Exploring Final Four Ticket Bets and Market Dynamics

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00:00Do you have any final four tickets and how do you feel about that market?

00:04As opposed to the national championship market ultimately, I like this market

00:08But but again to your point you could have a very good team that gets a bad draw

00:13Yeah, right with these with the seedings

00:16And and just where they are they in the south are they in the east and then it could kill a bracket, right?

00:22I forget which bracket it was last year, tennessee

00:24Uh, I believe oregon there was there was like eight or nine teams that could potentially win

00:29The national championship all in one bracket. So that's where you have to be careful

00:34But if we're talking value on the board, I do like it. I did take memphis

00:38I told you when I took them at 150 to 147 to one to make the final four

00:44They're down to 22 to one now, but some other teams that I like I do like uconn and i'm just going on resume

00:50I know they're not the same team that they were in terms of years past

00:54But again, they have a coach that has won two straight national championships

00:58I gotta believe that they could kick it up at least a little bit and you're getting 15 to one

01:03With the defending back-to-back champs. I think that's great value another team louisville 22 to 1

01:10You're talking about a team. That's what 17 and 2 in the acc this year. I think they're playing

01:15Well, I like the cards to step up at 22 to 1

01:18I'm on this team every year and I have to go back to them

01:21I don't like them this year as much as I like marquette last year, but 26 to 1 now with marquette

01:27I I think to make the final four is just it's crazy. Yeah in terms of the number out of the favorites

01:34houston to me

01:36Has the best value even on top of duke and auburn and the reason why I say that is you're talking about a team

01:43That's undefeated in true road environments that to me

01:47When I bet the tournament matters most when you have a team that can go into forget neutral environments

01:52You can go on the road whether it be conference

01:55And into tough environments at a conference and win games and win by double digits

02:01By 11.2 points per game that holds weight

02:05Yeah, no, look I I I

02:08I mean I could go on I like texas tech too. Yeah, seven and two road team

02:12But so so you don't mind betting in the final four market. No, I like you

02:16So for me, all right, so let's take I think it's easier than obviously winning the whole thing

02:21Correct, and maybe it's because i'm too top of the board minded

02:25But correct like houston is plus 160 to make the final four, right, right?

02:31I would never prefer that bet personally over

02:34Them to win the title, you know 9 to 1 850. I just think there's a huge

02:38The gap there for me is not worth it personally see but like if you have a team like memphis

02:42Yeah, realistically at 150 to 1 do I believe they're going to win the title?

02:47I think they have a shot but they need they need a magical run

02:50It's probably not going to happen

02:51But at 47 to 1 to make to get a good seed because then you can start

02:56If you if you're a hedger, you can start laying it off come sweet 16th time, right?

02:59and as long as I I like taking top 25 teams that are like off the beaten path like

03:05Texas tech is there right but

03:08Louisville 22 to 1 you're getting 22 dollars on a team. That's in the top 25. Yep, and has been throughout the season

03:14And acc is not valued as as strong as the big 10 and big 12 and sec

03:20I get that but you still have a team that's at the top of their conference with duke that could dominate at any given moment

03:26I'm fascinated by the good so I have a purdue ticket at 14 to 1

03:31I am

03:32I have it. I am not as emotionally not emotionally, but I I yeah, i'm not like

03:38I don't live and die by purdue games

03:40because

03:41I thought they had a chance to

03:43Surge in one direction and then ultimately they just

03:47You know fell apart that illinois loss was very damaging. I think last night because I I certainly don't want

03:53Because of how much I respect this year's one seeds. I don't want to be an eight seed

03:57I don't want to be a force. I want to be a five like I don't want to end up kind of in those paths

04:02Now to double talk myself

04:04I am fascinated by

04:07Gonzaga at 10 to 1

04:09from this end of it

04:11and

04:12So here here's what I will tell people right and you don't have to like ken pom, but the way that those

04:19Rankings are looked will mirror

04:22How the market is going to price these teams out at least a lot closer

04:27Gonzaga is eighth overall

04:29Metric wise overall, right, right?

04:32Like if we were to see this tournament solely now, which we obviously would not that'd be a two seed

04:37Now gonzaga is more so projected to end up in this eight nine spot

04:42I wonder if the zags

04:44end up

04:46Like a six point favorite joe in an eight nine game when typically those games are always picked, right?

04:52I'm, very interested if that if that is how that plays out potentially for

04:57Gonzaga I I don't see any world where I bet another final four ticket

05:02Before the bracket comes out if i'm even going to bet another one

05:05But gonzaga to me is so fascinating because their gap

05:09in

05:11You know efficiency rankings compared to where like say the ap would actually be places

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