Trump and Petro are a "match made in heaven" for confrontation in Colombia, analyst says

FRANCE 24 English

Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00This is Apropos.

00:04The US and Colombia appear to have pulled back from the brink of a trade war after the

00:09White House said the South American nation had agreed to accept military aircraft carrying

00:14deported migrants.

00:16President Donald Trump had threatened tariffs and sanctions on Colombia to punish it for

00:21earlier refusing to accept flights carrying deportees as part of his sweeping immigration

00:26crackdown.

00:27Matthew Mary Karasche has the story.

00:32After a tit-for-tat of tariff threats, an escalating row between the United States and

00:36Colombia over the repatriation of illegal migrants seems to have abated.

00:42On Sunday, Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to allow two military deportation

00:47flights to land, accusing the United States of treating migrants like criminals.

00:52US President Donald Trump quickly responded, imposing 25 percent tariffs on all Colombian

00:58goods coming into the US, a travel ban on Colombian officials and financial sanctions.

01:04Not to be outdone, Petro said he would also impose a 25 percent tariff on American goods.

01:10Nonetheless, just hours later, both sides said the impasse had subsided.

01:19We will continue to receive Colombians who return as deportees, guaranteeing them dignified

01:25conditions as citizens with rights.

01:32On Thursday, Mexico also refused to let a US military aircraft land with migrants.

01:37In the past, Trump has threatened Mexico with 25 percent tariffs to force further action

01:43against illegal migrants and fentanyl flowing into the US.

01:47On Friday, 265 migrants deported from the United States landed in Guatemala.

01:53And on Saturday, about 80 others arrived in Brazil, in conditions the local government

01:58described as degrading.

02:01The complaints from the people who arrived were very serious.

02:06We had families, children, children with autism or with some type of disability who went through

02:13very serious situations.

02:17Trump began his second term with a flurry of executive actions aimed at toughening entry

02:22into the United States.

02:24On his first day in office, he signed orders declaring a national emergency at the southern

02:29US border and announced the deployment of more troops to the area.

02:34More on this story, let's bring in Sergio Guzman, director of political consultancy

02:38firm Columbia Risk Analysis.

02:40Thank you so much, Sergio, for being with us this evening.

02:44Before coming on air, it remained unclear whether the Colombian president has relinquished

02:49all of his demands.

02:50Bogota is saying it has sent its own planes to the US to bring home deportees.

02:56So is this row actually over?

02:59Well, maybe it's the first round in a much more prolonged confrontation between Washington

03:05and Colombia under President Trump and Gustavo Petro.

03:10These are two presidents with very short tempers and two presidents that are ready

03:14to face off people that are confronted.

03:18Petro, on the one hand, wants to come off as the leader of the south, of the global

03:24south trying to face a North American sort of a more eager and agitated president.

03:32And President Trump wants to make Colombia an example for any other government that crosses

03:37him.

03:39A match made in heaven, if you will, for the perfect storm to happen in Colombia these

03:44days.

03:45And you've pointed out that Petro, he's previously and quite regularly accepted deportation flights.

03:51So what specifically was he objecting to this time?

03:54Was the fact that these migrants were being put into handcuffs and being chained effectively?

03:59Is that specifically what his concerns were here?

04:03We don't think so, because in the past, other deportation flights have happened under the

04:07same conditions.

04:09The only difference is that when those happened under a Democratic president, Joe Biden, Petro

04:14didn't much as bat an eye to what was happening.

04:17But now with Donald Trump in office, Petro saw it as an opportunity for confrontation.

04:23In fact, Petro at three in the morning had tweeted that we should welcome the migrants

04:28with open arms and roses at the airport.

04:31And then 30 minutes later, he changed his mind and announced mid-flights that the flights

04:35were no longer welcome to land on Colombian soil.

04:38So yes, this was a huge about face from Gustavo Petro, one that we Colombians were very used

04:44to.

04:45But also the response by US President Trump seemed to be a bit disproportionate on our

04:50end, mostly to make an example out of Petro, but also to be a show of force to what Trump

04:56is willing to do to other countries.

04:58And how critical has Petro been of US policy previously under former presidents?

05:04Well, Petro has, you know, invoked the global South, the fight against slavery.

05:10He very famously broke off relationships with Israel that is a close ally to the United

05:15States.

05:16And he's also announced an intention and interest in joining the Chinese Belt and Road initiatives

05:21and the BRICS initiative.

05:23And so in that sense, it seems that Colombia is posed to diversify its set of alliances

05:29on tethering itself from the United States as our main trading partner and as our main

05:34military partner.

05:35However, that will take months and the damage has already been done.

05:39Yeah, because what kind of impact is this likely to have more widely on US relations,

05:44not just with Colombia, but with some of its neighbours in Latin America?

05:49I think all neighbours in Latin America are going to look at the US as a less than firm

05:55ally, looking at the US commitment to their countries in relation to how strong they are

06:00on the issues that are of interest to Trump, but not really a diverse relationship that's

06:05based on mutual interests and shared values.

06:08In that sense, some of the projects involving drug trafficking, the environment, the diversity

06:16of our people, culture, will very certainly be put under the radar for Trump to eliminate.

