- 11/8/2024
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00:00The second Saturday in the month of November, in the final month of this 2024 college football
00:09season after the unveiling of the first college football playoff rankings, not just this year,
00:15but in the 12 team era of the expanded college football playoffs.
00:19So every game adds on that significance now in the eyes of the selection committee.
00:24And if you want significant, you want the SEC on Saturday.
00:29Let's start late night in Bajan Rouge, a night game in Death Valley, inside Tiger Stadium
00:35is one of the most vaunted atmospheres you will find in the sport.
00:39You know what makes it even scarier for the opposing side?
00:42A live tiger on the sideline, Louisiana's governor is going to reportedly bring in a
00:49live tiger to the game, something the LSU team used to do.
00:53And they have a live tiger on campus, Mike the tiger, but it's not even that tiger again.
00:59It's just the greatness of college football.
01:02It's Alabama, it's LSU, the Crimson Tide, number 11 in the first CFP rankings, LSU barely
01:08staying in the top 15 at 15th overall in the Crimson Tide, Joe, a two and a half point
01:14road favorite in Baton Rouge.
01:16It's an elimination game of sorts.
01:18De facto, even in this new era, both teams already have two losses this year.
01:23We might see a three loss team into the CFP, but you would need some help.
01:28So to keep your season on track, who gets a victory tomorrow night inside live tiger
01:33stadium.
01:35So I don't understand this line at all, uh, because as far as I'm concerned, there is
01:42literally nothing separating these two teams that would warrant Alabama to be laying a
01:49field goal on the road.
01:50So what you're telling me is that this is a Alabama is six points better on a neutral
01:55site, uh, if we're considering two to three points as a home field advantage, like, are
02:00you kidding?
02:01Uh, I don't think so here.
02:02Not to mention, I think there is a serious issue with the books and the lines this year
02:08in the sec.
02:09Why?
02:10Because it's parody people.
02:12And we're not used to seeing that in the sec underdogs in the sec league play guys are
02:1829 and 13 against the number this year in the sec.
02:2129 and 13, the dogs have been cashing left and right.
02:26Why?
02:27Because of parody.
02:29So when all things being equal, if I have a home team like LSU with a track record of
02:35being able to show up at night on their own home field as an underdog, not to mention,
02:40I have Brian Kelly who has been absolute money in this spot over the years, 20 and 11 against
02:47the number with extra time to prepare both these teams off the buy.
02:52He's also 28, 13 and one as an underdog of at least a field goal.
02:56Uh, the wrong team is favorite LSU at home should be the favorite, which means there
03:02is a ton of value with backing LSU in this game.
03:06What a great stat that is in a year of parody in a generational season for teams around
03:11the country and in the sec performing in ways we have not seen in decades, 29 and 13
03:20underdogs in sec action.
03:22That is conference games.
03:24That is huge against the number, Joe.
03:27I think we see some points.
03:29I'm having a tough time getting a read on this game.
03:31LSU's defense was better and then more sell read, ran for 62 yards in the second half
03:37and three scores.
03:38Who also is mobile Jalen Milrow, who ran for more than a hundred last year against
03:43this LSU defense that is better under Blake Baker, but still has some issues in Alabama
03:49did stifle and shut out Missouri.
03:52The last time we saw the crimson tide on a football field two weekends ago, but they
03:57allowed at least 24 in their previous four sec games.
04:02Don't have a great read on that, but that underdog stat in sec conference games this
04:06year, important to note, might it carry over to our next spot that we will go to in the
04:13Grove and another top 20 showdown between Ole Miss and Georgia, the Bulldogs two and
04:19a half point road favorite in Oxford total 55 and a hook to really good defenses on display
04:26inside the Grove on Saturday afternoon.
04:29And yet Joe, here we are again, road team, a slight favorite, less than a field goal.
04:35How do you break it down?
04:36Well, it's, I don't know whether or not they're both play or not, because Lane Kiffin sometimes
04:41is a little goofy like this, but I mean, there's Trey Harris and Jordan Watkins.
04:47They were both listed as doubtful early in the week.
04:50We know that they are running back Henry Parrish won't play, but having Trey Harris and Jordan
04:56Watkins on the outside would be huge for Ole Miss to say the least.
05:01I think this is another one of these where the play just stuck out to me.
05:06It's the most obvious.
05:07How are we getting over 55 and a half points here?
05:10Nobody wants to give this old miss defense, any credit.
05:14And yet they are one of the best havoc wrecking defenses in the country this year.
05:19They show it time and time again, not to mention we got a quarterback who has the yips here
05:26for Georgia.
05:27How many more interceptions is he going to throw over the next couple of weeks?
05:31I think what that's going to force Kirby Smart to do is make this all about time of
05:36possession.
05:37I don't think he's going to have him dropping back Beck at all, causing against this defense.
05:43I think this becomes a one possession game throughout.
