Migration a global 'megatrend of this century': 281 million migrants, 117 million forcibly displaced

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00:00Today, Wednesday, December 18, is International Migrants Day, a day to raise awareness about

00:05the challenges and difficulties for migrants today.

00:08We're going to talk more about this now in detail with my guest, Mark Storrella, a professor

00:13at Boston University.

00:14Mark, you were also a U.S. Foreign Service officer for more than three decades.

00:18You're a former ambassador, and you were also Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for

00:21Refugees and Migration, so you're well-placed to talk about all of this with us.

00:26Thanks for joining us.

00:27If you would, just to start, can you give us the layout of the situation today for migrants

00:31around the world?

00:32Sure.

00:33Sure.

00:34First, migration is one of the mega trends of this century.

00:37It's a phenomenon that we're going to be dealing with for the rest of the century.

00:40Right now, about 281 million people are migrants in the world.

00:45That means they've crossed borders.

00:47But that's normal.

00:48That's orderly.

00:49Those are people going for jobs and education and so forth.

00:52But what's really impressive is the number of forcibly displaced people who are persecuted,

00:56fleeing conflict, and who are leaving their homes because they must.

01:00And that number now stands, according to UNHCR, at 117 million in the world.

01:05And that's up from just 33 million just 10 years ago.

01:09So the number keeps going up, and generally, refugees aren't going home.

01:15One of the things that's most important about this is that most of these refugees are being

01:19generated from conflicts in just four countries, Afghanistan, Iran, Venezuela, and Syria,

01:27which is one of the most important conflicts generating refugees and displacement within

01:31its own country.

01:33So given that that's where the biggest crises are, as you mentioned, would you say that

01:37all refugees around the world are treated the same?

01:40I mean, when there's a lot of international focus, a lot of media focus on those four

01:43countries that you mentioned, what about all of the other refugees around the world?

01:48So I'm afraid I have to say absolutely not.

01:51Refugees are treated differently depending on their circumstances, where they are, and

01:55what attention the international community pays to them.

01:58So for instance, the international community has generated something over $28 billion in

02:04humanitarian assistance in the last year.

02:07But certain crises, like the crisis in Ukraine, attract most of that attention, and especially

02:13because those crises are close to countries that are big donors, like Germany and France

02:19and the United States.

02:21So there's a lot going on in just a few places.

02:24If you go to countries that are farther from the centers that are generating all this donor

02:30money, mostly in Africa, frequently those folks receive very little assistance from

02:35the international community, and they don't have even basics.

02:38They don't even have food and shelter frequently.

02:41So really, there's a huge difference amongst refugees in different places.

02:44I would also add that there's a difference in the way countries treat refugees.

02:49Frequently, some countries will provide lots of assistance.

02:52Turkey is doing a fantastic job with Syrian refugees, but other countries are unable to.

02:57Lebanon has done a great job within its means, but has very few means to support refugees.

03:03You were talking earlier about some of these countries that aren't getting the spotlight

03:06at all.

03:07I mean, which countries are most at risk of slipping through the cracks, so to speak?

03:11I mean, which migrant crisis have been the most forgotten?

03:15You know, countries have to, the international community has to prioritize where it will

03:19spend its attention.

03:20I worked hard on the Rohingya refugee crisis in Bangladesh, in Myanmar.

03:27Those refugees fled, over a million, and initially there was an enormous outpouring of support

03:32for them.

03:33But now that support is beginning to dwindle.

03:35What we see is that the appeals put out by the United Nations, which were initially funded

03:40at something like 80% of what was required, are now dwindling down to more like 40% of

03:47what is required.

03:48If we look at a lot of the crises in Africa, including Sudan, which is an emerging mega-crisis,

03:54the support is even less.

03:56And in many of those cases, it's hard to get to those locations as well.

04:01So we have some important trends going on in terms of the level of support for migrants

04:05around the world, but also really big political trends that are affecting the way people look

04:10at migrants and refugees.

04:12About that.

04:13I mean, looking toward the future, how could those trends, the politics of today, affect

04:16the future of migration?

04:20One of the things that we're seeing, whether in the United States or in Europe, or for

04:24that matter, in India, in Turkey and other parts of the world, is an increasing level

04:31of identification with nationalism and borders.

04:35It is most striking that Donald Trump, in 2015 when he announced his campaign, the main

04:41plank of that campaign was about the problem of migration.

04:47And he ran on that again this year and was elected.

04:50In Europe, we saw Angela Merkel make a decision to admit 1 million Syrian refugees.

04:56And shortly after that, for a number of reasons, not just that, she was no longer chancellor.

05:01And now the European Union is itself putting together a new pact on migrants and asylum

05:07seekers, which is more restrictive.

05:09So we're seeing a populist movement against refugees and migrants around the world.

05:15And that is leading to borders that are harder to cross and the likelihood that there will

05:20be less support for refugees who are in sometimes absolutely urgent need.

05:25You mentioned a moment ago, Syria, obviously the war there provoked one of the biggest

05:29refugee crises as we've seen in recent years.

05:32I mean, what kind of implications might there be from now on in regard to migration following

05:37the end of the Assad regime?

05:40The end of the Assad regime has been greeted everywhere with great relief and in many cases

05:45joy.

05:46But we're all wondering what will come next.

05:48In the case of Syria, I know Syrian refugees who are saying, we'd like to go back.

05:53And I've heard from friends who were in the region who said that after the fall, they

05:58saw cars streaming into Syria from surrounding countries, presumably representing refugees.

06:06Right now we're seeing a debate inside the European Union already about whether this

06:10change means that refugees inside the European Union should be sent back to Syria.

06:15According to the High Commissioner for Refugees and the Refugee Convention as it is interpreted,

06:21we generally say refugees should not go back unless it's voluntary, safe, and in dignity.

06:27That might be a high bar in a case like Syria where the country is so broken.

06:31Nevertheless, there will be a strong push by the refugees themselves to return, but

06:36probably by surrounding governments, including Turkey and Lebanon and perhaps the European

06:40Union to see refugees go back.

06:43Mark, thank you so much for sharing your expertise with us on this World Migration Day.

06:47Mark Storella at Boston University.

06:49Thanks very much.

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