Detroit Lions' Odds Shift Amid Challenges and Wins

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00:00The Detroit Lions held on to that claim for a long time for a lot of people, including

00:07that of oddsmakers.

00:09Not that long ago, this team was plus 250 to win a Super Bowl.

00:13They're double that now at five to one, a loss to Buffalo and more injuries somehow

00:20have shifted this number on the Lions greatly.

00:24And I think maybe also being factored in is how close this team is all of a sudden

00:30being the fifth seed, which is pretty incredible.

00:32All things considered, they are still a touchdown favorite today against a reeling Chicago Bears

00:38team.

00:39Did the Bears pull off an upset?

00:40I mean, it's possible, but highly unlikely.

00:44They've lost eight straight by 11 points per game.

00:46On the flip side, you have a Detroit team that's six and 0 on the road this year and

00:50have won by an average margin of victory of 13 points per game.

00:54They made it look good against Buffalo, you know, closing the gap 48-42 in the end.

01:00We saw St. Brown have a huge performance, a buck 97, receiving on 14 receptions.

01:05I think he breaks out again today as number 70 and a half.

01:09I don't think this game is lower scoring.

01:11I think, you know, on the road, they look to put a pounding on Chicago.

01:15It's a six and a half point number.

01:16I would lay it, Donnie, reluctantly, but I would jump on the over just because of how

01:21good that Detroit offense has been.

01:23Yeah, if it gives you any pause, yes, it's a cold weather, it's a dome team going outdoors,

01:28their defense is mangled, but at the same time, the Bears really aren't going anywhere

01:31at this point.

01:32And I don't know if Caleb Williams, on a week-to-week basis, is as focused as he needs to be knowing.

01:36I'm taking cues from a guy that's not going to be here next year, and I just hope to make

01:39it out alive, and guys go into self-preservation mode.

01:41But also keep in mind, we did see a little bit earlier in the year at the Packers, talking

01:44about Detroit.

01:4524-14 win, not great weather conditions, where they held up nicely, but that also was under

01:50a defense that had four or five extra guys there that were ready to get after the quarterback

01:54and stop the run, which aren't there now.

01:56So I agree with Kevin's premises.

01:58A couple weeks ago, and since early in September, I identified the Detroit Lions as the best

02:03overall team in the NFL, let alone the NFC, and bet them accordingly here.

02:06They're still at the top of the standings if they run the table, which they can.

02:09They'll still be the number one overall seed, which means a lot.

02:12But if I'm asked right now, are they still the best team in the NFC right now, no, they're

02:15not.

02:16But they still have enough firepower to win this game.

02:18Even if David Montgomery would have been a great compliment today to Jameer Gibbs, outside

02:22in the cold weather, a little thump and bump on the inside.

02:25And now it's Jameer Gibbs' team.

02:26I'm interested to see, Kevin, how he takes the reins here.

02:30Are they just going to say, OK, well, now there's no more backfield split.

02:32You're 90-10, like we saw last year with the San Francisco 49ers, and Christian McIver

02:36say, let our best player eat on a consistent basis.

02:39That's what I want to watch.

02:40I want to see if he can be that lead dog, 25-plus touches in a game, and still be able

02:45to dominate.

02:46They're certainly expecting around that range.

02:48His rushing plus receiving number is the highest of any player on your Sunday slate, higher

02:52than that of Saquon Barkley.

02:54His anytime touchdown number is double that of Saquon Barkley as well.

02:59I actually, you know, you get three bats all the time.

03:03I threw one on him 12-15-1 to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns.

03:09He's currently at 11.

03:11The lead right now is Hertz at 14, and then Henry and James Cook, incredibly, have 13

03:16at the moment.

03:17I think it's on the board that Gibbs could get in range.

03:21From the side of it all, if I can get past betting Chicago last week, I really should

03:28just be on the Bears.

03:29The big mistake I made last week in betting Chicago plus 7 at Minnesota was it wasn't

03:34just a road game where they've been useless.

03:37It was a third straight road game, which is never easy for a team.

03:40The Bears at home are a much different team.

03:43Not just four and three straight up, but think back to when Chicago was covering every single

03:47game they played against the top of this division within their own building.

03:51The Packers and the Vikings in those close battles there, I would certainly lean towards

03:55the Bears.

03:56I just don't know if I feel like putting more money on the Chicago Bears, ultimately, after

04:02I had to sit through that Monday night.

04:03I'm with you.

04:04I thought it was an intriguing line, and you're seeing six and a halfs on FanDuel right now,

04:08which is probably going to get a little bit more, maybe Detroit money into this matchup.

04:13But knowing about all the injuries, and knowing that they had an emotional game last week

04:19against potentially one of the better teams or best team trending in the AFC right now

04:23in Buffalo, is there a letdown?

04:26You have a beaten down team right now that has lost eight straight.

04:30Caleb Williams last week running for his life against that front seven.

04:33He looked like a deer in the headlights at some point.

04:37What are you going to get out of the offense of Chicago?

04:39Are they going to come out and run the football?

04:41Or are they going to allow Caleb to chuck it all over the yard like we saw the last

04:46home game against Minnesota where he throws for 340 and two touchdowns?

04:51That's what I can't figure out from Thomas Brown.

04:53He's very inconsistent in regards to the play calling, and that's why I do lean to Detroit.

04:58Again, another game I'm not betting though, Kev.

05:00Also when you're trying to take a look at the game plan or thoughts, Joe, as you're

05:03alluding to at this point, just trying to get that updated weather look here.

05:07All right, 27 degrees, no precipitation, winds around 10 miles an hour.

05:10You'll take that every time at Soldier Field.

05:12But if you do think that they are going to be playing from behind, you do have your young

05:16rookie quarterback that you still want to get in rhythm.

05:18And we're not talking about high prices, Joe.

05:19$214.50 is his passing prop.

05:21If you say they win this football game, it's probably more buoyed on a ground attack and

05:25just Detroit maybe not playing so well.

05:28But Detroit's offense should be able to move the football against the Chicago Bears, which

05:31$214.50 isn't as much.

05:33If I'm even saying, you know, can they keep it close to the Bears?

05:36I don't think they keep it close if he has $175 in the air today.

05:39No, think about last week, right?

05:40They pulled him at $191 in the fourth quarter on the last drive for Bajoran.

05:45The one prop I did take, and it's very cheap, it's Cole Komet.

05:48We've seen Cole Komet price $25, $26 in back-to-back multiple weeks.

05:53He's down to $20.50.

05:54I just, cold weather, short throws.

05:56I took a shot on Cole Komet, $20.50 at minus $114 today.

06:00I think that's a good look.

06:01But to Donnie's point, I mean, $214 is doable for Caleb Williams.

06:05The problem is the last time they played on Thanksgiving, he basically had 20 yards in

06:09the first half.

06:10He didn't get that until the second half of that matchup.

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