Analyzing NCAA Tournament Odds for Top Championship Contenders

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00:00all right drs let's look at those national championship odds that the field of 64

00:05is officially set as we enter the first round on this thursday and a couple of changing numbers

00:10just by a few cents here and there from where things were on selection sunday either prior to

00:16the bracket being unveiled or certainly after it on sunday evening duke has seen its number

00:21shortened by about 30 40 cents now plus 280 nearly a dollar in front of florida who has seen probably

00:28the most positive movement in the last five six days after winning the sec tournament title in

00:34nashville auburn of course has moved back that plus 550 price houston on sunday night a seven

00:40to one number shaved that price by a buck at plus 600 then you get your drop off to alabama at 19

00:47to 1 we'll talk about that drop off we'll talk about that distinction but donnie let's start

00:51with those top four prices all of our one seeds in the ncaa tournament does every number for every

00:57team on the one line feel fitting to you it does like duke plus 280 doesn't feel fitting though

01:03and i'm not saying it should be plus 250 i'm not saying it should be four to one price but i love

01:07duke i actually have duke winning in my bracket but when you look all the way through like these

01:12top four seeds are going to be so dominant but i just look at that price point and say

01:16it's it's not just to get to the final four get to the final that's the win at all and i have

01:20florida getting to the final which equally might even be more dominant than duke when it's all

01:25said and done i don't agree with the price point for duke i do agree with the price point from

01:30duke being a favorite i just think it should be a little bit closer plus 320 plus 330 against

01:35florida's plus 360 because once again look at florida are we worried about injuries right now

01:40heading into the tournament to the best player nope how about auburn now we're not doing that

01:43johnny broom is fine houston no we're not worried duke at a plus 280 price we technically still

01:49don't know now granted we're going to watch and see as duke plays their first game and how healthy

01:53cooper flag is we're not expecting anything that say wow they really lied to us he's not ready

01:57till the round of 32 or even in sweet 16 or the elite eight we're expecting him to be great but

02:03also the chance of re-injury when you have an ankle injury is quite high at this point and also

02:08how effective can he be because you need cooper flag 100 to win a national championship because

02:15you got to be perfect in just about every game you play outside of round number one that's the

02:19question i have love duke think they win it ben but i just think that price point is still a little

02:23bit low plus 280 drs i did some of the math yesterday going portion by portion around the

02:28bracket region by region and looking at ken palm teams where they are rated according to kenneth

02:33pomeroy and how they fit into the bracket of course i do believe the selection committee takes

02:37that into account but they use their other analytics first and foremost like the net the

02:41web now wins above bubble to kind of determine where these teams are i think the east region

02:47is the easiest out there i think duke has the most favorable path of all of the one seeds it could

02:52lead to the idea duke is the national championship favorite the east region only has two ken palm

02:58teams in the top 10 the east region only has six ken palm teams in the top 25 that is with everybody

03:05else as you look around the midwest has seven top 25 teams both the south and the uh midwest it is

03:13has three top 10 teams in ken palm as well so i do believe duke's path through the tournament

03:20is favorable and donny as it goes to show there is also the idea that auburn is entering as the

03:27number one overall seed but not playing its best ball they have dropped three of their last four

03:32this is the longest price i can remember probably since early december on the tigers to win a

03:37national championship plus 550 really all year long it was duke and auburn neck and neck oftentimes

03:44auburn in front of the blue devils i don't want to say is there value but would you be willing

03:49to go in on an auburn price knowing where they stand in the south region oh sure i think it

03:54makes sense like i i like you have to pick one right it's not like hey guys fill out your bracket

03:58you get four teams to win a national championship we all go duke florida auburn and houston you set

04:03these two teams up or let's say two playing two right one two three and four and you're like all

04:07right either one of these teams once they get to the final can certainly beat each other and maybe

04:11you are getting a bonus but the joke seems to write itself it's like hey man look at all those

04:16teams the sec got in texas already lost man downgrade auburn right off the bat like did

04:20auburn get a bump last night of texas won by 10 points over xavier in that game like whoa

04:24sec is here to play i think it's a little bit of a long stretch to say we don't like auburn as much

04:30as we did let's just say three weeks ago why they played an unbelievably tough competition schedule

04:35and it's still going to be tough competition once you get in the march madness we understand that

04:39but all the pieces and the components of what you loved about auburn are still there rested and

04:44ready to go also getting through the sec you get an extra week off there you know you don't have

04:49that old grind of the sec tournament here where you get knocked out now you can reset re-evaluate

04:53and get back to business i don't mind the plus 550 price i really don't viable to win a national

04:57championship absolutely on the tigers

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