Optimisme di Balik Sentimen Peresmian Danantara

IDXchannel

Pemerintah meresmikan BPI Danantara pada Senin (24/2/2025).  Untuk tahap awal, Danantara diproyeksikan memiliki pendanaan USD20 miliar (sekitar Rp320 triliun). Presiden Prabowo optimistis, dana ini akan menjadi modal transformatif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia.

Transcript

00:00Thank you, Mr. Mirza, for joining us again on MarketBuzz.

00:08And here is the Spotlight or Headline that we summarized in the following graph.

00:12There is IHSK, which rose 2.5% in the past week,

00:17where the technology sector on Friday led the sectoral strength with a significant increase of 6.51%.

00:25And DCEI prepared 1 trillion rupiahs for the data center.

00:30The auto-reject stock for the past three days fell to around 90,000.

00:36Those are the two Spotlight markets or the main information that became the headline of MarketBuzz this time.

00:44Then, Mr. Mirza, we will look at some of the economic agendas first,

00:47before we get into the review of the number of capital market sentiment in the beginning of the week.

00:53There is Indonesian currency, IHK Inti Singapura, foreign capital planting,

00:58and IHK from the European Union, as well as FED Cicago activities.

01:08Agenda from MI10, Mr. Mirza, there is AMOR, Interim Cash Dividend Payment Date.

01:13Let's continue to the Asian stock market update in the beginning of the week.

01:18Is it the same as the US stock market that tends to profit-taking?

01:22Profit-taking is quite sharp in Nikkei, with a 1.67% gain,

01:27Sotheby's fell 0.08%,

01:30KOSPI South Korea fell 0.87%,

01:33Hang Seng Hong Kong fell 0.02%.

01:36All Asian stocks in the beginning of the week, based on the data we have,

01:40are moving in a negative direction.

01:50Mr. Mirza, the government plans to formalize the BPI on Monday, February 24, 2025 or today.

01:56For the initial stage, the budget is projected to have a funding of US$20 billion,

02:01or around Rp320 trillion.

02:04President Prabowo is optimistic that this fund will be a transformative capital

02:08for Indonesia's economic growth in the midst of an unstable Indonesian economy.

02:13Is Danantara a correct solution?

02:16What does Danantara look like in terms of financial planning?

02:19Here is the information.

02:26Daya Anegata Nusantara, or Danantara,

02:29is expected to become a BUMN superholding,

02:32which will later accommodate state-owned funds,

02:35to be invested in sustainable projects in various sectors,

02:39such as renewable energy, oil industry, advanced manufacturing and food production.

02:45The goal is to manage state investment funds, hundreds of trillions of rupiah.

02:50In fact, the management of these investment funds is expected to support Indonesia's economy in the future.

02:58Danantara will work on 15 to 20 strategic projects

03:02to achieve Indonesia's economic growth target of 8% in the next five years.

03:08In the midst of an unstable Indonesian economy,

03:11is Danantara a correct solution?

03:14What does Danantara look like in terms of financial planning?

03:18Here is the information.

03:21Danantara has many functions,

03:24and there are several functions,

03:26so it will be very complex,

03:28so the risk that may arise is the risk of not doing well,

03:32or the risk of crime,

03:34the risk of corruption,

03:36it can also happen.

03:37Why?

03:38Because those who can get in there,

03:40maybe they can only be tortured,

03:42they can only go to the police.

03:44So there are also risks,

03:45the risk of committing a crime like that.

03:47The third possibility is

03:49that if, for example,

03:52the funds or dividends from BUMN managed by Danantara are not managed well,

03:58in the end, the BUMN involved,

04:01yes, it does not become richer.

04:03Why?

04:04Because the hope of this BUMN is,

04:05I put money in Danantara,

04:07the money can grow.

04:08Well, the money doesn't grow.

04:09So this BUMN can't grow either.

04:12So there is a direct risk,

04:14there is a direct risk.

04:20So how can the sentiment of Danantara's presence

04:23have a significant impact on the stock market and the red flag emissions?

04:30Various sources, IDX Channel.

04:37Yes, waiting for the official announcement of Danantara today.

04:40So how far can the presence of Danantara

04:42give optimism to the capital market?

04:46To answer this question,

04:47Mr. Hans Kui, the capital market officer,

04:49has joined us via video conference.

04:51Good morning, Mr. Hans.

04:53Yes, good morning, ma'am.

04:54Thank you very much for your time this morning.

04:56Are you healthy, sir?

04:57Yes, I'm healthy.

04:58Thank you, sir.

04:59Waiting for the official announcement of Danantara.

05:01Finally, it will be official.

05:02The plan this morning,

05:0410 o'clock, Western Indonesia time,

05:06there are many pros,

05:08then also contras,

05:09many who anticipate the risk.

