and even if a player like Judge does miss three weeks,

02:05and then we'd be comparing him to Bobby Witt or Gunnar Henderson,

02:08at this point, this is what would happen.

02:09They're going to say, Judge played fewer games, but his OPS is higher.

02:13His war is higher.

02:14His this is, oh, Bobby Witt does this more.

02:16Bobby Witt does that more.

02:17So now we're leaving things up to,

02:18I'm not going to say chance,

02:20but now we're leaving up a market until December that you have minus odds on?

02:24No.

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