Betting on Super Bowl MVP: Derrick Henry's Odds Explained

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00:00But I will say there are times to take positions on players early.

00:05As I mentioned with Dave Sharepan on the pregame show when we were in between things,

00:10I have a small position on Derek Henry, Super Bowl MVP, at plus 3,100.

00:15It's 31 to 1.

00:17And that's I'm effectively betting on the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl odds,

00:21but I'm getting it at a much longer price.

00:24And the way I go about this is essentially choosing one player per postseason

00:29that I have faith in and maybe adding a second if I like the odds.

00:32But the Ravens are plus 480 to win the Super Bowl right now.

00:36Now, obviously, if they get eliminated, the Super Bowl ticket you have is done,

00:40the MVP ticket I have is done, et cetera, et cetera.

00:42But if the Ravens were to advance to the AFC Championship or on to the Super Bowl,

00:48Derek Henry will not be 31 to 1 to win Super Bowl MVP.

00:54It will probably be, let's say, they are behind the Lions.

00:57It would probably be Lamar, Goff, Derek Henry,

01:01and Jameer Gibbs as the top four options to win Super Bowl MVP.

01:04So I am effectively betting on the Ravens to make it to the Super Bowl,

01:09and then I have insane closing line value at 31 to 1 for Derek Henry,

01:13when he'll probably be 4 to 1, 5 to 1, 6 to 1 to an MVP.

01:17So once the markets open back up and we have these final 18 set,

01:23if you have interest in even Lamar to win, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley,

01:29you can make the argument now.

01:30People are going to say, oh, well, running backs don't often win it.

01:33I understand that.

01:34I would say going into, if you want to bet on Saquon,

01:38I think it's an easier example potentially than the Ravens,

01:40but let's say 75% of the time Jalen Hurts wins MVP,

01:4420% of the time Saquon wins MVP,

01:47and then that remaining 5% is maybe an A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith.

01:51They mentioned on the broadcast on Monday night, tonight,

01:54that Cooper Cupp won MVP when he was in the Super Bowl.

01:57Julian Edelman won it in 2019, I believe it was, against who was it?

02:05The Falcons, the 28 to 3 game Julian Edelman won.

02:08So receivers do win it, but it's a very small portion of the time.

02:12So again, it would be Hurts winning it the majority of the time, overwhelming,

02:15then Saquon, then maybe A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith if the Eagles were to win it.

02:20So if you bet on Saquon at 19 to 1, which I believe I saw his number earlier today,

02:25they're plus 420.

02:27You're betting on Saquon essentially to get to the Super Bowl and the Eagles,

02:31and you will have a great ticket at that point.

02:33So these are just various things that we can have a little bit of fun with

02:37as we're coming to the close of the NFL season.