05:11But from Mr. Hans first,

05:13seeing Danantara itself

05:15after being joined and finally will be official,

05:18what is your optimism, sir?

05:21Yes, Danantara should actually be positive

05:24for the Indonesian economy and the capital market.

05:27Because if we look at it,

05:30indeed, if we look at it,

05:32a few years ago,

05:35our APBN was a bit burdened

05:37with a fairly large debt pool.

05:40Then there was a bit of a hindrance

05:42in the ability to buy the people in the lower middle class.

05:45Therefore, to push for an 8% economic growth,

05:49one of the strategies is through Danantara.

05:52So Danantara is expected

05:54to be able to attract larger investments into Indonesia,

05:58rolling up national strategic projects

06:01which of course are profit-oriented,

06:04so as to boost Indonesia's economic growth.

06:06And of course, if we look at it,

06:08this should be positive

06:10for the BUMN that is joined below,

06:13so that there is synergy in the BUMN.

06:17Okay, so Mr. Hans is quite optimistic

06:19with the presence of Danantara, right?

06:22That's right.

06:23Is there any risk if the financial market observers,

06:28financial administrators,

06:30say that there is a risk?

06:32For example, there is a risk of corruption,

06:36misuse, and so on.

06:38If you are a financial market observer,

06:40is there a risk that you should anticipate?

06:45Yes, of course there is always a risk in the investment process.

06:50But we also hope that Danantara is managed professionally.

06:56The risk is of course if there is a lot of intervention,

06:59from politics, from interests

07:02that are actually not for the benefit of Indonesia,

07:06but for the people of Indonesia,

07:07of course it will be a personal risk.

07:10Because if we look at it,

07:12there is One Malaysia Development Board,

07:15which is also One MDB,

07:17which also experienced a failure.

07:19Now, if we look at it now,

07:22there is actually a negative sentiment

07:24towards the BUMN that joined Danantara.

07:26But actually it's not very basic.

07:29Because first, if we look at it,

07:32as mentioned earlier,

07:33if the dividend that was withdrawn from the BUMN

07:36entered Danantara to be managed,

07:39the dividend has been sent to APBN.

07:43At the moment, it is just transferred to Danantara.

07:47So it doesn't interfere with the energy of the BUMN at all.

07:51But if the investment is done by Danantara,

07:55many will fail later,

07:56it can certainly be a risk.

07:58It means that it is trapped in a big debt,

08:01even though the investment failed.

08:03But of course, that's not what we expect.

08:05Because we have also seen many successes,

08:09such as Temasek,

08:10Hasana from Malaysia is also successful,

08:12and many from Ireland are also successful.

08:15That's what we want to exemplify.

08:17So that it becomes a growth engine,

08:20growing leverage for Indonesia's economy.

08:24I will describe it simply like this.

08:28So we have a lot of natural resources.

08:31Our natural resources, if we sell them in a raw form,

08:35the added value is low.

08:37This is what makes us a country that is difficult to become a developed country.

08:41We need hillarization.

08:43But hillarization requires a very large investment.

08:47If you rely on private sector and banks,

08:50this is a bit difficult.

08:52Because if we have a 100 trillion project there,

08:55the company must have an investment of 20-30 trillion

08:59to roll it out before getting funding from the bank.

09:02Not to mention that the bank is a bit at risk of funding the project.

09:06This is what must be taken by Danantara in this matter.

09:10He can invite foreign investors in with large assets.

09:15That certainly causes him to have the ability

09:19to invest in large-scale projects,

09:23where hillarization gives added value to the economy,

09:27pushes our export value up,

09:29increases our deficit,

09:31and this is what will become our economic growth engine in the future.

09:35Okay, so hillarization does require large capital or large funds,

09:40and investors will be interested when they see these large assets

09:46become one through Danantara, right?

09:50Yes, that's one of them.

09:52So there are many things.

09:54Let me give you another example.

09:56If there is a BUMN business that is linked to Danantara,

10:01let's take the example of the investment grade A.

10:06Danantara, because of the size of the assets it has,

10:08maybe it can become AAA,

10:10so the cost of fund is cheaper.

10:12This can be done.

10:14The person who does the funding is at the top.

10:18Then the funds are included in the form of participation,

10:22then the child returns it in the form of paying dividends.

10:26This will reduce the cost of fund,

10:28so it will certainly give leverage to the economy.

10:32Those are some things that certainly give added value.

10:35Then there are several national strategic projects

10:38that feel very important to Indonesia.

10:41The first is energy conservation,

10:43and the second is food preservation.

10:45So now the world is full of uncertainties,

10:48trade war is happening,

10:50we have to have food preservation.

10:52So we can't just rely on imports.

10:55This is also very important.

