Analyzing Mahomes's Playoff Performance and Fantasy Impact

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00:00Let's start off with Mahomes' passing yards,

00:03which is set at 251 and a half.

00:06A lot of experience at the Super Bowl.

00:07Generally, Joe, Mahomes has gone under this number

00:10for a lot of the regular season,

00:12but this is not the regular season.

00:13This is the playoffs.

00:14In fact, on our fantasy shows, we got to about,

00:18I'm sure you did with Matt and George and I too,

00:20we got to about week three and it was like,

00:22do you start Mahomes anymore in fantasy?

00:24Then in week six, it was like,

00:25I'm not starting Mahomes in fantasy anymore.

00:29If he has over 250 yards,

00:30I think the Chiefs are going to win this game.

00:33Here's the problem.

00:34I think you can have under and they can still win.

00:36And to me, that's why this is a stay away.

00:38I think this 251 is a really good number.

00:40I don't think it portends one way to the other,

00:43which way you think this game is going to go.

00:45Cause I could see a world where he's at 240 something

00:47and they win this game easily,

00:48or if he's at 270 something

00:49and they lose this game potentially.

00:50So to me, this specific one, when it comes to Mahomes,

00:53I'm out on the passing.

00:54I do like some Mahomes props here though individually,

00:58but this one's not it for me.

00:59George, you want to go over

01:00or under the 251 and a half for him?

01:03I mean, as I've said several times,

01:05I have a lot of Mahomes props.

01:07I think I have six props involving Mahomes directly here.

01:10Attempts, completions, throwing an interception,

01:11getting sacked.

01:13I have a small play on the over.

01:15I do not love it.

01:16All right.

01:17For many of the reasons Joe mentioned here,

01:19but because I don't think they're going to be able

01:21to run the ball.

01:21I think he's going to drop the ball.

01:22I think he's going to drop back 40 plus times.

01:24I don't think he has a choice here.

01:26And that, therefore, he should be able to make this,

01:29but they're a team that does not throw large.

01:31I mean, they don't throw deep into the secondary.

01:32They throw short passes.

01:34What Mahomes has done all season long,

01:35especially since Rice has been out.

01:37And I think that continues today.

01:38So I think if he gets, I think the number's right.

01:41To get this, he's not going to crush.

01:43He'll get 262, something like that.

01:45I also think they'll be trailing in the second half.

01:47So he's got to throw the ball more here.

01:49So I do have the over, but it's a small play.

01:51Out of all my Mahomes props,

01:53this is one of my least favorite.

01:55Yeah, pass for me on this.

01:56Now, as far as the passing touchdowns are concerned,

02:00you are minus 165 on the over

02:04one and a half passing touchdowns.

02:06If Mahomes throws less than two touchdowns,

02:08your $100 bet gets you 135.

02:11George, we'll switch it up and start with you here.

02:15So, I mean, your lean is toward Philadelphia in this game.

02:20So is this a prop for you where you have

02:22under one and a half passing touchdowns, plus 135?

02:26I didn't play it.

02:27All right.

02:28I don't, I said, I think Casey scores three at most.

02:31I think I want Mahomes to run one in.

02:33All right.

02:34That's where the big money is,

02:35where Joe and I get a four to one here.

02:36So that's what I'm really hoping for there.

02:38It wouldn't, as much as I don't think Pacheco and Hunt

02:41are going to do very well,

02:41it wouldn't shock me if Hunt runs one as well.

02:43We saw that last week versus Buffalo here.

02:45I just don't, I don't think they score enough here

02:47where it's worth the minus 165.

02:50All right.

02:51I don't like the price.

02:51It's a little better.

02:52I might think about it here,

02:53but this is not one of my Mahomes props.

02:57Yeah.

02:58This is the juice.

02:59I mean, at the end of the day,

02:59it's almost minus 170 in some spots here

03:01for Patrick Mahomes on the over one and a half passing.

03:04So the value is on the under, the variance is too much.

03:08Patrick Mahomes, again,

03:09I think the best way to invest in him

03:11is actually with the legs today.

03:12I mentioned that rushing prop for him

03:14to the anytime touchdown plus 400, that's a great return.

03:17And I think the yardage is going to come up again.

