Penn State vs. Boise State Fiesta Bowl Showdown Analysis

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00:00Penn State and Boise State Fiesta Bowl, New Year's Eve.

00:04Big number here, been hanging around 10 1⁄2.

00:06Will Gente and Boise be able to hang around

00:10with the Nittany Lions?

00:12They're gonna have to run the football to do that.

00:14And I'm saying that like there could be three-yard carries,

00:17four-yard carries, four-yard carries,

00:19and then maybe bust a big play.

00:21Penn State looked really good

00:22in their first round matchup against SMU.

00:24They have a top 10 rush defense,

00:26and I think their defense gets undervalued a little bit.

00:30The team that can run the football in this Fiesta Bowl,

00:32whether it's Penn State or Boise State,

00:34will be in good shape

00:35because you're taking pressure off Maddox Mattson,

00:37who doesn't make a ton of mistakes, to be fair,

00:39and Drew Aller,

00:41who maybe he'll take a few more shots down the field

00:43against an underrated Boise secondary.

00:45I've gone back and forth on this one all week.

00:48I think Penn State wins, obviously,

00:50but I actually think Boise State can sneak in a cover here,

00:52especially if Ashton Gente goes off.

00:55And I am glad they are the Cinderella story

00:59of this playoff, in a way.

01:00You know what I mean?

01:01I know they're the three seed, but they are the Cinderella.

01:04Oh, they absolutely are.

01:05And I did already see that they're gonna,

01:07which they should, try to change that next year.

01:09They're gonna have discussions

01:11about changing the automatic buys

01:14and just having it as the top four seeds.

01:16But they'll find something else, Bill,

01:18to complain about after that.

01:19So we always know that once we fix one thing,

01:21we're gonna complain about something after that.

01:23All right, Wednesday, three games.

01:25We'll start with the first one,

01:26Peach Bowl, Atlanta, Texas, and Arizona State.

01:31This was 13 1⁄2 for a while.

01:33We've started to see some people

01:34maybe not believe Arizona State can win the game, Bill,

01:37but a lot of people believing

01:38that maybe they could stay within this number,

01:41down to 12 1⁄2, even 11 1⁄2 in some places.

01:44Yeah, and what a fun game from the standpoint

01:47that the Big 12 powerhouse, Texas, leaves,

01:51and now they're playing the Big 12 champion, Arizona State.

01:53I mean, if I would've wrote that sentence 10 years ago,

01:55I'm not sure Sporting News would've ran the article

01:57or kept me around much longer.

02:00It's this Texas team, though,

02:02I don't like this matchup for Arizona State.

02:05I think that Texas defense is active.

02:07They get a lot of pass breakups in the secondary.

02:10Their run defense around Anthony Hill is very good.

02:13And in three of their last four games,

02:14they've ran the ball for more than 200 yards.

02:16So while we stay transfixed on Quinn Mewers

02:21and Arch Manning and that quarterback dynamic,

02:23their running game has been dominant.

02:24So I can see it hovering around that number.

02:27Did you say it's still at 13 1⁄2?

02:29If it is, go ahead.

02:32Down, down to 12 1⁄2 in most places.

02:35I've even seen an 11 1⁄2 here or there.

02:38So it's been coming down from the 13 1⁄2.

02:40If that's the case, give me the Longhorns.

02:42I'm taking the value in the Longhorns.

02:44I think they win by a couple scores.

02:45They are in Atlanta, and there's a reason

02:48why they're the betting favorite

02:49to win the national championship.

02:50I mean, I don't know if they are the best team,

02:52but they've got a pretty good look at it.

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