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Week Ahead 04/11/2024 – More anticyclonic gloom?
Met Office
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04/11/2024
This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the week ahead 04/11/2024.
High pressure continues to dominate the weather across the UK but will anything shift the anticyclonic gloom?
Bringing you this weekend’s weather forecast is Aidan McGivern
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Transcript
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00:00
Hi there, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the week ahead. High pressure has brought
00:04
us a prolonged settle spell during the past week, but over the next week as that high
00:09
pressure remains close, the question is will it bring us any sunshine? The high is moving
00:14
to the east, we've got more of a southerly airflow, but we've still got the jet stream
00:19
pushing well to the north of the UK, directing the more unsettled Atlantic weather away from
00:24
the UK for the time being. So, widely settled on Tuesday, but that doesn't necessarily mean
00:29
sunny skies, a lot of low cloud once again covering the UK, one or two exceptions, parts
00:34
of north Wales, northern Scotland, and perhaps later on a few cloud breaks developing in
00:39
the south and south east. Otherwise, it's grey skies once again, a few spots of drizzle
00:43
in the west, a bit of a breeze in the west as well, that breeze coming from the south
00:48
providing mild air, 13 or 14, even 15 in the south. A little bit fresher for northern Scotland,
00:55
but nevertheless, it is settled, end to the day. So, if you're heading out to view fireworks,
01:02
bonfire evenings, looking calm and settled, fairly straightforward, one or two cloud breaks
01:07
possible. Otherwise, generally cloudy skies, a few light showers in the west perhaps, drizzly
01:12
rain here and there, especially over western hills, most places though dry, a bit more
01:17
of a breeze in the west of Scotland, some showery rain turning up later. The most reliable
01:22
clear skies, north east Scotland where temperatures will fall away after dark. But otherwise,
01:28
for the vast majority, high pressure clings on. And ahead of this cold front that's bringing
01:32
the showery rain, actually, temperatures rise because we've got this warm air coming up
01:37
from the south. So, it's a remarkably mild start to Wednesday, but it could be a very
01:42
gloomy start. We've got the bonfire smoke, we've got the potential for clear spells overnight,
01:47
warming fog in places. All of that could lead to some persistent mist and fog across
01:52
southern areas in particular, first thing Wednesday. Again, there'll be some cloud breaks,
01:56
west Wales for example, north east England, more reliably northern Scotland as the cloud
02:00
breaks up over the hills to the south. But it is a mild day, mid-teens in many places.
02:06
Thursday starts off similar, mild but gloomy. Some persistent fog, could last all day in
02:11
one or two spots because it is November, the sun is weak. But otherwise, it's overcast
02:17
skies, a few spots of drizzle here and there, especially in the west. Again, northern Scotland
02:21
favoured for cloud breaks and remarkable temperatures could be 15, 16 or even higher in some parts
02:27
of, say, the Moray Coast because of the wind warming up and drying out over the hills to
02:32
the south. Higher pressure stays to the east as we go into Friday, but a weather front
02:36
does tend to sneak in from the west and that's going to bring about a change for northern
02:41
Ireland through the day and then later other western fringes of the UK. Increasingly breezy,
02:47
outbreaks of rain moving in during the morning, turning heavy at times by lunchtime. Those
02:52
outbreaks of rain, fairly showery in nature, reaching western Scotland and west Wales.
02:55
Drier to the east, some clear spells for north east Scotland, north east England once again.
03:00
But it's a wet end to the day for western and central Scotland, north west England.
03:04
These are the kinds of rainfall totals we're talking about through Friday, 15, 20 mils
03:09
or so in some of the wetter spots, perhaps up to 30. But nothing of huge concern, it's
03:14
just a change compared with the last week or so. A few spots heading into the south
03:19
as well, but this front is weakening as it runs into higher pressure. It then swings
03:24
away. What it does do is it allows clearer skies, fresher air to come into the north
03:28
and west, so a better chance of sunshine across northern Ireland, Scotland and parts of northern
03:33
England on Saturday. Cloudier skies further south and south east and a few spots of rain
03:38
as the front clears away. Then, another weather front turns up later in the day on Saturday,
03:44
so effectively a repeat with some rain moving into the north west, weakening as it crosses
03:49
the country. There are some question marks though about this low pressure attached to
03:53
the weather front and how close it will get to the north west of Scotland, how many isobars
03:58
will be attached to it and it could bring a windy spell in the far north west on Saturday
04:02
night going into Sunday. Either way, once that system is through, it does follow the
04:06
jet stream to the north of the UK, so nothing widely unsettled. And then it does move through
04:12
and for the start of next week, high pressure builds back in, so yeah, effectively next
04:18
week more of the same. Lots of low cloud, some mist and fog in places.
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