Analyzing Chris Bassett's Performance Against Baltimore's Lineup

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00:00Yeah, for me, take a look at Chris Bassett.

00:01I'm not saying like a fade type of guy,

00:03because last year he was wonderful against right-handed batters.

00:05075 ISO against 281 weighted on base percentage,

00:08which is phenomenal,

00:09but got into a little bit of trouble against left-handed batters.

00:12An ISO of 180 and a weighted on base percentage of 385.

00:15Last year, total 171 innings pitched a 428 XFIP number at this point.

00:20But if we are trying to say, you know,

00:21where can I go on that Orioles lineup,

00:23which I don't believe we have all the way out,

00:25but I factored in on O'Hearn.

00:27Somebody going to bat probably that 3-4-5 area.

00:29Last year, very good ISO power number against right-handed pitching

00:32and a weighted on base percentage.

00:34Figure he'll be in the middle of that lineup.

00:35That 3-6-5 had a prop here for RBI for him at plus 175.

00:40And if I was going to do again,

00:41the hits, runs, and RBI market,

00:43we just won a piece with three players.

00:45This is a plus 125.

00:47It's Mullins, Couser, and O'Hearn each again

00:50to combine some form of hit, run, or RBI in that game at a plus 125,

00:54but not a lot of action for you on the other side

00:55because I'm just not so sure, Tom,

00:57how to approach that new starting pitcher.

00:58That's all for me.

01:00Yeah, I would say the same thing.

01:01You know, I wish you could do this, this hit, run, RBI, little parlay,

01:05but you could, I would say, pick two.

01:07Like it's, again, this is the same thing.

01:08We're going to have a conversation a lot,

01:10like O'Hearn and Couser.

01:12Couser and Rutschman.

01:13Rutschman and O'Hearn, pick your two favorites and roll with that.

01:16I'm just not convinced Chris Bassett's a good pitcher overall.

01:20It's as simple as that.

01:21It's a really straightforward game.

01:23Yeah, we're going to be doing that all the time.

01:25And again, I'm not really bringing up the weather conditions.

01:27Obviously, it's in Toronto.

01:28If it's nice, which I don't think it's actually supposed to be,

01:29I expect that dome to be closed today.

01:31But I'm a big fan of the domes are open in the summer.

01:33Let the heat and humidity in.

01:34Let some of that wind sort of carry those baseballs over the fence.

01:37Let's take a look at 140 p.m.

01:39Start.

01:39Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, 955, 956 on the rotation.

01:43San Francisco and Cincinnati.

01:45Robbie Ray, the left, he'll be on the mound going up against Martinez

01:48on the opposite side here for the Reds.

01:50This total opened up at eight and a half.

01:51Some outlets are showing as low as eight with some juice,

01:53but primarily eight and a half across the board.

01:55Slight favorite.

01:56However, for San Francisco at a minus 126 price and that's anywhere

02:00between 120 now to 122.

02:03So just about a coin flip here, San Francisco and Cincinnati here

02:06today, Tom.

02:07Yeah, a little bit of rain actually expected.

02:09So just double check on that.

02:11Robbie Ray looked good in spring, but we have to remember that Robbie

02:15Ray really hasn't pitched of the past two years.

02:17He had 30 innings last year and that was after the all-star break and

02:21the year before that, he only pitched three innings because that was

02:23when he got hurt two years ago.

02:25Missed the entire first half of last year, but he did look good in

02:28spring.

02:28This is a picture that historically could really push a 30% strikeout

02:32rate. Like he was truly one of the best strikeout pitchers when he was

02:34with the Diamondbacks specifically winning, you know, all-star all

02:37those years as they spend time with Toronto and Seattle, but really

02:42good strikeout pitcher does struggle with walks has historically

02:45struggled with home runs, but he was got that under control.

02:47At least in his last full season Martinez on the other side.

02:50He had a sub 25% hard contact rate versus both lefties and righties,

02:53which is absolutely unbelievable.

02:55However, he did allow a fly ball rate at 41% versus both lefties and

02:59righties.

02:59So does not give up hard contact does not strike a lot, but the fly

03:03balls could be an issue, especially at a ballpark like the Great

03:06American Small Park.

03:07There could be some RBI potential from the Giants.

03:09I'm far more interested to see Robbie Ray and what he does on the

03:13mound today.

03:13I think this game is okay for offense, but certainly not one of my

03:16favorites.

03:17No, certainly not on mine.

03:18Like I had a lot of things written down for the first couple games

03:21went over.

03:21I don't have much on this one sort of pointing a little bit more

03:23towards an under.

03:24But if you do take a look at Robbie Ray the left-handed pitcher, he's

03:27been explosive in the past and he's been bad in the past.

03:30You take a look at last year.

03:31Not a lot of innings pitch 30 and two-thirds innings pitch with an

03:34x-fifth number of 4.09.

03:36He's a left-handed pitcher that actually did really good in his 104

03:40bats against right-handed batters to the tune of 176.

03:42I see which is slightly elevated but a very good 290 weighted on

03:45base percentage left handers completely different story only face

03:4925 and they lit him up.

03:50However, you look at the Reds lineup, which is out today.

03:53Only one expected left-handed batter in that lineup is Gavin Lux.

03:56So I really don't want to say, okay, let's go.

03:58All righties and he did well with that last year.

03:59So really one of those no plays for me.

04:02I'll watch your play out.

04:03See how both of these pictures do on equal sides here.

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