AgriCast Episode 6: November 20, 2024 | Rainfall, export strength, and WA sheep challenges - video Dailymotion

AgriCast

Matt Dalgleish from Episode 3 joins Kirsten Diprose to discuss rainfall impacts on red meat prices, challenges for WA sheep farmers amid the live export phase-out.

Transcript

00:00Hello, and welcome to AgriCast, Kirsten Dipros here, and joining me for a look at the markets

00:11is Matt Dalgleish from Episode 3. Hi, Matt.

00:15G'day, Kirsten.

00:16We've had some rainfall outlooks, I suppose, for the next couple of months. What's that

00:20meaning for the prices of red meat?

00:23It's probably a broad positive that we are seeing some rainfall come through now. It

00:27is still a bit patchy, though. And I guess from the longer term projection, we're really

00:32more importantly now looking at what's going to happen when the autumn break comes next

00:36year. That's probably, you know, through this period of time in the south, it's dry anyways.

00:39You know, the markets are geared up for that normal seasonal run. So, yeah, the next big

00:44one will be the forecast looking at that autumn break next year.

00:47Donald Trump is the president-elect. Has that had any impact on markets at all?

00:52The cattle market's been fairly stable, to be honest. And again, just in the last week

00:56or so, price is marginally higher. And with sheep and lamb, particularly in the lamb space,

01:01we have actually seen quite a delayed flush of lambs in the south. So that's actually

01:06meant that prices, particularly in the lamb area, have been elevated to a degree. And

01:10uncharacteristically, we've saw price rises through this part of spring. About a week

01:14or so ago, we did start to see a bit of price pressure. But in the last week, it's levelled

01:18off again and gone a bit sideways with maybe a slight upward bias.

01:22And speaking of a Trump presidency, is that likely to change anything, particularly with

01:26his talk about tariffs on imports?

01:29In the red meat space, I think it's going to be limited impact. And indeed, if you look

01:33back at the previous term, he kind of removed the tariff requirement for Australia. And

01:38we have got a free trade agreement with them now that exists. So there's a chance we might

01:43get exempted again. But even if we do get some tariff applied, it's probably not going

01:47to be on the really high end and the real punitive type. It might be 10% or so. And

01:53given the circumstances currently in the US regards their cattle herd and their demand

01:58for red meat, so beef and sheep meat, I think a tariff apply probably won't have a big impact

02:03on our market.

02:04Coming back home now, and in WA, there's been some ongoing issues in terms of large sheep

02:10and lamb discounts. What's happening there?

02:13There's been a real lack of confidence over the last year and a half, you could probably

02:16say, ever since we were fairly clear that they were going to have the phase out of live

02:20sheep. Now that we've got a date scheduled and the government's pushing ahead with that

02:23program, there have been quite a lot of West Australian sheep producers that have decided

02:29to get out, I think, or to reduce their exposure significantly. So we've seen over the last

02:35year and a half a significant drop away in the West Australian flock and a bit of a change

02:39also to the demographic of sheep. So there are a few looking at moving out of Merino

02:43and out of wool and into more meat breed scenario if the enterprise mix allows. But it's really

02:49this lack of confidence and this change in dynamic has really impacted because the processing

02:54sector there isn't quite ready to take all the domestic flows. And when they get a bit

02:59backlogged, it flows through to lower prices in the West versus the East.

03:03Any other key insights or things we should be watching ahead for in the market with red

03:08meat?

03:09Exports have been really booming, and I think they're going to continue that way. And that's

03:12what's been underpinning the strong export markets, whether it's with beef or sheep meat,

03:16have been flowing through and underpinning prices this year. We saw that sell off late

03:21last year that was concerned around rainfall itself that never eventuated. But so far this

03:26year, we've had a recovery in pricing and everything's pointing towards positives as

03:31long as we don't slip into that drought scenario across the country into the next year or so.

03:37Matt Dalgleish, also known as The Meat Watcher from Episode 3, thank you so much for your

03:42time.

AgriCast Episode 6: November 20, 2024 | Rainfall, export strength, and WA sheep challenges

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