Exploring College Football: Oregon's Real Strength

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00:00Here's the thing, I looked at this game and I knew almost immediately what needed to be

00:06done.

00:07The question was, would I do it?

00:10Because you look at this game and he's right.

00:13You go, well, Penn State can't win a big game.

00:17Move on.

00:18Next.

00:19Here's the issue though.

00:20They can't beat Ohio State.

00:22They can't beat Michigan.

00:24But I, and you know this has been the case all year, I'm not sure Oregon is as good as

00:30everybody thinks.

00:31I'll throw out just two quick things.

00:33I know they're not perfect.

00:35FPI.

00:36Do you know who's not inside the top five on the ESPN FPI?

00:40Penn State, I guess.

00:42And Oregon.

00:43Oh, wow.

00:44Which you never would imagine.

00:45Strength of schedule.

00:46You know, the thing that is told everybody, Indiana doesn't belong in the dance one bit.

00:51Right.

00:5265th.

00:53You got to imagine the Ducks are somewhere.

00:5460th.

00:55Yeah.

00:56Oregon.

00:57Like, I'll be honest.

00:59Every team other than Georgia is in their position because of the strength of schedule.

01:05Now they beat Ohio State by one at home.

01:08Again, if Oregon is all that good, that's what you're supposed to do.

01:13Speaking of the game against Ohio State that Oregon was home for, they were three and a

01:17half point dog.

01:18You know who also is a three and a half point home dog to Ohio State?

01:22Penn State.

01:24Spread math for anybody on a Saturday morning, and I'll throw this last one out there.

01:28They've played seven common opponents, the Ducks and the Nittany Lions, and the better

01:32point differential, despite the loss, belongs to Penn State.

01:37The hook matters.

01:39It could be a close game.

01:40I'm taking the three and a half with Penn State.

01:42So when this line opened up on Saturday, after Ohio State faltered in the game for a fourth

01:48consecutive season, they were the anticipated team and the odds-on favorite to play Oregon

01:54in Indy on this first Saturday in December.

01:57I bet the Ducks, playing three and a half, thinking I was being a shop, and I would get

02:02the best of the number.

02:04It would be four and a half, five, five and a hook on this Saturday.

02:08It has not moved a lick.

02:11In fact, if you want some odds optimism for the Nittany Lions, despite being a dog, to

02:16take the dog, you got to lay a little bit more juice on this Saturday in Indianapolis.

02:22But Kev, right back to you.

02:24Penn State has been an underdog five times since the start of 2022.

02:28All five times, as you might imagine, against Ohio State, three times in Michigan, twice.

02:34The Nittany Lions are 0-5 straight up with only a single cover, and that happened against

02:40Ohio State back in 2022.

02:42They lost by double digits, but did cover as a 15-and-a-half-point underdog.

02:48Why is this time different?

02:50Why do the Nittany Lions keep this game competitive?

02:52I mean, look, part of it is who is across from them.

02:57Like, I don't want to—Oregon did beat Ohio State, right?

03:01That did happen.

03:03That is the only—Dan Lanning is James Franklin, but they played Georgia two years ago, dumped

03:09on their heads.

03:10Hold on.

03:11Let's forget that.

03:13Last year, they played Washington in the regular season.

03:15They didn't get it done.

03:17And then, one of my favorite calls you've ever made, weeks if not months in advance

03:22of what a Oregon-Washington Pac-12 rematch would be priced at.

03:29You said it would be a touchdown.

03:30He called you nuts, and you were right.

03:33And what happened?

03:34Washington won out.

03:35The Ducks laid an absolute egg.

03:37Oh my gosh, he's locked in on Saturday.

03:40This is a spot that I know Lanning got the win against Ohio State.

03:44I'm not saying he didn't.

03:46But if you're the best team in college football, winning by one at home is really not that

03:50much of an accomplishment.

03:51It's not.

03:52And I look at, what do I trust the most on this field?

03:56Believe it or not, it's the Penn State defense.

03:59That unit to me, I think Gabriel's got turnover problems, and I don't believe in that Oregon

04:04defense as much as everybody else.

04:06Two step-up spots, both in their building, 30-plus to both Ohio State and Boise State.

04:12I think Penn State, I don't even want to assign it to any players, I think Penn State can

04:16move the ball, Joe.

04:17They can move the ball.

04:18If they can run it, they're going to win this game.

04:20Now, a couple of things about the Penn State offense, I mean, they're 7-0 every time they

04:24pound the rock for over 200 yards, averaging 194 yards per game entering this matchup.

04:30They've won those seven games in 2024 by an average margin of victory of 29.1 points per

04:36game.

04:37And to Kevin's point about the front seven, they are rock solid.

04:39One of the best in college football, holding opposing offenses to 94 rushing yards per

04:44game, less than three yards per rush.

04:46They've held eight opponents under 100 yards this year.

04:49They've won those games by an average margin of 28.1 points per game.

04:53They shut down the rushing attack of Jordan James and that offensive line.

04:57They're going to be in this matchup.

04:59That's a tough ask, though.

05:00It is, because the pressure of knowing that James Franklin hasn't stepped up in this particular

05:05spot.

05:06How does the team respond?

05:07We saw them play down to the level of competition, Ball State, UCLA, Illinois, at home.

05:12They had won, but didn't cover those games.

05:15They didn't cover against Minnesota as an 11-and-a-half, 12-point road favorite.

05:19So there have been struggles throughout the season.

05:22This is an opportunity to erase that and just go for broke.

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