Analysis: Increased Chinese Activity Around Taiwan Raises Pressure

TaiwanPlus News

Taiwan is reporting the largest volume of Chinese military activity around the country this year that comes just as Taipei announced combat readiness drills.

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00:00Taiwan is reporting the highest amount of Chinese military activity around the country

00:04this year.

00:06The Defense Ministry says a total of 59 Chinese military aircraft and drones were spotted

00:12operating around the country between Monday and Tuesday.

00:15Forty-three of the aircraft flew closer and breached the country's Air Defense Identification

00:20Zone or ADIZ.

00:22Taiwan's military has deployed its own aircraft and released rare images of Chinese drones

00:28flying around the country.

00:30The increase in military activity comes as Taiwan undergoes combat readiness drills with

00:35China carrying out its own military patrols shortly after.

00:41For more on the increased military activity in and around Taiwan, our defense reporter

00:45Jaime O'Conn spoke to Ben Lewis, co-founder of PLA Tracker, which monitors Chinese military

00:51activity around Taiwan.

00:54It looks like China and Taiwan are trading in military exercises and now we're hearing

00:58that 59 Chinese military aircraft were spotted operating around the country.

01:03Is this exchange of exercises something we're going to see more of?

01:06I think it's probably likely that China is going to try and match Taiwan's readiness

01:11drills with its own drills.

01:13I think it's something we've seen them do in the past, kind of at a smaller scale.

01:16If Taiwan is doing like a local drill, PLA activity would be kind of more centralized

01:20around that area where they were doing it.

01:22I think it makes sense that if Taiwan is doing kind of these little Hong Kong, these

01:25general readiness drills, I think it's very apt that a gray zone transition to conflict

01:30is being met with a significant increase in gray zone pressure by Beijing.

01:33What we saw today was UAVs operating around the island doing kind of half circumnavigations.

01:39Likely if there's activity on the east side of Taiwan, sending a UAV out to that side

01:43is a very good signal to say, hey, we can see you over here too, but also to collect

01:46that kind of practical intelligence.

01:48So I think it's always a mix.

01:50There's increasing focus on the practical necessity of we need to be training effectively

01:54on the part of the PLA, but the political component can't be understated.

01:58I mean, it's all about signaling from Beijing.

02:00When we analyze these kinds of incursions, different kinds of aircraft and ships and

02:05now drones, is this a new kind of military pressure that we're seeing from Beijing?

02:09Well, I think that it's kind of an amplified version of what we've had for a very long

02:14time, which is that when Beijing perceives a political development involving Taiwan as

02:18negative, it demonstrates its displeasure by flexing its muscles around Taiwan.

02:24And so I think the Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson coming out and saying this is a punishment

02:28for separatist kind of collusion with outside external parties and seemingly the United

02:33States and then statements made by President Lai, it's what we see every time they do a

02:38major drill.

02:39Joint Sword 2024 A and B were related to perceived secessionist remarks that were made by President

02:45Lai, obviously going back to August 2022, April 2023 again, when you see there's a clear

02:50political relationship.

02:51So I think to have a drill of this size, or at least in this case, seemingly two joint

02:56patrols in one day, they have the capacity to ramp up the pressure and seemingly that's

03:01what they're signaling they're going to do.

03:03We've seen China really stepping up the number of incursions around Taiwan, first in about

03:092021 and then again in 2024.

03:12From your perspective, is this tactic working?

03:16Since May, since President Lai's inauguration, we haven't had a month with less than 200

03:19aircraft in the ADIZ.

03:21200 aircraft in the ADIZ two years ago would have been major news.

03:25I would have been on here talking about it.

03:29I think in terms of the practical effect, yes, it's putting a strain on Taiwan's armed

03:33forces.

03:34Yes, they've had to change the scramble policy now at least two times, if not three times.

03:40Also for China, there's a practical training benefit that we know is happening.

03:45They're cementing their position around Taiwan.

03:47Now it's not surprising to see aircraft on all sides of the island every single day.

03:51Again, that used to be a huge deal.

03:53They've succeeded in altering the status quo.

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