Sudan army gains in Khartoum 'symbolic', researcher says

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00:00For more, we can speak to Marc Lavergne, a head researcher at France's National Center

00:05for Scientific Research.

00:06Hello to you, and thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.

00:10A number of gains in recent days by Sudan's military against the paramilitary RSF.

00:18How significant were these gains?

00:20Well, these gains are first of all symbolic, because the Caesar of the Central Palace in

00:29the capital city is a major turn of events, because it shows the kind of accountability

00:36for the army.

00:37But at the same time, this turn of events might symbolize a return to square one, which

00:46is to the dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir.

00:50So it's now to be seen if the rebels, or so-called rebels, that is the support forces,

01:00will return to their home in Darfur and continue the war, which is likely because they have

01:06the support of a large amount of communities, either political or regional, so the war is

01:13not over.

01:14The war is not over.

01:16Questions about, as you say, how the rapid support forces respond to this.

01:20My concern is, will the fighting intensify, or do you think it'll become more localized?

01:27It's a matter of foreign support, first of all, in order to get weapons.

01:32And this is the problem of the rapid support forces at the moment.

01:36They need to refurbish their troops with weapons, which are provided mainly by the United Arab

01:46Emirates or some other friendly countries in Africa.

01:49But at the same time, they have to go back to their stronghold in Darfur, and the war

01:55might continue mainly in this remote area of Sudan, which is really in a turmoil with

02:03a lot of shareholders somehow, not only the rapid support forces, but other regional and

02:12tribal groupings that are, I mean, the whole of the country somehow will be hard to get

02:21back by the army, because the army has also its limits, despite the fact that it is supported

02:27by Egypt and by other foreign countries.

02:31So this withdrawal will not end the war.

02:36And only 10 days ago, UNICEF's Catherine Russell said, quote, this is not just a crisis, it

02:41is a poly-crisis affecting every sector from health and nutrition, water, education and

02:46protection.

02:48Just how serious is a humanitarian situation on the ground?

02:53It's awful.

02:54I mean, the civilian population is bearing the brunt of different kinds of attacks somehow.

03:01I mean, the farmers are hit by the nomads and the people from the peripheries of Sudan

03:08are trying to get to find safety in South and Sudan, which was, I mean, the opposite

03:15in the former time, when South and Sudan took its independence from Northern Sudan.

03:20Now it's a kind of sanctuary for the Southerners, for the Northerners, the same as for Chad.

03:26I mean, people are getting out of the country wherever they can, to Egypt or abroad, in

03:33other continents even.

03:35So the country is in a turmoil.

03:38It has no government anymore, no civilian forces, somehow, despite the fact that the

03:44so-called rebels, which were support forces and not rebels, they were accomplices to the

03:50National Army.

03:51Now they are supported by other African countries in the South, by Kenya, by Uganda.

03:57And this may make the war continue forever, because the two forces are somehow balanced.

04:06Despite the fact that the army seized the capital city, it doesn't hold the whole of

04:11the country, which is three or four times bigger than France.

04:16With so much of the world's attention on Ukraine, on Gaza, on Donald Trump, Sudan probably not

04:24getting enough attention, the attention it deserves.

04:27So I'm curious, how serious is it?

04:30What are the possible scenarios?

04:32And is it at risk of becoming a failed state?

04:34Yes, certainly.

04:35It's not only a civilian crisis or a human crisis.

04:39It's also a political crisis, because the whole of the region around is in turmoil.

04:45Think of what happens now in Gaza, what happens in Ethiopia, what happens in Congo, what happens

04:53in Yemen.

04:54This all is a surrounding of very unstable area.

05:02Think of Libya and major countries around, like Iran, Turkey, maybe Russia, maybe others,

05:11are trying to find their way and to find some use of this turmoil all around the whole of

05:20Africa and the Red Sea.

05:23So quickly, we know Albert Scheer was gone.

05:27There are so many hopes for democracy, but the people are hoping to see that.

05:32Do you think they should change their expectations, or is there still light at the end of the

05:36tunnel?

05:37It seems to be the end of the, I mean, the Western countries didn't play their role in

05:44supporting the democracy, because some of them prefer to have a stable military state

05:51than a democracy that opens the gate to different kinds of concerns and of discussions and the

05:58kind of instability that is necessary after 50 years of independence and of military dictatorship.

06:07All right, Marc.

06:08Thank you so much.

06:09Marc Lavergne speaking to us there.

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