Fiesta Bowl Showdown: Boise State vs. Penn State Preview

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00:00The fiesta ball between Boise State and Penn State. It is the

00:07sixth seed in the Nittany Lions and the three seed in the

00:10Broncos, the champions of the Mountain West and yet a double

00:14digit spread in favor of Penn State. At least you guys, I

00:19would not say anybody is surprised to see Penn State as

00:22a hefty favorite in this matchup against Boise State.

00:25What I will ask you is this, is the game going to look more

00:28competitive than that spread might indicate? I think it will

00:31and again, Kevin Jennings thought he was playing for the

00:34Nittany Lions as opposed to the Mustangs in terms of last

00:38weekend. You know, the pick sixes were absolutely atrocious,

00:41the poor decision making. I don't think Maddox Maxson will

00:44make that type of decisions or those type of decisions because

00:48he won't be put in that position and the reason why I

00:50say that is I think Boise State looks to run it 35, 40 times in

00:55terms of this matchup. A lower scoring game does favor

00:58Boise State. Penn State and Drew Aller might have the

01:01quarterback advantage in this matchup but you can make the

01:05argument that Ashton Jante is the best player on the field.

01:08Utilize your best option. They did it against Oregon. They were

01:11able to be physical at the point of attack. If they can run the

01:14football, stay in manageable third downs, I think they're

01:18going to be within this number and I think we trend to the

01:20under. So yeah, I mean the line is where it should be in terms

01:25of ten and a half because of how dominant Penn State was but

01:28Boise State can be live in this matchup. So here is one of the

01:32trickiest things of round one and we'll never or we're far

01:36away from getting the answer. What is home field advantage

01:40worth in a college football playoff? Yeah. Right? That line

01:44closed eight, seven and a half, eight and a half. I mean, it

01:47probably depends where you're looking to find even if we use

01:50eight and a half. They gotta hit that throw. New quarterback

01:54in by the way. North Carolina, the Fenway Bulls, the freshman

01:57Michael Merdinger stepping in for Jacoby Criswell. I'm not

02:00sure because we weren't watching Criswell injured or

02:04just the offense stagnant. So, no, he had a run and then there

02:07was a delay in the game. So, I think he did pick up an ugly

02:09helmet. I don't know. If we use the eight and a half, right? And

02:15we say home field advantage was worth three and a half. Call it

02:19in a playoff game. Give it four. You want to give it four?

02:21Give it four. I'll give it three and a half because I'll try and

02:23go conservative if that's okay with you but so then that but

02:28that would then suggest that SMU is about five, five and a

02:31half points better than Boise. Absolutely not. No, they are

02:36not. Again, like I'll handle the task that nobody else will

02:40as they keep picking on poor Indiana. SMU is the team that

02:43didn't belong in the playoff. Not Indiana. Well, maybe

02:46Indiana too but certainly SMU. I think it's on the board.

02:50Boise's just better than the Mustangs quite frankly. So, I

02:53think that number looks way too high to me as we sit here on on

02:56a Saturday. In Boise State, only an underdog one time this

02:59season. Week number two in Eugene. Catching eighteen and a

03:03half points. Oregon had to walk it off with a last second field

03:06goal to win thirty-seven thirty-four. Ashton Gentee,

03:09192 yards against that Ducks defense. He only needs a buck

03:13thirty-two to pass the all-time single season record that of

03:17Barry Sanders back in 1988. Again, I would say Barry did

03:21that in eleven regular season games. If you add the ball game

03:24at twelve, he's at twenty-eight fifty. Just wanted to make that

03:28point but Penn State defensively against SMU and a

03:31good back in Breshard Smith only fifty-eight yards on thirty-six

03:36carries and only sacked Kevin Jennings three times. One point

03:40six yards per pop. Penn State as a favorite in thirty-four of

03:45forty games since the start of twenty twenty-two. Thirty-three

03:48and one straight up. Twenty-four nine and one against

03:51the spread. Both the best win and cover percentage among

03:54power conference programs in the last three years.

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