“These are contradictory elections”

teleSUR English

On the importance of the elections in Paraguay, where the president will be elected and also certain articles of the constitution will be submitted, teleSUR talks to international analyst Arnold August. teleSUR

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00:00We are now joined by international analyst Arnold August to talk more on the ongoing

00:04election day in Uruguay.

00:05Welcome, Arnold, to From the South.

00:08It's a pleasure for me to be with you once again.

00:11It's our pleasure to have you.

00:13Arnold, Uruguay is going to the polls.

00:15They are deciding between the current ruling government coalition or if the broad front

00:20of the leftist side will return to power.

00:23What's at stake in this election?

00:26Well, firstly, the elections, I think it's important for the listeners to take into account

00:32that one aspect is different from what we are used to, for example, United States, Canada

00:38and other Western countries, and the voting in Uruguay is obligatory.

00:44People have to vote.

00:46On the other hand, another important aspect of the voting that is taking place today is

00:53on a referendum, two important articles to reform the constitution.

01:00Those, on the other hand, this vote is not obligatory.

01:04So people may vote only, for example, for the presidency and the legislature, but not

01:10vote on the constitution.

01:12So this is an important elections and there's a lot of controversy, of course, with regards

01:18to who is going to win.

01:21People are anxious from, you know, many parts of the world, including in the West and Latin

01:27America that finally the Frente Amplia or the United Front of Pepe, that it will come

01:36into power once again, and people are hopeful for that.

01:41So that is an important thing to take into account.

01:44But I think what is also making the headlines and rightly so is not so much the elections

01:50for the president as such, but also the reform of the constitution for the new pension plan.

01:58Now what happened there is very interesting and the outcome could be very significant

02:04for that country and even rebound into other countries in Latin America.

02:08The trade unions in Uruguay made a proposal to overturn the government, the conservative

02:16government's plan for the pension plan, and they are now proposing as a referendum, in

02:24the referendum, as an amendment to the constitution that the retirement age be brought down once

02:34again from 65 to 60.

02:37And secondly, very important, the actual amount that is given to the pensioners will be tied

02:46to the minimum wage.

02:47And thirdly, very important, they are going to outlaw the role of private venture funds,

02:54I guess, in this pension, which is very important.

02:57However, the controversy is this, in Uruguay, the whole status quo, the whole establishment

03:04opposes that, including the Frente Amplia, including the left-wing United Front.

03:11The only ones who seem to be in favor of it is the union and the population in the

03:16base.

03:17That is why some experts are saying this is serious.

03:22If it goes through, it will mean a debt of $1.5 billion for Uruguay, which, according

03:30to financial experts, will be a very, very heavy burden and an almost impossible task

03:39to confront.

03:40Thus, people are talking about, if people vote yes, it will be Uruguay's Brexit moment,

03:45in the sense that Uruguay will be breaking with the surrounding financial institutions

03:51because they will not be able to pay a $6.5 billion debt to assure the new pension plan.

04:00They're also reforming, they're also on the reform, as you were saying, they were voting

04:05on two other reforms.

04:06They are talking about the night raids that are being promoted by the ruling government.

04:11How can this other reform, as you were explaining the first one, how can the second impact the

04:16results of the elections?

04:18Well, I think perhaps it's less controversial.

04:22I think that perhaps there's more of a consensus on that.

04:26This came about, the nighttime raids came about, imposed by the previous government,

04:31I believe, as a result of the growing cocaine trade in Uruguay, fostered by neighboring

04:39countries, and the result of this, as happens in every country in Latin America.

04:45When you say drugs, you have violence, you have mob rule, and a lot of such civil disobedience

04:53and violence, and that is why it is now being proposed that the night raids are able to

05:03take place in order to try to stem the recurring violence that is taking place as a result

05:12of the gang violence and drug cartel activity.

05:18As you were saying at the very beginning, voting is different in Uruguay.

05:21Voting in the country is mandatory, but there is also no consular voting.

05:25People cannot vote from abroad.

05:27They have to travel to Uruguay, although in this case it's not mandatory.

05:30How can that vote from abroad impact the voting inside the country in terms of results?

05:35Well, quite frankly, I'm not too familiar with the diaspora of Uruguay outside of the

05:43country, so I really cannot tell you how that will affect the vote.

05:48Normally, from previous experience, I cannot make a blanket statement, but normally people

05:53outside a country such as Uruguay, if they are exiled as a result of right-wing policies,

06:00they would be voting in favor of a left-wing government, the United Front, and perhaps

06:06take a position with the trade union's position on the reform of the pension plan.

06:16I think it's very difficult to say how that will affect the overall election results for

06:21the presidency.

06:22I know it's very early still to be talking about results.

06:26Most polls are expecting a second round later in November between the top two contenders

06:32in this first round of voting, but if Hoover wins at the end of the presidential office,

06:37what is the main problem that they will have to tackle once they are in office for Uruguay?

06:42Would you say yes?

06:43We'll be watching the election this evening, and almost certainly, 99 percent for sure,

06:49no single candidate will have more than 50 percent, and thus there will be a runoff vote,

06:56a runoff election on November 24th, just next month.

07:01And well, you know, the question is very good.

07:05If the vote goes through to amend the Constitution to have that new pension plan with the

07:12cost of $1.5 billion, whoever wins it, they're going to have a big problem on their hands

07:18to try to deal with this problem.

07:20And this, if it passes, irrespective, if the referendum passes, irrespective of who is

07:28at the head of the government trying to deal, administer this new law, which is so expensive,

07:36irrespective of who it is, they're going to have a big job on their hands in order to

07:39try to, you know, apply the will of the people to change the referendum, change the pension

07:47plan so the situation is far better for the pensioners, but that will be their main problem.

07:54However, if the pension plan does not work, if the majority do not approve the change

08:01in the pension plan, their job will be far easier.

08:05They will be able to deal with many problems facing the society, such as inflation, et cetera.

08:12Thank you, Arnold, as always, for your inputs here in From the South.

08:16You're welcome.

08:18Thank you for having me.

08:19It was our pleasure, as always.

08:20That was Arnold August, internationalist, speaking to us here in From the South on the

08:25current general elections in Uruguay.

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