LSU vs. Florida: Game Preview, Best Bets, and Odds Analysis

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00:00Here's a game that is incredibly compelling.

00:05We head to Gainesville once again.

00:07How does LSU respond after two consecutive losses and getting thrashed last week at home

00:14in a night game inside Tiger Stadium?

00:16Lacey Guy, the odds maker is not expecting LSU to show all that much resilience in Gainesville

00:22in the swamp today.

00:24Just a three and a half point spread.

00:25Billy Napier has told the media that they expect DJ Lagway to return.

00:30He was not out there last week.

00:32It was Aiden Warner as the Gators got rolled by Texas in Austin.

00:37How do you break down this matchup?

00:39What bounce back will we see out of the Bayou Bengals?

00:40They better give a good bounce back because that was a pathetic effort allowing Jalen

00:45Milrow a buck 85 on the ground, 311 for a team in terms of Alabama as a whole, averaged

00:51well over six and a half yards per Gary.

00:53That defensive front seven needs to get after it.

00:56Nussmeier looked like a deer in the headlights.

00:58I expect a much better effort today.

01:00They have one 10 straight, excuse me, five straight in the series by an average margin

01:04of victory of 10.2 points per game.

01:07Picked up this victory by double digits last year.

01:10What I really like though, guys, is points.

01:12I expect the offensive continuity for Nussmeier, Mason Taylor, and the rushing attack to get

01:17going a little bit more than they did last week with Caden Dorham.

01:20I think we're going to have points.

01:2265 meetings, you look at these scores, 42-28, 37-34, 49-42, 45-35, 52-35, and we're sitting

01:31on a 55 and a half here.

01:33Give me LSU, but I'd like the over here.

01:35It's tough for me to know exactly what Lagway's going to look like.

01:38I've heard people say, oh, mobile quarterbacks give LSU, I don't know if this kid can move

01:42at all.

01:43When you're on a stretcher with a hamstring injury, I'm surprised he's not having the

01:45Dak Prescott season ending surgery.

01:48I'll just say with Brian Kelly, he had a 4-8 season at Notre Dame where he didn't lose

01:52three games in a row.

01:53You have to go back to 2014, the last time BK had a three-game losing streak here.

01:59It happened.

02:00It was a 7-1 team that all of a sudden lost four in a row, so there's some similarities,

02:03but you're talking about something that, for Brian Kelly, would, I think, shake his standing

02:09at this program that he, again, immediately caught fire, went to an SEC title game here.

02:14A lot of pressure on Brian Kelly.

02:15Napier's already been re-upped.

02:16Yeah.

02:18Eighth time in nine games for Florida, they will be an underdog against Power Conference

02:23competition 4-3 ATS in the previous seven.

02:27LSU has not been a good cover team this year, favored four times against Power 4 competition,

02:33just 1-3 against the spread.

02:34Quickly here, Lacey Guy, to your point about this Blake Baker-led defense, after the win

02:39against Arkansas, holding the Hogs to only 38 rushing yards in that game, they were allowing

02:44just 20.6 points per game as a scoring defense.

02:47They have given up 80 total points in 553 rushing yards in their last two games against

02:55A&M and Alabama.

02:56Speaking of the Crimson Tide, Kev, they're playing an FCS foe, a nine-win FCS foe, but

03:02still an FCS foe that is Mercer.

03:05Alabama at home today, inside Brian Denny, now 42-and-a-half point favorite.

03:10You said it earlier, this game has no impact on the Tide's outlook for the SEC championship,

03:15but still you want to look good.

03:16How good will Alabama look today in Tuscaloosa?

03:19It's tough to tell because Mercer, again, you mentioned, is a nine-win football team,

03:22and DeBoer only won game in his time at Washington against a non-FBS opponent.

03:26Now they did beat up on a Portland State team, 52-6, covering, what was it, a little bit

03:30of a 30-and-a-half, 31-and-a-half spread, somewhat easily in that game.

03:34I would look towards the over here though, Joe.

03:37Mercer's record is largely due to their offense.

03:39So if Alabama can get into the 40s in this game, Mercer should be able to do enough.

03:44Absolutely.

03:4557-and-a-half to me is light, and the biggest thing for me is that they're 4-0 all-time

03:49against Mercer.

03:51Last time they played was back in 2021, but the difference between maybe Nick Saban and

03:55Kaitlin DeBoer, Nick Saban will win this game 55-to-maybe-3, cover the number, and get out

04:00of dodge.

04:01So get the cover, that's the most important thing for the back.

04:05Hey Bears, take the check, we're still going to hammer you.

04:08Texas A&M playing host today inside Kyle Field to New Mexico State.

04:13This is not Diego Pavia's NMSU 38-and-a-half point spread in favor of the Aggies.

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