If Sarkozy were to be convicted and imprisoned, 'it would have huge political repercussions'

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00:00Closing arguments in the trial of France's former president, Nicolas Sarkozy, bristling

00:06against the request by the prosecution for a seven-year sentence against the conservative

00:16leader Sarkozy, who is accused of bankrolling his 2007 campaign where he won the presidency

00:28thanks to financing by Muammar Gaddafi's Libya, Gaddafi who, several months later, was feted

00:35with a state visit to Paris, the former French president calling it an outrage.

00:45The hearing showed that Sarkozy never asked Gaddafi for any funding whatsoever.

00:52So why did the prosecutors request such heavy sentences?

00:56To compensate for the weakness of their arguments.

01:03And for more, let's cross to columnist and political strategist Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet.

01:09Thank you for speaking with us here on France 24.

01:12Hello, François.

01:15There are several cases pending against Nicolas Sarkozy.

01:19He's already been convicted once and has to wear an electronic bracelet.

01:24But arguably, this is the big one.

01:26Yes, this is the biggest one, and obviously the biggest scandal that he has to face.

01:33This connection with Libya is at the heart of what investigative reporters have been

01:38working on Sarkozy for many, many years.

01:42So the outcome is really something that could be huge.

01:46If he's guilty and if his sentence, he could actually go to jail.

01:53That will be the first time ever that a former president, and you know the importance of

01:59the president in the French institutions, that would be the first time that the president

02:03obviously goes to jail.

02:04So it would be unprecedented and politically, it would have huge political repercussions.

02:10And this would be a big test of the independence of the judiciary in France.

02:14What with the current head of state, Emmanuel Macron, who often turns to Sarkozy as an advisor.

02:21Yeah, it has been said in some part of our political spectrum, on the far right especially,

02:27it has been said that there was kind of an agreement between Emmanuel Macron and Nicolas

02:32Sarkozy, but it doesn't seem to be true.

02:34And we have a strong judiciary in France, and it has demonstrated many times over that

02:40it was perfectly independent.

02:43Even at the eve of one of our last presidential elections, one of the candidates had been

02:48subjected to trial.

02:50And he had to, you know, give up the election altogether because of that.

02:54So we have strong institutions, judiciary especially.

02:58So what we see now is that he has to face judgment, he has to go to court, he has been

03:06many times yet, and he will go many times more.

03:11And that's a testimony to the independence of our institutions.

03:17And independence of institutions, France, which has a strong executive like in the United

03:23States.

03:24But it's different.

03:25Yes, obviously, it's different.

03:28We can see that now, first of all, because, well, he is going to court and he may be sentenced

03:35and there is no way escaping it.

03:38And he has already been sentenced.

03:40So it's something that is common law here, if you could say that.

03:44In the U.S., obviously, we saw what could be the consequences, and they are dire, of

03:50a lack of independence of the judiciary.

03:54We see live nowadays, unfortunately, what could be the consequences of a lack of a strength

04:02on the part of the judiciary towards the politicians and towards the political leaders.

04:09And it's especially important when you want to select a president.

04:12We should absolutely make sure that there is no way that someone that could be indicted

04:18or has been indicted or is in the middle of a trial could be elected.

04:22That's something that we really need to take care of.

04:26Let's talk about the facts of the case.

04:29Is Nicolas Sarkozy right that it's outrageous to demand a seven-year sentence?

04:34Well, it's normal that we say that.

04:37He has lawyers and they need to defend him.

04:40No, it's actually, it's not exactly a mild sentence, but it's not exactly also a heavy

04:49sentence, heavy thing.

04:51So it's, let's say, it's what is unprecedented is that he actually can go to jail.

04:58I mean, whether it's one year, two years, seven years, it won't be the main point here.

05:04The main point would be that a former president could go to jail.

05:08And listen, this Libyan affair is something really heavy because there was actually a

05:13country that has been politically changed due to the action of Nicolas Sarkozy, Libya.

05:20The leader was overthrown, if you remember correctly.

05:23It's a long time ago, but still.

05:25And Nicolas Sarkozy was involved in all that.

05:27So there would be a question mark if he's convicted on, was it a thing to do to overthrow

05:33the Libyan leader?

05:34Why did we do that?

05:35And so on, so on.

05:37Well, the question, in other words, what you're saying is the question is whether or not Nicolas

05:42Sarkozy was shooting at the man he owed money to?

05:46That will, that's a question that will be raised.

05:48Absolutely.

05:49If he's convicted, that's, that's a huge, huge, huge question.

05:52And if you look at Libya now, the consequences of what has been done at the time are really

05:57dire.