03:18I know we're going to talk about that in a second,

03:20but I keep talking about like,

03:22we're talking about X's and O's here

03:22and talking about what this game plays out to be.

03:25And I keep coming back to the same thing

03:26over and over and over again.

03:28And I just think it's logical where pressure up front,

03:31corners locking down.

03:32What do you have to do?

03:34You got to get out in space and make things happen.

03:36Now, Patrick Mahomes is also one of the best,

03:38I think, improvisers that we've ever seen in the NFL,

03:41not just in terms of the way he throws the football times,

03:43but getting out there flush from the pocket and making plays.

03:46And that's, what's dangerous about the yardage.

03:48He could get out of the pocket and run.

03:50Like I think he's going to.

03:52He could also get out of the pocket,

03:53find some open Xavier Worthy,

03:55find some open Hollywood Brown,

03:56which is a wrinkle in this offense.

03:58We don't have a lot of experience with,

03:59which is another variable to keep

04:01really close attention on today.

04:02Like, is Hollywood Brown an impact player in this game?

04:05Probably not.

04:06But at the end of the day,

04:07if we all looked up and said that was the guy

04:08that actually led the Chiefs in receiving yards,

04:10would it really shock any of us?

04:13Let's, Luke, let's go over to those rushing yards,

04:16by the way, from Mahomes, as Joe alluded to here.

04:18I want to touch on this real quick.

04:1929 and a half here is the number,

04:22at minus 110 on both sides, by the way.

04:24And Joe, that is, to me, maybe more of the determiner

04:29as to how the Chiefs end up doing,

04:30because it does feel like when Mahomes has a big run,

04:34whether it's down the sidelines,

04:35going out of bounds, going in the end zone,

04:37that's like the signature moment of every Chiefs game.

04:40Isn't it?

04:41The shock that the Mahomes from three years ago,

04:44who used to run all the time, is now picking his spots,

04:48but it's usually a long run.

04:50So not only do I maybe lean toward

04:53the over of 29 and a half here,

04:55his longest rush to me, too,

04:57would be something to take a look at.

04:59Yeah, it is.

05:00And what's interesting, too,

05:01is I locked this in at the 29 and a half,

05:02and some folks already have it at 31.

05:04I do like Mahomes to throw a pick, though, too.

05:07That is one thing that he has done sometimes.

05:09Sometimes he does get a little fast and loose

05:10with the football, try to do too much.

05:13He has five picks in the Super Bowls he's played,

05:15so it's not impossible there.

05:16So you're getting even money on that.

05:17But to me, I keep coming back to this one

05:19and the fact that it was 29 and moved up to 31

05:21tells me that a lot of people are starting to see it

05:23the same way I am,

05:24which is that we're looking at Mahomes

05:25to take off, run, make plays.

05:27If you're in third and long, guess what?

05:29Patrick Mahomes rushing for 15 yards is not absurd.

05:32And if he gets one of those,

05:33just one of those kind of moments,

05:35he's already halfway there, Craig.

05:37And then, of course, if you have an overtime game,

05:38because it's a closed game, guess what?

05:40That's more volume for Mahomes

05:41with the football in his hands.

05:42So to me, this is one I like a lot.

05:44George, when you're looking at Mahomes rushing totals,

05:47where I stand, where do you stand?

05:49Yeah, I'm on the over as well.

05:51Now, this is where variance comes in, by the way.

05:53You bet you've seen some books at 31 and a half.

05:55I got it at 28 and a half.

05:56I was one of the first props I took here.

05:59Right now, it's at 27 and a half on the New York book.

06:02I'm actually thinking about doubling down on it,

06:04taking it again, then it went down a yard.

06:05I'm shocked it went down a yard.

06:07Once again, I think he's gonna drop back 40 times.

06:10The pass rush is going to be there for Philadelphia.

06:12He's going to have to take off sometimes.

06:14He's going to feel the need.

06:15I got to move the chains here.

06:17No one's open.

06:18I got to move the chains.

06:19I think he'll get as long as Royal Rush as well.

06:21So yes, I'm all over this.

06:22And like I said, I'm thinking about doubling down here,

06:24taking the over 27 and a half.

06:26It's the first time I've looked at it today,

06:27and I can't believe it actually went down a yard.

06:30It was at 29.

06:31It's actually gone down two yards

06:32from what it was last night.

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