College Football Waitlist Analysis: Top Teams and Predictions

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00:00Here is the waitlist next up, if you will, Penn State, Iowa State, Alabama, SMU and Texas

00:09A&M.

00:10Those are the five teams, not necessarily in proper order, but just on the outside of

00:16the top 10.

00:17Kevin Walsh, the floor is yours.

00:18Yeah.

00:19I think we basically, you know, this year we start, we've made sure to keep kindness

00:21within the segment.

00:22It's been Penn State outside of the top 10 is exactly what I'm talking about.

00:27Absolutely where they belong.

00:28I think they are a waitlist team.

00:30You know, this is no crazy, I'll get this team out of my top 25.

00:33Listen, we, we know they can still beat up on teams.

00:36They did only lose the game by a touchdown and if not for some insane decisions and ineffectiveness

00:40really in the red area, they could have had that game tied.

00:43No doubt.

00:44I don't think Penn State has a top 10 resume right now, Joe.

00:47I don't think they've earned that.

00:48So I'm happy to see Penn State on just the waitlist.

00:51No, I'm there with you again.

00:52I'm not sold on Drew Aller.

00:54I'm not sold on, you know, their passing attack in a big spot, their best performance.

00:58You can argue was on the road against USC where they trailed by double digits in that

01:02matchup.

01:03They did win, but we see five losses now out of USC.

01:06The most impressive one for me is SMU because it's not just the offense with Kevin Jennings.

01:12It is the defense statistically holding offenses less than three yards per carry, less than

01:17a hundred yards on the ground to opposing a 29% third down defense.

01:22That's one of the tops in all the college football.

01:25They crashed a party.

01:26They're not going to be potentially a one and done.

01:29They can win some games in the college football playoffs.

01:32The Stangs, one of those 10 teams holding opponents to less than a hundred yards per

01:35game on the ground.

01:37We saw what they did to a once lethal offense in Pitt last week.

01:41SMU was some quality wins against teams ranked in the CFP top 25 as well, where things stand.

01:48A loss, their only loss of the year to BYU that at the time looked bad, maybe not as

01:53bad as once perceived.

01:55A&M on the outside, of course, after getting beat last week by South Carolina, Alabama

02:00would probably be the team that ranked 11th in the CFP rankings, would be the closest

02:05to the top 10 out of the teams in the wait list.

02:08And I did have a debate on whether to keep a big 12 team in the wait list, despite getting

02:13upset by a point last week at home against Texas Tech, albeit as a near two touchdown

02:18favorite Iowa state remains leases.

02:20Yeah.

02:21Iowa State, again, concerns with Rocco back a little inconsistent, and we have to keep

02:25an eye out on the two teams that are playing tonight, Texas Tech and Colorado.

02:29I think they can unseat Iowa State in terms of that next best team in the big 12 preseason

02:34played over one and a half big 12 teams to get in.

02:36The only pathway now is probably BYU run the table and then lose in the big 12 title game.

02:41It is what it is.

02:43I don't really think Iowa State like Iowa State Army is a tough debate, right?

02:50Because clearly what this shows and because I know Boise is in your top 10, which I don't

02:55love personally.

02:56I'm not telling you they don't deserve a wait list.

02:58I think Boise in front of Bama, even Boise in front of Penn State.

03:01I can't necessarily agree with Boise's claim to famous hanging with Oregon back when the

03:06ducks were total mess.

03:08They were on the road as a three point loss.

03:10That's great.

03:11Army's beating everyone.

03:12I know they play terrible teams.

03:13I get that.

03:14But also, I think Indiana has shown they've earned it.

03:18The second best cover team, I think, is Army.

03:20And last week's non-cover was without Bryson Daly, who's legitimately played at a Heisman

03:26level.

03:27And they're like, this is what the committee does, man.

03:29This is why I get upset with those rankings.

03:32And I think you truly do a better job with this and you're more willing to adjust.

03:35The AP poll, because it's been going on all year, Army's at 18.

03:39The committee, fresh eyes at it, first crack at it.

03:41Army 25th, where if they were doing it all season, Army would be much higher.

03:46And I still think the 25th is a little slanderous.

03:48Can I just ask a question with Army?

03:50So if they win today against North Texas, they have a game, a top 10 battle with Notre

03:55Dame.

03:56If they lose and let's say lose a three point game, because we saw Navy get smashed by them.

