AFC Championship Game Props: Bills vs Chiefs Showdown

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00:00When you look at the numbers for that AFC Championship game in Arrowhead,

00:04it is basically a pick them about 34 cents of difference on the money line,

00:08and a total of 47 and a half. So you see those numbers in Buffalo trying to exercise the demon

00:14of their playoff nemesis being the Chiefs at this time of year. How do you expect the game to look

00:20if the Bills are hunting that upset? Oh, I'm feeling like a 2320 kind of game 2423. I think

00:28we're gonna be super close to the number. You know, a 2320 final could be a Mahomes drive that

00:35leads them to kicking a field goal to win the game and break the tide. Ultimately, like, how do the

00:39Bills prevent that? Because we always have this conversation about like, oh, our team's playing

00:44to win, are they playing not to lose? Like, the Bills don't want to put the ball in Mahomes hands

00:48as often as possible. And how do you do that? I honestly think it's through the running game.

00:53And, you know, Josh Allen was okay last week. Let's just call it what it was. So I think the

00:57three-headed backfield that they have with Cook, Johnson, and Ray Davis for the Bills, I think

01:02they're all going to see a good amount of work. So I'm not sure I'd love Cook to have a massive

01:07game on the ground. Actually, I think it's going to be a very balanced backfield. And keeping the

01:10ball out of Mahomes' hand late is how the Bills will come away with the victory. That's if they,

01:14I don't have a strong take either side. Anyone who says that they have a strong take either side

01:17is lying to themselves and lying to you guys. I think we're in for a one possession game,

01:21and it's going to be determined in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter. And if the

01:24Bills were to come away with the win, it's keeping the ball out of Mahomes' hands with

01:28the running game. Exactly. Better be taking knees at the end of the football game, not giving 16

01:33seconds or so back over to the Chiefs to try to beat you or send you into overtime. Let's take a

01:38look at that quarterback matchup. None really better. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen squared up

01:43here. The totals coming in on Patrick Mahomes at 249 and a half, and Josh Allen at 230 and a half

01:49for his passing yards. And then the touchdown props, wildly different here. To throw two

01:52touchdowns for Mahomes. That's a minus 154 price for Josh Allen. It's plus 136. How are we playing

01:58the quarterbacks on Sunday, Tom? I think it's reasonable to play Mahomes under 36 and a half

02:04passing attempts. I specifically like that. I also don't mind Mahomes over on the rushing as

02:08he apparently rushes every single playoff game he's ever been in constantly scrambling and getting

02:13those yards. Allen is tough. It is really tough considering, you know, last week's failings get

02:18to 150 combined yards. I don't know how we look to 230 passing yards alone. And also, if you were

02:24to get 230 passing yards, probably means that they're playing from behind. And at that point,

02:29the Chiefs money line would probably be the best bet. If he has to push for 250 passing yards,

02:34things probably didn't go the way the Bills would want things to go. Like this, the script got out

02:38of control. And we're looking back at that overtime game they had a couple of years ago, where it's

02:42like 40 to 35, whatever the final score was for that thing where they're both throwing three or

02:46four touchdowns. I don't think the Bills want to have Josh Allen throwing the ball for 250 yards.

02:51It does not say that he can't do it. I just don't think that's the game plan for this week.