How Has the Government's Economic Policy Fared in One Year? Economic Analyst Shahbaz Rana

ARY NEWS

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00:00The Suda government has been in power for almost a year now.

00:03During this time, Pakistan's biggest political challenge has been the economy.

00:08On the front of the economy, what performance has the government shown in a year?

00:12Because the claims are obvious, they are very big, as is the case with every government.

00:16Mr. Shibaz says, Mr. Mareeb Nawaz says, how they have supported this sinking ship.

00:22And even the World Bank delegation has praised the economic signs. Listen to this.

00:28The nine directors of the World Bank delegation have praised Pakistan's economic development

00:35and macroeconomic stability.

00:40After a 7-8 year ill economy, God has shown His grace.

00:44In the last year, there has been an improvement in Pakistan's economy.

00:48Whatever the media and the opposition say,

00:51everyone understands that Pakistan is in a take-off position.

00:54Whatever the media and the opposition say, it doesn't matter.

01:01But maybe it does matter a little because of what the managers of the old economy of PMLN say.

01:08Because whether it is Mr. Khan Abbasi or Mr. Mifta Ismail,

01:11they are not politically with PMLN.

01:14But how are they rating their current economic measures?

01:18Listen to this.

01:19Low inflation doesn't mean low inflation.

01:23There is a decrease in the rate of inflation.

01:26And that decrease is due to the world's commodity prices,

01:29not due to any policy of this government.

01:31Oil prices have decreased in the world due to low inflation.

01:34The government has not taken a single step to reduce inflation in Pakistan.

01:38In the last three years, our GDP growth is 1.5% less than the growth of population.

01:45In fact, it is 2% less.

01:46So every Pakistani has become 2-2.5% poor in the last three years.

01:51We have seen today that the resident chief, Mr. Mahir Banji,

01:56who has given an interview to Mr. Mehta Bhaidar,

01:58he is the one who rates the pressure of loans on Pakistan.

02:04Mr. Shahbaz Rana is with us in the program.

02:07Thank you very much, Shahbaz, for joining us.

02:09Let's ask the question in a simple way.

02:13The government is saying that the media is also wrong.

02:16The opposition is also wrong.

02:18The government is saying that the economy has improved.

02:21If we arrange a report card for the government's economic policies in a year,

02:26how will that report card be?

02:31Thank you very much.

02:33The truth is being said on both sides.

02:37But the complete truth is not being said on both sides.

02:39This is a fact.

02:41A year and a half ago, when there was talk of Pakistan's Diwali,

02:45when you start this journey from June 2023,

02:48in which the PDM government also signed an INF program,

02:52which was then completed by the caretakers.

02:54When Shahbaz Shahbaz became the Prime Minister for the second time,

02:57a new program had to be taken at that time.

02:59The full payment of loans was at the top.

03:02When the INF program was found, the risk of defaulting was averted.

03:07If you can say one economic success of this government,

03:12and the credit goes to them that they did not allow Diwali in Pakistan.

03:16However, they brought the most difficult, unacceptable and extremely strict budget.

03:22In any case, they saved Pakistan from Diwali.

03:25There are so many wrong things in that budget that you will have to reverse in the future.

03:30The second thing that Chief Minister Maria Nawaz Sharif said,

03:35that Pakistan has come to the stage of taking off.

03:37God forbid, don't talk about this on this stage.

03:40We are still going through the phase of economic stabilization,

03:44and we have to go through it now.

03:46At this stage, the economy does not need to grow by 5-6%.

03:52We cannot afford it.

03:54What is the reason for this?

03:55The reason is that whenever there has been growth in the past in Pakistan,

03:58whether it was the last year of PMLN in 2018,

04:01in which there was a growth of about 2% in 6 cities,

04:05whether it was the last year of PTI in which there was a growth of 6%,

04:08both these growth rates came from foreign and domestic loans,

04:12by carrying out progressive projects, by opening imports.

04:16Today, if you take only two indicators that are printed by this government,

04:21if you put those indicators in front of you,

04:23then you will say that don't talk about taking off,

04:25work with your head down.

04:26Indicator number one,

04:28that in the last two months, the government has relaxed imports to Dharamdat,

04:33$5.5 billion per month.

04:35As soon as the imports went in January,

04:37your current account loss was $420 million.

04:40This means that the pressure has come back to its place.

04:42The second thing, two days ago,

04:45the Pakistani Bureau of Statistics,

04:47which is the institution of government statistics,

04:50the big industries of Pakistan,

04:52where taxes are collected from,

04:54where jobs are created,

04:56in large-scale manufacturing,

04:58PBS has told us that

05:00in the first six months of this financial year,

05:02negative 1.9% growth,

05:04and only in the month of December,

05:06negative 3.7% growth.

05:09So yes, you have succeeded.

05:11We did not go bankrupt.

05:13It was a difficult decision.

05:14It was mostly on the salary class, on the industries.

05:16But if you say that we have stabilized the economy of Pakistan,

05:19if we have to take off, then we will do it now.

05:21What grade will you give?

05:22What grade will you give?

05:23If we simplify it completely.

05:26Madam PM,

05:27I think it would be appropriate to give a grade.

05:29But I would not go beyond 5.

05:31Okay, beyond 5.

05:32Because it is a very early stage.

05:34It is much below 5.

05:36Not 5 even, much below 5.

05:38But it is the first year.

05:39It took time to stabilize things.

05:41I did a little caretaker work.

05:43If we do not grade them now,

05:44it is better that they come under pressure.

05:46Okay, fine.

05:47What are the challenges for the coming year?

05:49Three big challenges are in front of the government.

05:52Because now they have entered the next year.

05:54What will be those three big challenges?

05:57Look, the biggest challenge that the government will have to face,

06:00and that process has just started,

06:02is that the government will be under pressure

06:04to grow the economy of Pakistan,

06:06to run 5-6 percent.

06:08The government's job is to tolerate this pressure.

06:11The second pressure on the government will be

06:14that you have to relax the real estate sector,

06:18which is a speculative sector.

06:21The government has tightened it,

06:22and the IMF also wants to tighten it.

06:24The government should not relax it.

06:26It is speculative.

06:27You must facilitate the construction sector.

06:30You should not facilitate the purchase and sale of plots.

06:33Okay.

06:34The third important challenge,

06:36apart from these things,

06:37is that Dharamdad has its own problems.

06:41You have to focus a lot on Dharamdad.

06:44Right.

06:45This is where Pakistan will benefit.

06:47Whatever policies they have to adopt,

06:49should be made to sell to Dharamdad.

06:51Even if they want to take foreign investment,

06:54they should take it only in those sectors

06:56from where they can get industry in Pakistan

06:58and export their products.

07:00They should not come to Pakistan

07:02in the name of foreign investment.

07:04There should be a chicken shop here.

07:06They should promote consumption

07:08and from there,

07:09the royalties and profits

07:10should start going out of the country.

07:11Right.

07:12We should not get dollars in Pakistan.

07:13These are their big challenges.

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