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Betting on Super Bowl MVP: Derrick Henry's Odds Explained
SportsGrid
Follow
1/14/2025
Category
🥇
Sports
Transcript
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00:00
But I will say there are times to take positions on players early.
00:05
As I mentioned with Dave Sharepan on the pregame show when we were in between things,
00:10
I have a small position on Derek Henry, Super Bowl MVP, at plus 3,100.
00:15
It's 31 to 1.
00:17
And that's I'm effectively betting on the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl odds,
00:21
but I'm getting it at a much longer price.
00:24
And the way I go about this is essentially choosing one player per postseason
00:29
that I have faith in and maybe adding a second if I like the odds.
00:32
But the Ravens are plus 480 to win the Super Bowl right now.
00:36
Now, obviously, if they get eliminated, the Super Bowl ticket you have is done,
00:40
the MVP ticket I have is done, et cetera, et cetera.
00:42
But if the Ravens were to advance to the AFC Championship or on to the Super Bowl,
00:48
Derek Henry will not be 31 to 1 to win Super Bowl MVP.
00:54
It will probably be, let's say, they are behind the Lions.
00:57
It would probably be Lamar, Goff, Derek Henry,
01:01
and Jameer Gibbs as the top four options to win Super Bowl MVP.
01:04
So I am effectively betting on the Ravens to make it to the Super Bowl,
01:09
and then I have insane closing line value at 31 to 1 for Derek Henry,
01:13
when he'll probably be 4 to 1, 5 to 1, 6 to 1 to an MVP.
01:17
So once the markets open back up and we have these final 18 set,
01:23
if you have interest in even Lamar to win, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley,
01:29
you can make the argument now.
01:30
People are going to say, oh, well, running backs don't often win it.
01:33
I understand that.
01:34
I would say going into, if you want to bet on Saquon,
01:38
I think it's an easier example potentially than the Ravens,
01:40
but let's say 75% of the time Jalen Hurts wins MVP,
01:44
20% of the time Saquon wins MVP,
01:47
and then that remaining 5% is maybe an A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith.
01:51
They mentioned on the broadcast on Monday night, tonight,
01:54
that Cooper Cupp won MVP when he was in the Super Bowl.
01:57
Julian Edelman won it in 2019, I believe it was, against who was it?
02:05
The Falcons, the 28 to 3 game Julian Edelman won.
02:08
So receivers do win it, but it's a very small portion of the time.
02:12
So again, it would be Hurts winning it the majority of the time, overwhelming,
02:15
then Saquon, then maybe A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith if the Eagles were to win it.
02:20
So if you bet on Saquon at 19 to 1, which I believe I saw his number earlier today,
02:25
they're plus 420.
02:27
You're betting on Saquon essentially to get to the Super Bowl and the Eagles,
02:31
and you will have a great ticket at that point.
02:33
So these are just various things that we can have a little bit of fun with
02:37
as we're coming to the close of the NFL season.
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2:55
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