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AgriCast Episode 6: November 20, 2024 | Rainfall, export strength, and WA sheep challenges
AgriCast
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11/19/2024
Matt Dalgleish from Episode 3 joins Kirsten Diprose to discuss rainfall impacts on red meat prices, challenges for WA sheep farmers amid the live export phase-out.
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00:00
Hello, and welcome to AgriCast, Kirsten Dipros here, and joining me for a look at the markets
00:11
is Matt Dalgleish from Episode 3. Hi, Matt.
00:15
G'day, Kirsten.
00:16
We've had some rainfall outlooks, I suppose, for the next couple of months. What's that
00:20
meaning for the prices of red meat?
00:23
It's probably a broad positive that we are seeing some rainfall come through now. It
00:27
is still a bit patchy, though. And I guess from the longer term projection, we're really
00:32
more importantly now looking at what's going to happen when the autumn break comes next
00:36
year. That's probably, you know, through this period of time in the south, it's dry anyways.
00:39
You know, the markets are geared up for that normal seasonal run. So, yeah, the next big
00:44
one will be the forecast looking at that autumn break next year.
00:47
Donald Trump is the president-elect. Has that had any impact on markets at all?
00:52
The cattle market's been fairly stable, to be honest. And again, just in the last week
00:56
or so, price is marginally higher. And with sheep and lamb, particularly in the lamb space,
01:01
we have actually seen quite a delayed flush of lambs in the south. So that's actually
01:06
meant that prices, particularly in the lamb area, have been elevated to a degree. And
01:10
uncharacteristically, we've saw price rises through this part of spring. About a week
01:14
or so ago, we did start to see a bit of price pressure. But in the last week, it's levelled
01:18
off again and gone a bit sideways with maybe a slight upward bias.
01:22
And speaking of a Trump presidency, is that likely to change anything, particularly with
01:26
his talk about tariffs on imports?
01:29
In the red meat space, I think it's going to be limited impact. And indeed, if you look
01:33
back at the previous term, he kind of removed the tariff requirement for Australia. And
01:38
we have got a free trade agreement with them now that exists. So there's a chance we might
01:43
get exempted again. But even if we do get some tariff applied, it's probably not going
01:47
to be on the really high end and the real punitive type. It might be 10% or so. And
01:53
given the circumstances currently in the US regards their cattle herd and their demand
01:58
for red meat, so beef and sheep meat, I think a tariff apply probably won't have a big impact
02:03
on our market.
02:04
Coming back home now, and in WA, there's been some ongoing issues in terms of large sheep
02:10
and lamb discounts. What's happening there?
02:13
There's been a real lack of confidence over the last year and a half, you could probably
02:16
say, ever since we were fairly clear that they were going to have the phase out of live
02:20
sheep. Now that we've got a date scheduled and the government's pushing ahead with that
02:23
program, there have been quite a lot of West Australian sheep producers that have decided
02:29
to get out, I think, or to reduce their exposure significantly. So we've seen over the last
02:35
year and a half a significant drop away in the West Australian flock and a bit of a change
02:39
also to the demographic of sheep. So there are a few looking at moving out of Merino
02:43
and out of wool and into more meat breed scenario if the enterprise mix allows. But it's really
02:49
this lack of confidence and this change in dynamic has really impacted because the processing
02:54
sector there isn't quite ready to take all the domestic flows. And when they get a bit
02:59
backlogged, it flows through to lower prices in the West versus the East.
03:03
Any other key insights or things we should be watching ahead for in the market with red
03:08
meat?
03:09
Exports have been really booming, and I think they're going to continue that way. And that's
03:12
what's been underpinning the strong export markets, whether it's with beef or sheep meat,
03:16
have been flowing through and underpinning prices this year. We saw that sell off late
03:21
last year that was concerned around rainfall itself that never eventuated. But so far this
03:26
year, we've had a recovery in pricing and everything's pointing towards positives as
03:31
long as we don't slip into that drought scenario across the country into the next year or so.
03:37
Matt Dalgleish, also known as The Meat Watcher from Episode 3, thank you so much for your
03:42
time.
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