06:22And do you think it might push some of those countries closer towards the likes of China,

06:26Russia, India, the EU?

06:30It could potentially, but you also don't see many of these countries stepping out in support

06:36of Colombia or of other countries for that matter.

06:39Look at Denmark.

06:40It's not clear that a lot of countries have also supported Denmark in their claims for

06:44fear of retaliation by the United States.

06:48And so, although Petro tried to be the first president to resist Donald Trump's efforts,

06:55what he's essentially done is the opposite.

06:57He's emboldened Donald Trump to use the same tactic over and over again against governments

07:02that he views as opponents or governments that he views as less than constructive to

07:07implement some of his foreign policy objectives.

07:09Well, bearing in mind that fear of retaliation, how can countries like Colombia better demonstrate

07:16their opposition to Donald Trump's policies when it comes to immigration specifically?

07:22We think that working through multilateral and intergovernmental organisations to address

07:28this issue is an important way.

07:31Obviously, for the United States dealing on a one-on-one basis, threatening with individual

07:38tariffs and things like that is going to be a preferred option.

07:41But if countries round together and show strength, then this might essentially bring

07:46Donald Trump to the table.

07:47The problem is this was what happened during the first Donald Trump administration.

07:52Now Donald Trump seems to have a better grasp of how government works, of how multilateral

07:57organisations work and is much more willing to put his thumb down.

08:01And how important is American trade for Colombia?

08:04How much does it rely on access to the US market, for example?

08:09Well, the US is Colombia's principal trade partner.

08:13Around 26% of our exports go to the United States, accounting for over $13 billion in

08:19inter-annual trade.

08:21Moreover, we receive at least $11 billion in remittances from Colombians working in

08:26the United States annually.

08:28And so cutting that will be a significant blow to Colombia's GDP, while the country

08:35will not be able to fill that vacuum or that gap in the short term.

08:40And Sergio, looking ahead then to the next four years, how do you think Donald Trump's

08:44presidency is going to impact Colombia?

08:48Your consultancy firm, it said that the two leaders hold essentially opposite policy positions

08:54on nearly every issue, making it unlikely that they're going to be able to find common

08:59ground anywhere.

09:00So what can actually be done to try and find some of that common ground or to move various

09:04issues forward, like immigration?

09:07Well, the problem that this has created is not only has Colombia become a central issue

09:13to Donald Trump's day-to-day, the first week of his administration, but he's always going

09:18to hold sort of a personal grudge to Colombia and to Petro for what has happened this week.

09:25This is going to make it very difficult for work happening in the bottom rung of the ladder

09:31at the ambassadorial level, at the ministerial level, at the interagency, police, intelligence,

09:38judicial collaboration.

09:39All of these issues are going to be much harder to work in between Colombia and the United

09:45States.

09:46So all aspects of the relationship are now being put in check.

09:49But let's not forget, in the middle of this, there's hundreds of thousands of people involved,

09:57hundreds of thousands of migrants, of people who have been displaced, of victims that live

10:01in the United States and are now in a very, very uncertain situation about their repatriation

10:07and the circumstances that's going to happen.

10:10And then after Colombia, there's a reason why those people left Colombia to begin with.

10:15It's unclear if many of those people are going to be safe.

10:18It's unclear if many of those people are going to have an economic livelihood waiting for

10:21them once they are here.

10:23So evidently, this will bring about a lot of human sorrow and suffering as well.

10:28And also, Sergio, this comes in the context of mounting guerrilla violence in Colombia,

10:34issues there on the border with Venezuela.

10:36So how is all of that likely to play into it?

10:38You've been critical also of the decision to impose a state of emergency in that region.

10:45Well that's exactly right.

10:47One of the things that we've sustained at Colombia Risk Analysis for a while is that

10:52what is going to prevent mass migration to the United States is a more secure, more prosperous

10:57Colombia.

10:58And the best way to work with to ensure that goal is to strengthen the Colombian government's

11:03capacity to collaborate with the Colombian government to be able to do that.

11:07Instead, what the United States is doing is essentially pulling the rug off under our

11:11feet and making it harder for Colombia to operate effectively, ultimately resulting

11:18in more migration going to the United States.

11:20But that's a long term issue.

11:22The short term issue is whether or not Donald Trump won the day or not.

11:26And that's unfortunately true.

11:28And speaking of collaboration, you've also said that drug policy could be an area for

11:34collaboration between Petro and Trump.

11:37Have you seen any indication that this is likely under the Trump administration?

11:42The biggest issue there is Donald Trump wants to make the number of hectares of coca cultivated

11:48a central turning point of the relationship.

11:51And Petro is trying to move away from that metric and much more closely associate the

11:56interdiction, the amount of tons of cocaine that are captured in sea or in transit to

12:02the United States.

12:04Colombia's interdiction is growing, but it's undoubtable that Colombia's number of hectares

12:09of cocaine has been growing exponentially since Petro took office.

12:13Sergio, we'll have to leave it there for now, but we do really appreciate your time on the

12:17programme.

12:18Thanks for joining us this evening.

12:19That is Sergio Guzman, director of the political consultancy firm, Colombia Risk Analysis.

12:24Well, that's it from us.

Category

Transcript

Recommended