Heisman Trophy Odds Shift: Early Season Standouts & Futures

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00:00You would not necessarily expect in the openers for a bunch of these clubs around the country

00:09to see a ton of changing markets in the Heisman Trophy.

00:12We're in stat-padding territory early on in the season, but we did see a substantial amount

00:18of movement following this first full Saturday.

00:22Oregon's Dylan Gabriel remains the favorite, but at a 7-1 number.

00:26The number has actually worked against him by a dollar.

00:30Carson Beck was pretty good against a good Clemson defense, and yet he moves back in

00:35the market.

00:36I think the reason we are seeing that movement, Joe, is because of the guys on the come-up.

00:41Jackson Dart, Cam Ward, Jalen Milrow, all now a 10-1 price tied for the third-best number.

00:48Milrow and Dart were 14-1 before Saturday.

00:51Cam Ward a little bit longer than that, and both put on, or all three, I should say, put

00:56on full display what they could be capable of this season.

00:58Yeah, they put on those gaudy performances, right?

01:01You know, especially with Cam Ward on a national stage.

01:04That was a 3-30 game, 385 yards.

01:07We know about the dominance in regards to Billy Napier in Florida at home, and obviously

01:13in recent years how Mario Cristobal and the team failed to step up on the road, right,

01:17in road environments.

01:18So, that was a great performance, and that's where you see value in regards to the markets,

01:24Kevin, in regards to the Heisman Trophy, because you get the week-to-week now where

01:29potentially Carson Beck, I mean, that started slow, still put up 275.

01:33I mean, he had a bunch of drops in that matchup.

01:36That's still a top-20 defense in regards to Clemson, and he torched them in the second

01:41half.

01:42So, maybe, you know, after the month of September, we could sit back and say, okay, now this

01:46is a guy to jump on because the markets moved so much, including Travis Hunter in regards

01:52to that performance on Thursday night.

01:55Look, Hunter, certainly a good point.

01:56A lot of movement.

01:57I know we're going to talk some Colorado in a little bit here.

01:59So, last year, everyone knows I had the Milrow ticket.

02:02It might be kind of forgotten.

02:03I also had the Carson Beck ticket as well, and why I think some of these performances

02:08we saw yesterday matter is I was very dejected the first two weeks of football from Beck

02:13last year because he threw three total touchdowns between the games against UT Martin and Ball

02:18State.

02:19Again, Milrow yesterday had five total scores.

02:21The Jackson dart, I don't care who you're playing, that was ridiculous, 400 yards and

02:29a half.

02:30There was a part of me that almost legitimately, leave him out there, see if he can throw 1,000.

02:34I don't care.

02:35Like, it was unreal, so, because at the end of the day, when we're doing the Heisman voting,

02:42we are going to go full counting stats here.

02:44We don't ever say, here's what they averaged per game.

02:47So, that's why yesterday, for Milrow, dart, Nico, those were such big days, and that's

02:54why, I promise I'm not trying to add on, for Dylan Gabriel, that's a huge missed opportunity

03:00there to walk away with two touchdowns, 380 yards is good, two touchdown passes, that's

03:05a big whiff.

03:06Oregon's offensive day yesterday was strange.

03:09If you were just box score surfing and looking why Oregon was only up a score over FCS foe

03:14Idaho, it didn't really make sense.

03:17Dylan Gabriel was throwing the football well, they were moving it well, they had multiple

03:21turnover on downs to end possessions throughout that game.

03:25They missed field goal early, despite on one of their first opening offensive possessions,

03:30it was Gabriel connecting with Tez Johnson, who remains in Eugene, providing that optimistic

03:36spark offensively.

03:38But you are right, because when you think about the sum of your year, often times, Dylan

03:43Gabriel throwing for 415 yards and four touchdowns happens against a team like Idaho, was not

03:49necessarily the case yesterday.

03:52I thought Jalen Milrow was fantastic, and just to mention Jackson Dart, 418 passing

03:57yards, 27 more on the ground, five passing touchdowns, a rushing score, six total TDs,

04:04all in the opening half against Furman.

04:07The running Rebs won 76 to zip, some would tell me it's more important than a Peach Bowl

04:12victory, but who knows necessarily how that goes.

04:16But Jackson Dart became the first quarterback in FBS college football to throw for more

04:20than 350 yards in a single half since Joe Burrow did so back in 2019, and we all know

04:26how 2019 ended for Joe Burrow in terms of the Heisman Trophy race.

04:32Let's move it down a little bit to the next five best prices to win the Heisman Trophy.

04:36Quinn Ewers, 11 to 1.

04:38Let's move back a little bit in this market, or at least a national consideration, but

04:42three touchdowns, 260 yards, and basically two plus quarters yesterday against Colorado

04:48State.

04:49Nico Iameleava in his first start in Knoxville, more than 300 yards and three touchdowns.

04:55Will Howard has a dangerous offense, wasn't great yesterday against Akron, but Ohio State

05:00does win comfortably with 52 to 6 being the final.

05:04We'll see Garrett Nussmeyer tonight, and Drew Allard now inside the top 10, Kev, with a

05:0825 to 1 price.

05:09Yeah, my thing still with Allard, while I know the game was great against West Virginia,

05:12they played an obviously more threatening competition than a lot of the other guys.

05:16I still don't think his numbers are going to be gaudy enough to hang with these other

05:21guys because I really do believe now with an expanded field, statistical dominance is

05:25going to matter so much, Joe, and that's why those three SEC quarterbacks jump off the

05:29page the way they do.

05:30I agree with you.

05:31In terms of backloading the schedule too, you mentioned Jackson Dart's got to play LSU

05:36in Oxford, in Baton Rouge, and also has to play Alabama and Georgia, so those are teams

05:43that potentially can catapult him, right?

05:45For Drew Allard as well, I sort of equate Drew Allard to Lamar Jackson last year, right?

05:52Everybody knocks everybody off and he's just there because the statistics aren't gaudy,

05:57but his team maybe is tops of the Big Ten because of the schedule.

06:00He might be in the conversation, but I just don't see him having value from the Heisman

06:05perspective.

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