04:01Would you then put Army in the area of where Iowa State and Penn State are?

04:06They would be in consideration, I would think, for the wait list.

04:09I actually think this game today against North Texas, far supreme to that matchup against

04:13Notre Dame, despite brand power of what it would be, because we're not going to expect

04:17Army to win that game.

04:18More than likely, they will not and Notre Dame will.

04:21And the at-large berth for Army in the CFP is not there.

04:25Through the American, it is.

04:27And now without Bryson Daly, which is what we are seeing for today against a very potent

04:31offense in North Texas, it's going to be difficult for Dwayne Coleman and the Black Knights to

04:36get that win.

04:37Just wanted to make two points quickly based on my rankings and in comparison to the college

04:41football playoff rankings.

04:42SMU is just on the outside of the top 12 at 13.

04:47Some respect for the Stangs.

04:48Iowa State, who is the second highest ranked Big 12 team, has three two-loss SEC teams

04:55in front of them, including Texas A&M, LSU, and Ole Miss.

05:00A difficult ground to make up, Kev, to go over one and a half Big 12 teams in the college

05:04football playoff.

05:05But again, I don't have much beef with it.

05:06The problem for Iowa State is you pick up their best win is a Big 10 team.

05:10Listen, the Big 12 is not providing a lot of chances for quality wins.

05:14If only Iowa State played the teams that were supposed to be good.

05:18If memory serves, there's no Utah on there.

05:20I don't even think there's an Oklahoma State on there so far.

05:22Who in the world put this schedule?

05:24What, did they just play Baylor eight times?

05:26That's why I had the over of seven and a half, but I was going to get there last week.

05:30Two tutties against the Red Raiders did not happen.

05:33All right, now to the top 10, where Kevin is correct, Boise State checks in here at

05:37the 10.

05:38We work our way up.

05:40Tennessee remains in the top 10 at number nine.

05:43I actually, despite being an Indiana lover, have them slotted in at eight, BYU at seven,

05:49and Notre Dame at number six.

05:50And here's why I have Indiana at number eight, just to say it.

05:54Because although I believe in IU and I love to make the points that people say anybody

05:58could be nine and O with this slate, maybe nobody would perform quite as well as Indiana

06:03has 33 point per game average victory margin, the best cover margin in the country as I

06:08have laid out.

06:10I do actually believe the strength of schedule is fair to justify them behind a BYU and even

06:14teams with a loss.

06:16It's 103rd.

06:17It's 14th the remainder of this season for Indiana, including a road trip to Columbus

06:22and a big one today, of course, Joe at home against Michigan.

06:25I love to see it.

06:26I guess for me personally, I would just jumble them.

06:29I would have probably Tennessee at seven and have BYU behind Indiana because of the close

06:36games that BYU has played, Oklahoma State.

06:40But that's just me.

06:41And just to say, BYU is one of seven teams ranked in the car or just around the country,

06:46in fact, that has multiple wins against the CFP top 25.

06:49So you can't really argue strength of resume for the Cougs.

06:52Yeah.

06:53So BYU is where I'd have them.

06:55The reason I have Indiana higher, I'm lower on Notre Dame ranking wise.

06:58The NIU thing is, again, it's kind of it's not aged gracefully, it's just it happened

07:02so long ago.

07:03They're kind of getting away with it now.

07:06Here's my thing with Indiana.

07:07Yes, it's one hundred and thirty schedule.

07:09There's not a single game you can look at.

07:10We love doing this in sports.

07:12They should have lost.

07:13People keep saying, right, Alabama should have lost to South Carolina.

07:17Not at all.

07:18Not at all.

07:19Not at all.

07:20They were never in danger of losing that game.

07:22They were in danger of it going to overtime at one point.

07:25Miraculously, they were never in danger of losing that football game through what I was

07:28watching there.

07:30Indiana is steamrolling everyone.

07:33And in my opinion, their three best resume points are their last three games.

07:37Nebraska hung with Ohio State, beat Colorado, drilled, backup quarterback against a good

07:44Washington team.

07:45Fourteen.

07:46Thanks for coming.

07:47Michigan State, KOR's first game back.

07:50Yep.

07:51That's forty seven unanswered.

07:52They're still scoring in East Lansing right now.

07:54I listen.

07:55I would personally have them six.

07:57I mean this.

07:59If you told me you have a one, I'd be fine with it.

08:02And that's how good they've been.

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