05:58So it's, maybe it was not, and it's probably not a place or the place of any other state

06:05to interfere in internal Libyan affairs.

06:08One final question.

06:10You're saying that some of this now for the French citizens seems like the past, history

06:16to a degree, since Nicolas Sarkozy has been out of power since 2012.

06:23There's another trial next Monday where there's going to be a verdict, and that is for whether

06:27or not Marine Le Pen, over illicit financing through EU parliamentarians, could be stripped

06:37of office and a bid, her bid to run for president.

06:42Is that going to be much more explosive in the eyes of the French?

06:46Yes, it is.

06:47I mean, the combination of the two could be dire.

06:50If, if Marine Le Pen is, the main point with Marine Le Pen is if she is sentenced and she

06:56might be convicted, she might be sentenced.

06:59If she is, can she be elected in 2027, the next presidential election?

07:04That is what is at stake.

07:05The judge could declare her not suitable for the election, and she couldn't be a candidate.

07:11And that's, that would be a huge thing.

07:13It will be a real problem if she would be convicted and not being able to be a candidate.

07:19And if on the other hand, Nicolas Sarkozy would not be convicted and, you know, escape

07:24free from, from the, from, from this trial, get out free of this trial.

07:30So the problem would be the comparison between the two.

07:35We will see.

07:36But what we have to know for the moment is that there is a chance that he go, he would

07:41go to jail, Nicolas Sarkozy, and there is a chance that Marine Le Pen wouldn't be able

07:46to be a candidate.

07:48And in both cases, that's very serious business because money was involved, not, they didn't

07:53take money, apparently, for their own use.

07:57That's not a case of personal enrichment.

08:00They didn't get rich out of it, which is a huge difference, which what, what could happen

08:06might happen, what we think is happening in the States.

08:08Right.

08:09But there is still money that has been taken out of public funds in order to illicitly,

08:15illegally finance political parties.

08:18So it's, in both cases, that's, that's a huge thing.

08:21One quick final question for you, Philippe, because I know that you follow public opinion

08:26and you follow what happens on social media.

08:31We saw in the United States that supporters of Donald Trump think he did nothing wrong

08:35on January 6th and they firmly stand by him.

08:38Will it tear apart France the way it's torn apart the U.S., that whatever the judges say,

08:44if you're one side or the other, you're just going to believe you're for or against your

08:49candidate?

08:51The MAGA supporters will be MAGA's, I mean, for the time being until maybe he dies and

08:56maybe they will still be MAGA's afterwards.

08:58What we may be seeing is...

09:00Is France the same?

09:02Oh, sorry?

09:03Is France the same as the United States on that score?

09:06Not yet.

09:07Not yet.

09:08The Front National, the Rassemblement National, Marine Le Pen's political party is not yet

09:13the MAGA party.

09:14It's still traditional.

09:15So they'll respect what the judges say?

09:18Not exactly.

09:19But first of all, there is an alternative candidate, Jordan Bardella.

09:22Okay, he's much younger, but he has his own aficionados.

09:27He's popular on his own.

09:28He doesn't need Marine Le Pen in order to be a candidate.

09:30He could be a candidate.

09:32He's young, much too young, in my opinion, but he could be a candidate.

09:38She's been defeated several times.

09:40So the good reason out of it, probably there will be a lot of anger, but the people are

09:45already angry at the judiciary on the far right.

09:48They are angry at everything.

09:50And anger is a huge issue politically nowadays.

09:53It would raise the level of their anger, but they are still angry, and they will remain

09:56to be angry.

09:57There won't be any riots.

09:59I don't believe in that.

10:01And there won't be any spectacular things, because people will be waiting the 2027 election

10:07in order to have their revenge if they want to have one.

10:11And again, there is Jordan Bardella, and Jordan Bardella is a new thing, is the sheer populist

10:16thing.

10:17He's not a president whatsoever, he's on TikTok all the time.

10:20The algorithm of TikTok, the algorithm of X, the former Twitter, are pushing him a lot.

10:26I think Elon Musk and others will be supporting Bardella if he's a candidate.

10:31So it's not too bad for the far right if she's not a candidate in the end, there will be

10:35a replacement.

10:36It won't be as successful in my opinion, but we have seen a lot of things in Europe we

10:41didn't believe in, and which are very, very Trumpian.

10:45So you never know.

10:46I don't believe in a riot, but I believe in people voting for a populist candidate.

10:51And of course, if she's not a candidate, maybe they will try to get revenge by voting for

10:56him.

10:57Philippe Manchevrolet, many thanks.

10:59Tests for the judiciary, both with a former president and a future candidate.

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