05:46I just don't think we're getting over 55 and a half points here, Ben.
05:50I think the defenses are going to be the story in this game.
05:55Georgia's defense has been so much better.
05:57I still think they would have been fine last week against DJ Lagway in Florida.
06:01They do get a bump, of course, from playing Aiden Warner in the Gators team for a good
06:05majority of that.
06:07But to Joe's point, Ole Miss's defense has been elite.
06:11We know who Lane Kiffin and the running Rebs offense does that they run.
06:14They have so many players in a game, which puts added pressure on a defense.
06:19Ole Miss has been on the field for 645 snaps this year.
06:24It's the third most usage a power conference defense has seen.
06:28And they are allowing just 4.4 yards per play.
06:33Every other defense in the country that has been on the field for more than 600 snaps
06:38is allowing at least 4.8 yards per play.
06:42And the running Rebs are the second best rushing defense in all of college football.
06:47And Georgia has struggled to establish the run so far this season.
06:51We've got so many good games to get through.
06:53We will fly around the country up next.
06:56But of course, it's a significant Saturday in the SEC.
07:00There are five undefeated teams at the FBS level left this year entering Week 11.
07:07Miami is one.
07:08Indiana is another.
07:10Army, BYU, and of course, Oregon.
07:14We'll talk about all of those teams up next here on the Early Line on a football Friday
07:20with a preview of the college Saturday slate.
07:22The Miami Hurricanes are a perfect 9-0 for the first time since 2017.
07:28And Miami is a double-digit favorite this weekend in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.
07:34Now, Tech often seen as a very good underdog.
07:37Of course, they won outright in Dublin Week 0 to start the year against Florida State.
07:42They have been a dog three other times since that.
07:44They have not covered the number.
07:46Will Miami continue its role in the ACC, Joe, on Saturday against the Yellow Jackets?
07:53Is Haynes King playing?
07:54Is he not playing?
07:55That's going to be, of course, the big question.
07:58They think he's going to go.
08:00They were hoping he was going to be back.
08:02Quite honestly, I don't think it matters.
08:04I have, I usually break out in hives, and I have been all year long thinking about the
08:08last time Georgia Tech and Miami played.
08:11And I had to watch, instead of Mario Cristobal, tell the Miami quarterback Van Dyke to just
08:17kneel on the ball since the game was over.
08:20They decided to run a play and then fumbled it.
08:22And then Haynes King came back and won that game three plays later.
08:26Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen this game.
08:30But I also don't trust Miami early.
08:33They seem to be playing from behind a lot here, Ben, have you noticed that?
08:36So if I was going to look at Georgia Tech, I would look at Georgia Tech in the first
08:40half, and then I would look for a live betting opportunity to come right back in on Miami
08:46in the second half.
08:47I think that's the way you play these games from here on out with them.
08:50Yeah, I think so as well, Joe.
08:52But the Canes have been really good up front.
08:55One of the better rushing defenses in the country, whether it's Haynes King or Zach
08:59Pyron, I'm not sure it really matters.
09:02But again, it's a double digit spread.
09:04And as a double digit dog entering this year, the B's were seven and three against the number
09:09with Brent Key.
09:11They are now just seven and five A-T-S, the Holy War and the 102nd edition of it.
09:18Saturday night in Salt Lake between BYU and Utah back as conference rivals in state foes
09:25as well.
09:26BYU only ninth, despite a perfect A and O record in the first CFP rankings.
09:32And Joe, this feels like a trappy spot, three point spread in favor of the Cougs.
09:37Utah is not the team we expected entering this year.
09:41Who's playing quarterback?
09:43Anybody's guess is as good as anybody else's.
09:46But Utah is great defensively.
09:48Is BYU on upset alert Saturday night at Rice-Eccles?
09:53Gotta love this one, right?
09:55Could this be the swan song here for Utah and Willingham?
10:00But listen, the points that Utah have scored in the last five games, you ready?
10:0422, 10, 19, 7, and 14.
10:07Now they did make a change at the offensive coordinator position, and they are, they had
10:12a bye week to try to figure this out no matter who the quarterback is.
10:17But because of those low scorings, they've lost four of those five games.
10:21They only beat Oklahoma State barely, and Oklahoma State has lost six in a row.
10:26So I do think BYU's defense is starting to show cracks.
10:29I think teams are starting to figure it out here a little bit.
10:33They've scored against 28, 19, 35, and 24 points again.
10:38So I think Utah at home has a good opportunity to win this game outright.
10:43I think defensively, they'll be able to hold BYU.
10:47This is another one, Ben, where how are we getting points exactly with these two defenses
10:51and these two offenses?
10:52Yeah, I don't know.
10:54Utah under in seven of eight games, Joe.
10:56Let's fly around.
10:57Indiana is perfect, 9-0 to start a season for the first time ever in program history.
11:04Indiana is favored to beat Michigan in a football game for the first time since 1968, and it's
11:10not by a point or a field goal or a touchdown.
