Bijan Robinson Over/Under 28.5 Receiving Yards Analysis

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00:00All right, let's move on here to a running back and utilization might be different here.

00:07It's a receiving yards prop for Bijan Robinson, 28 and a half receiving yards over or under

00:15considering the matchup, Joe, how do you lean?

00:18Well, I lean because, you know, they are pretty good against the run that the Minnesota Vikings

00:23vulnerability is really good past catching running backs and Bijan Robinson might be,

00:27you know, outside of Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Jameer Gibbs, like he's in that conversation

00:33of those guys for sure.

00:35Last week, you saw him have 33 yards on this one, the two weeks before, guess what?

00:4028 and 28.

00:42So Vegas knows what they're doing when they set this line here at 28 and a half is right

00:46there.

00:47And I think it's an over today.

00:48I think you're going to see, again, a very motivated Atlanta Falcons team with their

00:51back against the wall.

00:52The Falcons aren't a great football team.

00:54They're a football team that plays in a lesser division that is still trying to figure out

00:58their parts and they've had a lot of change and it's been times where it's been good and

01:02really clicked and times where it's been bad.

01:05I think this is one of those times where it's good enough.

01:07And I think the 28 and a half would be an over.

01:10I would think it's going to be in the thirties this week.

01:12So if they have any chance to beat the Vikings, you got to get the ball in Bijan's hands.

01:16And I think the best way to do that this week is via the past, not via handing it off.

01:21All right, let's move on to the tight end position here.

01:24We always try to get crafty with our props.

01:26It's Pat Friermuth and it's over under two and a half receptions here.

01:30Now you've laid out Friermuth's assets when you were just talking about the stability

01:35of the Steelers.

01:37Does that lean to an over here?

01:40Well everybody knows me, knows that I tend to stay away from the receptions, props and

01:44things of that nature.

01:45I like the yardage totals.

01:46Like you could get all the yardage on one play.

01:50That happens in football.

01:52Can't do that if you're not getting targets.

01:54Now the good news is the target volume is starting to change a little bit for Pat Friermuth.

01:57Mike Williams was an addition to this team, but he has really done next to nothing.

02:01Pickens has been very good.

02:03So the second guy in this passing attack is starting to become Pat Friermuth.

02:08So if you look at that trend, four targets two weeks ago, seven targets last week, he

02:13caught four and then six.

02:15So he has been over this number in three of the last four games.

02:17That is a good enough trend with Russell Wilson in a game where you know, Jameis Winston's

02:22not going to stop throwing the football under any circumstances.

02:25There's no deficit.

02:28There's no lead where his mindset changes.

02:30Jameis Winston's going to be slinging the football and that's good news on the props

02:34for the other side because you're going to have to continue to keep pace in some fashion.

02:38So give me Pat Friermuth over this two and a half.

02:40I think you can get to four again receptions today and he has some touchdown equity as

02:44well.

02:45So if you want to put that TD along with it, you're getting a good number there too.

02:47But I think Pat Friermuth is starting to emerge as a useful part of this offense.

02:51He's got a lot of talent.

02:52Just nobody was really been able to unlock him yet in his career in Pittsburgh.

02:56Maybe Russell Wilson has been that guy.

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