US presidential election: Voter turnout crucial in battleground states, expert says

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00:00Well, to help us make sensible that, we can bring in Brian Smith, Professor of Political

00:04Science at St. Edward's University.

00:07Thank you so much for joining us here on France 24.

00:10First of all, for the viewers that may not be familiar with the Electoral College system,

00:14help us understand how it works and why it determines the presidency.

00:17Well, first, thank you for having me.

00:20But the Electoral College is a vestige of the original Constitution.

00:25We've never gotten rid of it.

00:26What it does is it enables the states to select the president and not the actual people.

00:32And the Electoral College, right now, we have 538 electoral votes spread across the states.

00:38You need 270 to win.

00:40And most states use winner-take-all.

00:43So the candidate that's able to gather 270 electoral votes from the states is going to

00:49be the next president.

00:52Obviously on the swing states, but why are these battleground states so crucial and which

00:57states are you keeping an eye on?

01:00The battleground states are so crucial because of that winner-take-all aspect.

01:04You win a state like Pennsylvania or Georgia by a single vote, then you get all the electoral

01:09votes from that state.

01:11There's no proportional representation.

01:13There's no second round.

01:14So the key states are the ones that former President Trump and Vice President Harris

01:19are going to.

01:20Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia.

01:24And if you have time, you go out to Arizona.

01:27And will it all come down to turnout, in your opinion?

01:31It is definitely about turnout because you just need to win that state by a single vote.

01:36We're seeing the Democrats trying to get George W. Bush to come back out and endorse Vice

01:42President Harris.

01:43They hated him 12 years ago.

01:45They're just trying to maximize their vote.

01:47And the Republicans are doing the same, trying to find that last single voter.

01:51And for this reason, if the race is as close as we think, we'll wake up on Wednesday not

01:55knowing who's the president.

01:58And are there any trends that stand out in this cycle versus the previous election?

02:02Well, when we look at it, it is almost identical as 2016 and 2020 regarding the states that

02:09matter most.

02:11We haven't seen a lot of change.

02:12We haven't seen a lot of shift.

02:14So those states that really tipped the election for 2016 and then again in 2020 for Joe Biden,

02:21those are the ones at play.

02:23The candidates know the states and they know, don't go to California now, spend your time

02:28in places like Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and the Michigan suburbs.

02:33And now this election is not just a race for the White House, but also for the House and

02:37the Senate as well, isn't it?

02:39It is because whomever becomes president doesn't have a blank check.

02:44We know the House and Senate are extremely close and if you get a Democratic president

02:48and Republican Congress, it's going to stop any legislation.

02:52Similarly, if it's flipped around.

02:54So the local elections, your House races, your Senate races are just as important, especially

03:00if your presidential candidate loses.

03:04And lastly, what are you keeping an eye on in this election?

03:09I'm keeping an eye on the polls.

03:10The polls could be one of three things.

03:12One, they underestimate Trump.

03:14They've done that before.

03:15Two, they overestimate Trump.

03:17That happened in 2022.

03:19Or three, they're as close as they say, if the polls are as close as they say, there's

03:24going to be a lot of lawsuits.

03:25It's going to be a real, real long Tuesday night and well into several days afterwards.

03:30It's going to be a long Tuesday night indeed.

03:33Thank you so much, Brian Smith from St. Edwards University.

03:35We appreciate your time speaking to us.

03:38Thank you for having me.

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