USA 2024: How will Ukraine react to the election of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

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00:00It's a pleasure to see her in the flesh, Kristina Mrazina from the Atlantic Council.

00:04How are you?

00:05Excellent.

00:06How are you?

00:07All right.

00:08We've been harassing Kristina a lot since February of 2022, when Vladimir Putin launched

00:12his all-out invasion of Ukraine.

00:15When it comes to foreign policy, the whole world is, of course, watching, and in particular

00:22native Ukraine.

00:23Absolutely.

00:24So, it is a really big issue in this election.

00:27How does the foreign policy question get resolved?

00:30In some ways, it's a question about what happens next in Ukraine.

00:33Is there going to be an acceleration towards a ceasefire or a peace negotiation?

00:38Or is there going to be more time for Ukraine to make progress on the battlefield?

00:42And is that going to be a question of months, or are we looking at a question of years?

00:45That's a question probably between Trump and between Harris.

00:47And some are suggesting that even if Kamala Harris wins the election, Congress has in

00:53effect signed its last check for military aid to Ukraine.

00:57Is that your view?

00:58I think that's really hard to say.

00:59In some ways, we get into a different political moment after this election, after today.

01:04Then it comes back to a question of what is the American role, what are American values?

01:07I think it's not impossible for there actually to be more military aid between the middle

01:11of November and the end of the year.

01:13But so much depends on this election.

01:14So much depends upon the decisions that American people make today.

01:18But when I travel around the country, when I talk to Iowan farmers or military service

01:23members or people working on the energy side of things in the Appalachians, a lot of European

01:31issues make sense.

01:32I don't think you can say that there is a red foreign policy or a blue foreign policy.

01:36And I think there's a lot of nuance in the American people.

01:38And so in some ways it's oversimplified in the Washington conversation.

01:42But I think whether you have a Trump or a Harris presidency is going to really also

01:47change what that dynamic is like on the ground.

01:49Is Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, ready for a return of Donald Trump to the

01:54White House?

01:55Should that be the case?

01:56I think so.

01:57I think that perhaps in 2016 there was a surprise with Trump coming into power, but we're not

02:01in 2016.

02:02So Zelensky has a plan.

02:05Because let's listen to what Donald Trump had to say on the campaign trail.

02:13Inflation wouldn't have happened.

02:15Russia-Ukraine wouldn't have happened.

02:17Israel wouldn't have happened.

02:20The October 7th Israel attack would have never happened.

02:23Those people would all be alive.

02:27So he'll sit both sides down on day one, says Donald Trump.

02:32So is Volodymyr Zelensky ready for that?

02:36It's going to affect mean sitting down and conceding territory.

02:40Absolutely.

02:41Sorry.

02:42So there is a real chance that there could be, there needs to be a face-to-face conversation

02:47very soon.

02:48And, but this is not a surprise.

02:50This is something that Ukrainians and Europeans have been thinking about for the last few

02:53months.

02:54The fact that the reality as it is in the middle of November, it might be the military

02:57reality that is the reality that is dealt with around a negotiation table has been clear.

03:02The question is what are the political options on the table?

03:05And that's why I think when you look at Zelensky's police plan, the question of NATO is so important

03:09there, right?

03:10There's a military reality and there's a political menu.

03:13And everyone going into this election from the European side, from the Ukrainian side

03:18is aware of who they might have to deal with.

03:22And that's why the having an expansive lift and list and a high lift of what things that

03:27Ukrainians might want has been put out there.

03:31And the Ukrainians will have to advocate for themselves as much as possible.

03:34This Tuesday's election day in the United States, this Thursday, there's a European

03:38Council summit.

03:39And it's a tradition that every six months there's a new country that's the rotating

03:44chair of the European Council.

03:46This time it happens to be the most pro-Trump of the 27 members of the bloc, Hungary.

03:51It'll be taking place in Budapest.

03:56What are going to be the optics come Thursday if we're still in this position of indecision

04:02where we don't know who's winning?

04:04And Viktor Orban congratulates Donald Trump.

04:06Will that just be a bit of political theatre?

04:10I think we can expect there to be lots of warm words from Viktor Orban towards Trump,

04:15whether or not he is up or undecided or down.

04:18That is a relationship that has been steady throughout the past few years.

04:23And so that is an expectation.

04:25I think there's going to be a lot of caution from other European leaders if we don't know

04:28exactly who is up or who is down in the polls.

04:32But again, just because there's a rotating presidency and just because Orban has the

04:35floor, I think there's not much of a sense that he speaks on behalf of all of Europe.

04:39He is an individual on the European political scene.

04:44And I don't think there will be a misunderstanding on the American side should he say something

04:47that is not in line with what the other leaders say.

04:50And Christina, finally asking for a friend, France has right now kind of a hung parliament

04:57situation.

04:58We're probably going to have another snap election at some point soon.

05:02The national rally, which is also pro-Trump, the far-right party, is tipped to make yet

05:08more gains.

05:10Again, the result here, how much does that weigh on European politics?

05:16Europe is going to have to deal with a different United States after the next few months, whether

05:21that's a Trump United States or a Harris United States.

05:23It's hard to say.

05:24In either way, the responsibility for Europe to do more for its own security and defense

05:29and to show the fact that it is investing in developing its economy and its security

05:33and defense is going to be very important.

05:35It really doesn't matter whether that is Trump or that is Harris.

05:38The notion that the shifting of ambition on security has to happen to Europe no matter

05:45what, and whether that's rally or someone else on the French side, also doesn't necessarily

05:49matter.

05:50Someone is going to have to protect Europe.

05:53The Americans are there.

05:54The Americans are going to continue to be there in some form.

05:57The fact that there is ever more pressure for Europeans to do more, for France to do

06:00more for itself, whoever is in charge, is going to exist.

06:03All right.

06:04Cristina Brzezina, thank you so much for joining us.

06:06Thank you so much.

06:07Great to see you.

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