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US presidential election: What are the concerns on the global stage?
FRANCE 24 English
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11/5/2024
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00:00
This election will of course resonate and have consequences for the rest of the world
00:05
depending on who wins.
00:07
Can you tell us what potential concerns each candidate carries when it comes to the global
00:11
stage?
00:14
Well, we've seen a radically different approach to the world.
00:20
And for that, I want to bring in Leo Michel from the Atlantic Council, formerly who's
00:26
worked at U.S. Defense Secretary's offices, worked for NATO.
00:30
Thanks for being with us here on France 24.
00:32
It's a pleasure to be here.
00:34
The question put to us is about these two radically world views.
00:38
The United States, for all the talk of decline, still remains the world's predominant superpower.
00:45
How radical is the choice when it comes to foreign policy?
00:49
I think it's pretty significant.
00:50
In the area where I've spent most of my professional career, and mostly in the Department of Defense,
00:57
I've worked a lot on issues concerning the former Soviet Union and Russia in the area
01:02
of arms control.
01:04
And then the last 15 years or so, really focusing on our defense relationship with Europe.
01:10
And the difference could not be more clear.
01:13
Part of that is not the fault of the United States.
01:17
We have, with the all-out invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin, a return to this East versus
01:24
West dichotomy.
01:27
Has the West forgotten that language of deterrence, and have these candidates, are they aware
01:32
of how to speak to the rest of the world?
01:36
I think Vice President Harris is.
01:38
And I've seen this not only in speeches, but in comments that she's made, in interviews
01:45
and so forth, where it's not so pre-planned.
01:49
And she's coming at this from a position where she was not apparently a major influence on
01:55
President Biden's foreign policy, but he had such a long CV, if you will, of experience
02:02
dealing with European defense issues, and in particular NATO, that would have been difficult
02:10
to match.
02:11
But still, I think that she's someone who appreciates and understands the value, the
02:16
importance of the alliance.
02:17
And this is not a gift to Europeans.
02:20
How different is she from him?
02:22
From Biden?
02:23
Yes.
02:25
I think it's a question of how long have her associations taken place.
02:30
And Biden really has an amazing personal network that he could have.
02:36
He spent the last couple of years of the Obama administration doing a lot of specific
02:41
work on Ukraine, encouraging them to fight corruption, to strengthen their democracy,
02:48
and sometimes in some rough language.
02:50
He's very, very active, very knowledgeable about the Balkans as well.
02:55
And these are areas where you simply can't, overnight, kind of pick up expertise.
03:02
But I'm convinced, at least, from her interactions that I've seen with Europeans, her presence
03:07
at the Munich Security Conference, and the way she worked even with Zelensky a couple
03:15
days before the Russian invasion in February 2022 to let him know that this is for real,
03:21
this is coming.
03:22
Those are not jobs that you give to a second-rate person.
03:25
So you're suggesting she's got all the competence needed, but is she different from Biden?
03:32
I don't think she will be, although I will say that, for example, in the case of Ukraine,
03:38
the president has been, at times, cautious about trying to find this right balance between
03:44
supporting Ukrainian independence and territorial sovereignty and increasing the military support
03:50
for them, while being careful not to be in the position where he could somehow end up
03:57
having a direct U.S.-Russian military confrontation.
04:01
And I understand that, but it's a difficult choice.
04:04
What we don't know, and it's difficult to predict now, is whether or not Kamala Harris,
04:10
if elected, will make the same balance of risk and benefit in terms of the details of
04:16
her policy.
04:17
But I have no doubt that she's someone who understands the long-term threat that Russia
04:21
poses.
04:22
That balance that we're talking about, just be noted, it's not just a presidential election
04:30
today.
04:31
There's also all kinds of issues on the ballot, including re-electing one-third of the Senate
04:36
and the whole of the Congress.
04:38
The last time they gave $50 billion for military aid to Ukraine.
04:43
Some saying even if Kamala Harris is elected president, that was the last check signed
04:47
by Washington when it comes to Ukraine.
04:50
I doubt that, but it will depend in part on the results of the election.
04:53
I don't think, in fact, I'm pretty confident if re-elected, Donald Trump is not going to
05:01
be a strong proponent of military assistance to Ukraine.
05:06
And we shouldn't forget that, I believe it was June or July of 2023, at a campaign rally,
05:13
he threatened fellow Republicans.
05:15
He said, do not vote one penny for military assistance to Ukraine, or I will support a
05:21
primary candidate before you.
05:23
And he didn't link that at all to the strategic situation in Ukraine.
05:27
He linked it to his charge that the FBI and CIA were withholding embarrassing information
05:34
about Hunter Biden.
05:36
I mean, this is, I won't even go into the details.
05:41
I'll simply recall that in 2019, the reason for his impeachment, his first of two impeachments,
05:48
was that he wanted to withhold offensive or defensive military arms, Javelin missiles
05:55
from Ukraine until Zelensky, as he said in the transcript, which was public, made public,
06:03
I want you to do a favor for me first.
06:04
And that was a political favor to open an investigation of Hunter Biden.
06:09
Okay, so Trump's worldview tainted by personal grievances.
06:15
But what about those around him?
06:16
The former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been touted as a possible defense secretary
06:22
should Trump return to the White House.
06:25
Are they all nativists?
06:26
Are they all isolationists?
06:27
Are they all for signing a deal with Putin on day one?
06:31
I don't know.
06:32
Now, there are some hints in that direction.
06:34
Before I go where the hints are, I would like to point out that this is unprecedented to
06:39
have so many senior, retired senior generals and diplomats, including five or six of his
06:45
closest, Mr. Trump's closest defense advisors, two of his defense secretaries, two of his
06:52
national security advisors, and even his chief of staff, who was himself a retired general,
06:58
come out and say that Trump essentially does not understand and value alliances.
07:03
And that was a major reason for their clash.
07:06
So that's the past.
07:09
I think there will be a strong inclination on the part of Mr. Trump, if reelected, to
07:14
pick people that are not going to say no to him.
07:17
What will that do to the United States?
07:19
What will it do to the Pax Americana, the world order we've seen since World War II?
07:25
I think it increases the risk that we will be seen as a power that's in decline, obsessed
07:34
with our, preoccupied with our domestic chaos.
07:38
One of the reasons that we've seen this uptick recently in Russian and apparently Iranian
07:44
disinformation on social networks is, I think, to create exactly that.
07:48
And it's incredible that an American oligarch, Elon Musk, seems to be perfectly willing to
07:55
lend his social network to that effort.
07:59
So there's a question of American hard power that we have to face.
08:03
There's been very little discussion of what should our defense budget be like in the future.
08:12
How should we apportion that, the priorities?
08:14
And that's a shame.
08:15
But there's been virtually no discussion at all, at least from the Republican side, on
08:20
what does this do for American soft power?
08:22
I wonder what American soft power is going to look like if some of the domestic policies
08:26
that Mr. Trump is proposing, like rounding up 10 to 15 million undocumented migrants
08:36
in the United States and putting them in camps and deporting them.
08:41
What's that going to look like for American democracy, for the values that we hold dear,
08:47
even though if we implement them imperfectly?
08:49
All right.
08:50
Louis Michel, I want to thank you so much for joining us here on Franco.
08:53
Thank you very much.
08:54
There you have it, Charlie, the worry from somebody who is a man with a foot on both
09:02
sides of the Atlantic at this, the midway point of voting on Election Day.
09:08
Francois, thanks so much for that.
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