11:12Nope.
11:13It's more than two TDs.
11:14IU laying 14 and a half in Bloomington against the reigning national champs, who have certainly
11:20not been that this season.
11:21Joe, how do you see Saturday in Bloomington playing out between Indiana and Michigan?
11:28Yeah, Indiana by a million.
11:30Don't overthink it.
11:31Stop waiting for Indiana to fall all over themselves.
11:35They won't do it.
11:36I like them in the first half as well, Ben.
11:39It's a great look, Joe.
11:40They had not trailed in a game until last week against Michigan State.
11:45They showed their resolve.
11:46They had not given up an opening quarter score since the season opener until last week against
11:51Michigan State.
11:52Indiana, the only team in the country that ranks top 10 in scoring, in total offense,
11:58in scoring, in total defense.
11:59Big 12 bash on Saturday afternoon in Lubbock, Colorado.
12:03Still in the hunt for a Big 12 championship.
12:06Now a four and a half point favorite against Texas Tech.
12:10Are the buffs on upset alert in Lubbock?
12:12Yeah, I think they are, but I also think the over is the best look in this game.
12:18Expect a ton of points from these two offenses.
12:21Yeah, it's going to be very difficult for either side to contain the other.
12:26Lubbock, Colorado, not great against the run, 4.1 yards per pop.
12:30Enter Taj Brooks, who has had at least 109 rushing yards in every single game.
12:34And Texas Tech is the second worst passing defense in the country.
12:38We'll show you the rest of the CFB slate and then pick six next.
12:43Live right here on a football Friday on the early line on Sports Grid.
12:47Before we get to our week 10 pick six and the NFL weekend and our favorite picks and
12:52bets, let's take one final look at other notable week.
12:5511 college football games on this second Saturday in November.
13:00Oregon is the number one team in the CFP rankings.
13:03They have been the number one team in the AP poll for the last three weeks.
13:07In Joe, they look the part of it back inside.
13:10Autzen has a 23 and a half point favorite against Maryland.
13:13Texas laying more than three touchdowns against Florida.
13:16The Gators quarterback situation a little bit precarious.
13:19Penn State hoping to bounce back to Ohio State.
13:23A great favorite, a bad underdog.
13:25It's why the Nittany Lions are laying near two touchdowns against Washington.
13:29A game we all circled early in the year.
13:31Florida State headed to South Bend to take on top ten Notre Dame.
13:35Not anymore, FSU stinks, 25 and a half points spread in favor of the Irish.
13:40How will Ashton Gente add to his Heisman Trophy campaign?
13:44An army looks to stay unbeaten and improve to 9-0 with a tricky one
13:49against a really high powered North Texas offense
13:52led by their quarterback Chandler Morris.
13:56Joe, of all those games, all six on your screen,
13:58which gets your most attention?
14:01Well, I just want to apologize ahead of time
14:04for those UF folks that might be watching right now.
14:08Yeah, don't watch this game against Texas.
14:10It's not going to be pretty.
14:12And Ben, if I'm a Florida State fan, the team blows,
14:16but I can cash a ticket by betting their team total under every week
14:20from here on out, which is exactly what I'm going to do.
14:24Yeah, listen, I bet it already.
14:26It was 13 and a half.
14:27It's now 12 and a half.
14:28I actually took it under 10 and a half because it was a sprinkle of plus money.
14:34If DJ Lagway even plays, he was courted off with a hamstring injury.
14:38They're listing him as questionable.
14:40It was not as severe as they once thought.
14:42You got to be courted off for a hamstring injury.
14:45You're not even nearly 90%, and you're playing a Texas defense
14:49that is still incredibly stout.
14:51If it's Aidan Warner, listen, he's a smart kid, right?
14:54The transfer from Yale with Florida bloodlines in his family,
14:57both his parents were Gators, as we learned on the broadcast
15:00last week in Jacksonville.
15:02It's going to be incredibly difficult.
15:04Total is dropping as well for the game overall.
15:0649 and a half is now 47 and a hook.
15:09I like the total to the over between Oregon and Maryland.
15:14Maryland has played to the over in seven of eight games.
15:16They can't stop anybody in Big Ten play.
15:18Oregon names its number.
15:21And again, Penn State, in the last two years, is 28, 2 and a half years now.
15:2628-1, straight up as a favorite.
15:28The only loss of the Peach Bowl last year against Ole Miss,
15:32as a dog, five times against Ohio State, three, and Michigan twice,
15:36their own five.
15:37But when it's not the Buckeyes or the Wolverines, Penn State's pretty good.
15:41I expect a bounce back.
15:43Army in North Texas, man.
15:44If Bryson Daly plays over, if he doesn't,
15:48you got to worry about the Black Knights in this spot.
15:51Of course, he was ruled out late last week.
15:53Dwayne Coleman led Army to a big victory over Air Force.
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