10:57Then energy conservation.

10:59Energy is just renewed,

11:01EBT needs a very large investment.

11:03Okay, so priority programs,

11:05how to achieve economic growth

11:08which is also quite significant,

11:11can be boosted through the presence of interests.

11:14Is that right, sir?

11:16But there is another polemic, sir.

11:18It cannot be audited by BPK and KPK.

11:21How do you see interests,

11:23can sharpen the internal audit later?

11:26Yes, like this.

11:28We have to realize that our BUMN

11:31is currently led by the best daughters of the Indonesian nation.

11:35But all this time,

11:37BUMN losses are often directed as state losses.

11:40BPK enters, KPK enters.

11:43Even though sometimes it's a business decision.

11:45And business decisions are not always right.

11:48It doesn't always work.

11:50So if it always works,

11:52maybe we need a godly level.

11:56When it fails,

11:59of course the people who led it will be very conservative.

12:03The result will be limited.

12:06So they will play safe.

12:08But those who are naughty will still be naughty.

12:10The right people will play safe there.

12:13This is what makes it not work well.

12:16The new BUMN laws

12:18cause them to be audited.

12:21But by the public auditor.

12:23We have a big auditor in Indonesia

12:27whose reputation is also good.

12:29So now they will do business

12:32in a business way.

12:35No longer related to state losses.

12:39This is certainly an additional value

12:42for BUMN itself.

12:44This is an important aspect.

12:46So we have to see

12:48actually

12:50with these new laws,

12:53BUMN can run a business professionally.

12:57And it is hoped that it will not be affected

13:00by the concerns,

13:03and threats

13:06that if it loses, it will be a loss for the country.

13:10To increase the reputation of the interstate,

13:13of course the BUMN that is included in it

13:15must use a big four auditor.

13:18Secondly, if possible,

13:20all the BUMNs that are included in the interstate

13:22are encouraged to go public.

13:24Because companies that have gone public

13:26have an increased reputation and monitoring.

13:29If we look at it, companies that go public

13:31are monitored first by the OJK,

13:33the stock exchange,

13:34then the public,

13:36analysts, reporters.

13:38That is much better.

13:41It means that there is a lot of monitoring.

13:44Later, KPK, BPK can also enter

13:47when approved by the DPR.

13:49It means that there is an indication

13:52that shows that this is a fraud.

13:55Then they enter.

13:56But if it's a business decision,

13:58don't criminalize it.

13:59Because sometimes,

14:01if it's a business decision,

14:02play it safe.

14:04Instead, it makes it not too optimal.

14:07Like that, Mr. Hans.

14:08An interesting insight from Mr. Hans.

14:11Why is it better not to be audited by BPK or KPK?

14:16Okay, Mr. Hans.

14:18So, how do you see the response

14:20from a number of BUMN emissions

14:23that have landed in the Indonesian stock exchange

14:24that will be merged with Danantara?

14:26Maybe among them are BUMN victims

14:28and also those who are targeted by MindID.

14:33Yes.

14:34Actually, the event is mixed.

14:36Indeed, there was news,

14:38there was a call to withdraw funds from BUMN.

14:42But that's actually not the basis.

14:44As I said earlier,

14:46Danantara does not reduce the energy

14:49from BUMN or the BUMN companies

14:51that are merged in it.

14:53It even increases its value.

14:55So, that's not the basis.

14:57The correction that happens in the stock market

14:59is more affected by Donald Trump's policy.

15:02Then, some uncertainties that happen globally.

15:07And one of the factors that is quite important

15:09is that there is a fund rotation.

15:11So, we see a deep-seated success.

15:14Then, Xi Jinping made a meeting

15:17with the top business technologists in China.

15:20There was a fund switching back to China.

15:23And one of them came out of the emerging market

15:26like in Indonesia.

15:27Yesterday, large technology companies in America

15:31were all corrected.

15:32Because they also switched back to China

15:35because it was considered with a smaller investment.

15:38It turns out that China is more attractive

15:40and its valuation is attractive.

15:42This also explains why the DCEI

15:45continued to rise for three consecutive days

15:47because it is a data center

15:49that is a group of technology development.

15:55There is Internet of Things, Big Data,

15:59Data Center, and AI.

16:01And these are some sectors that tend to be positive.

16:04So, this sentiment is mixed with other factors.

16:09So, the correction is more because of other factors.

16:12Okay.

16:13So, what is your recommendation

16:16based on the sentiment that we have discussed?

16:19Is the DCEI that has reached almost 90%

16:22becoming the most expensive nominal stock

16:24in Indonesia's stock market

16:26is also worthy of the title of the best stock?

16:28Or are you more attracted to other stocks?

16:30Stay with us, Pemirsa, only on MarketBas.

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