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The Reporter Notebook: Tariffs vs. the Stock Market
Fortune
Follow
3/12/2025
President Donald Trump's tariffs have some people worried about an upcoming recession.
Category
🤖
Tech
Transcript
Display full video transcript
00:00
If I could come up with one word, it would be tariffs.
00:03
Markets are not too happy with Trump tariffs right now.
00:06
They're pretty worried about what could be coming down the pipe
00:09
when it comes to reciprocal tariffs
00:11
that could be announced on April 2nd.
00:13
And the biggest thing is that markets simply don't know
00:16
what's going to happen and investors don't like that at all.
00:19
The famous saying is markets hate uncertainty
00:21
and uncertainty is what's sort of dominating right now.
00:24
Until we get clarity around what's going to happen
00:27
with tariffs and the rest of Donald Trump's economic agenda,
00:30
definitely this sort of volatility
00:32
is to be expected going forward.
00:34
While they might expect growth to slow
00:36
compared to previous years,
00:38
sources I've talked to and several analysts on Wall Street
00:41
aren't necessarily thinking the market
00:43
will enter a recession this year.
00:44
The investors, the portfolio managers,
00:46
the analysts I've talked to aren't necessarily panicking.
00:49
They think that this sell-off could reverse
00:51
in the near future,
00:52
but there's definitely still a lot of uncertainty
00:54
and that's what, as the saying goes,
00:56
that's what markets hate the most.
00:58
When it comes to very targeted tariffs on China,
01:02
like during Trump's first term,
01:03
that's not necessarily a surprise,
01:06
but when it comes to blanket 25% tariffs on all goods
01:10
from, say, Mexico and Canada,
01:12
that would be something that would deeply disrupt
01:14
sort of interconnected supply chains.
01:17
There seems to be some level of consensus
01:19
on what certain things that tariffs could lead to.
01:21
One, you're almost certain to see higher consumer prices
01:25
and so that decreases the purchasing power
01:28
of the consumer,
01:29
whether you're going to the grocery store
01:30
or somewhere else,
01:31
you're probably buying a little less.
01:32
As firms are looking to deploy capital
01:36
and make investments,
01:37
invest in infrastructure, things like that,
01:39
they're not gonna do so until they really know
01:40
what the picture's gonna look like.
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