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Report
Sudan army gains in Khartoum 'symbolic', researcher says
FRANCE 24 English
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3/23/2025
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00:00
For more, we can speak to Marc Lavergne, a head researcher at France's National Center
00:05
for Scientific Research.
00:06
Hello to you, and thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.
00:10
A number of gains in recent days by Sudan's military against the paramilitary RSF.
00:18
How significant were these gains?
00:20
Well, these gains are first of all symbolic, because the Caesar of the Central Palace in
00:29
the capital city is a major turn of events, because it shows the kind of accountability
00:36
for the army.
00:37
But at the same time, this turn of events might symbolize a return to square one, which
00:46
is to the dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir.
00:50
So it's now to be seen if the rebels, or so-called rebels, that is the support forces,
01:00
will return to their home in Darfur and continue the war, which is likely because they have
01:06
the support of a large amount of communities, either political or regional, so the war is
01:13
not over.
01:14
The war is not over.
01:16
Questions about, as you say, how the rapid support forces respond to this.
01:20
My concern is, will the fighting intensify, or do you think it'll become more localized?
01:27
It's a matter of foreign support, first of all, in order to get weapons.
01:32
And this is the problem of the rapid support forces at the moment.
01:36
They need to refurbish their troops with weapons, which are provided mainly by the United Arab
01:46
Emirates or some other friendly countries in Africa.
01:49
But at the same time, they have to go back to their stronghold in Darfur, and the war
01:55
might continue mainly in this remote area of Sudan, which is really in a turmoil with
02:03
a lot of shareholders somehow, not only the rapid support forces, but other regional and
02:12
tribal groupings that are, I mean, the whole of the country somehow will be hard to get
02:21
back by the army, because the army has also its limits, despite the fact that it is supported
02:27
by Egypt and by other foreign countries.
02:31
So this withdrawal will not end the war.
02:36
And only 10 days ago, UNICEF's Catherine Russell said, quote, this is not just a crisis, it
02:41
is a poly-crisis affecting every sector from health and nutrition, water, education and
02:46
protection.
02:48
Just how serious is a humanitarian situation on the ground?
02:53
It's awful.
02:54
I mean, the civilian population is bearing the brunt of different kinds of attacks somehow.
03:01
I mean, the farmers are hit by the nomads and the people from the peripheries of Sudan
03:08
are trying to get to find safety in South and Sudan, which was, I mean, the opposite
03:15
in the former time, when South and Sudan took its independence from Northern Sudan.
03:20
Now it's a kind of sanctuary for the Southerners, for the Northerners, the same as for Chad.
03:26
I mean, people are getting out of the country wherever they can, to Egypt or abroad, in
03:33
other continents even.
03:35
So the country is in a turmoil.
03:38
It has no government anymore, no civilian forces, somehow, despite the fact that the
03:44
so-called rebels, which were support forces and not rebels, they were accomplices to the
03:50
National Army.
03:51
Now they are supported by other African countries in the South, by Kenya, by Uganda.
03:57
And this may make the war continue forever, because the two forces are somehow balanced.
04:06
Despite the fact that the army seized the capital city, it doesn't hold the whole of
04:11
the country, which is three or four times bigger than France.
04:16
With so much of the world's attention on Ukraine, on Gaza, on Donald Trump, Sudan probably not
04:24
getting enough attention, the attention it deserves.
04:27
So I'm curious, how serious is it?
04:30
What are the possible scenarios?
04:32
And is it at risk of becoming a failed state?
04:34
Yes, certainly.
04:35
It's not only a civilian crisis or a human crisis.
04:39
It's also a political crisis, because the whole of the region around is in turmoil.
04:45
Think of what happens now in Gaza, what happens in Ethiopia, what happens in Congo, what happens
04:53
in Yemen.
04:54
This all is a surrounding of very unstable area.
05:02
Think of Libya and major countries around, like Iran, Turkey, maybe Russia, maybe others,
05:11
are trying to find their way and to find some use of this turmoil all around the whole of
05:20
Africa and the Red Sea.
05:23
So quickly, we know Albert Scheer was gone.
05:27
There are so many hopes for democracy, but the people are hoping to see that.
05:32
Do you think they should change their expectations, or is there still light at the end of the
05:36
tunnel?
05:37
It seems to be the end of the, I mean, the Western countries didn't play their role in
05:44
supporting the democracy, because some of them prefer to have a stable military state
05:51
than a democracy that opens the gate to different kinds of concerns and of discussions and the
05:58
kind of instability that is necessary after 50 years of independence and of military dictatorship.
06:07
All right, Marc.
06:08
Thank you so much.
06:09
Marc Lavergne speaking to us there.
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