“This is one of the most important elections in U.S. history”

teleSUR English

Regarding the presidential elections taking place today in the United States, teleSUR had an exclusive interview with Juan Carlos Valero, political analyst. teleSUR

Transcript

00:00We are now joined from the south here with Juan Carlos Valares, the chair of the International

00:06Department at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Ecuador.

00:10Welcome Juan Carlos from the south.

00:13Thank you very much.

00:14It's a pleasure to have you.

00:15Juan Carlos, first question.

00:18Yesterday was the last day of campaigning for both of the main candidates, Donald Trump

00:21and Kamala Harris.

00:22As polls are opening across the nation, what impact can those last day of rally have in

00:29the outcome of this election?

00:31Well, I think it's very important to notice that both candidates are appealing to their

00:38target vote.

00:40In the case of Kamala Harris, I think she has more of a chance to appeal the Latino

00:45vote in the sense that she's proposed policies that are not as hard or restrictive as Donald

00:52Trump's.

00:53At the same time, Donald Trump seems to be addressing the issue of migration as one of

00:58the most important elements of his platform by taking an approach that's very condemning

01:05of the situation.

01:08Can we expect, because we have been seeing coming into the days people have been preparing

01:11and people have had a higher turnout in early voting in these elections, are people concerned

01:17that they could be balanced during this electoral process?

01:20Well, I think this is considered to be one of the most important elections in the United

01:26States and for the United States in the world, since we are faced with two very opposing

01:33views of presidency.

01:36On the one hand, we have a very radical and predictable Donald Trump that in a way scares

01:44a lot of the markets, a lot of the governments, even though he has support of Latin American

01:51governments such as Millet or the Bolsonaro supporters.

01:57However, I think Al Harris in that sense brings more of a certainty or at least more establishment

02:05following and in that aspect, I think it's more reassuring in a way that the last days

02:13of campaign have shown how volatile the speech has become, especially with Donald Trump.

02:21Taking into consideration the global context of the different crises, especially of violence,

02:25of war, of aggression, like in the Middle East, what impact can foreign policy of the

02:30U.S. have depending on the outcome of these elections?

02:36It's a very interesting question because I think it depends on the topic we're talking about.

02:41When it comes to trade, I think the markets and especially big corporations put their

02:47hope more in Trump since he has more of a bilateral and transactional relation with

02:55their partners.

02:56At the same time, when talking about war or security, even though both candidates have

03:05expressed that they will have a hard take on situations that involve the United States'

03:14interests, I think in that aspect Kamala Harris has more of a multilateral approach.

03:20We should expect continuation in terms of approaching multilateral forum and trying

03:28to negotiate with their strategic partners, the European Union.

03:35It's also interesting when we talk about China, for instance, to see that both candidates

03:40have an approach where they want to stop China's increase in terms of the world's economy.

03:47That's something that we should see regardless of who wins.

03:50Now, when it comes to the approach on wars, we've heard Donald Trump with a very drastic

03:59speech as to how to stop wars, but he hasn't really said how he would do it.

04:04That is related to the unpredictability that I was referring to before, whereas in the

04:08case of Harris, she is in a dilemma, especially regarding the war on Gaza, the Israeli intervention

04:17on Palestine, because at the beginning, she started by aligning with Israel and defending

04:24the position of the United States on Israel, but as we see with the Muslim vote also being

04:30into consideration a key aspect for the election, Harris has shifted a little bit into the element

04:40of also stopping the war in order to protect human rights in Gaza.

04:46Migration and border control is also another topic where both candidates have different

04:50views.

04:51How can this impact on the vote during the day?

04:56I think migration, you've talked about the most spoken issue for the audience in the

05:04United States.

05:06The American society is very concerned about the topic of migration, and the way they've

05:11approached it also differs depending on the candidate.

05:15For instance, in the case of Trump, he continues with his 2016 speech and approach on having

05:23a harsh policy regarding migration, whereas Harris, even though aligns with Trump in terms

05:29of strengthening the border patrols and the controls at the border, has had more of a

05:40cooperative approach when it comes to also talking with the Latin American countries,

05:45especially with Mexico, since it's the biggest migration that we've seen in the last decades,

05:51in order to also cooperate in terms of how these migrants cross the border.

05:58I think it's very important also to emphasize the fact that the Latin vote in the United

06:04States, even though it has historically been in favor of the Democratic Party, it has now

06:11had a tendency, depending on the state, like Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, to increase favoring

06:19the Republican Party.

06:21And that's something that says a lot as well, because when we talk about the Latin community

06:26in the United States, whether it is first, second, third generation of Latin people,

06:32we're going to see there a shift in terms of their tendency of who to vote for, right?

06:38I consider that regardless of who wins, we're going to see more of a policy that, in order

06:45to satisfy the American society, will have a strong take on the issue of migration.

06:52One last question, Juan Carlos.

06:54In your opinion, could we possibly expect a shift in direction in terms of strategies

06:59of the U.S. foreign policy towards, for example, Cuba and Venezuela and other nations in terms

07:03of the international sanctions and the coercive measures that are imposed against these nations

07:08and others in the region and in other parts of the world?

07:13I think yes.

07:15They do differ, depending on whether it is Trump or Harris.

07:18Let's remember that during the Democratic presidency of Obama, the relations with Cuba

07:25started taking a shift towards the traditional isolationist and imposing sanctions approach

07:31of the United States regarding Cuba.

07:33However, when Trump was in the presidency, he totally erased those efforts and went back

07:41to a very strict and impulsive sanctions approach, both to Cuba and Venezuela.

07:47It's interesting to see how, after the elections, the very controversial elections that took

07:53place in Venezuela, Harris stated that there should be a showing of the polling records

08:04from the Venezuelan government in order to be recognized, a thing which we know has not

08:10happened.

08:11However, in the case of Donald Trump, he hasn't really stated much about these countries.

08:17However, it is expected that he will take a hard-line approach regarding the countries

08:22considered to be leftist in this aspect, Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela.

08:30We've heard comments of Donald Trump calling all of the leaders from these countries dictators,

08:36and that's something that tells us a lot about what the approach would be should Donald Trump

08:42win the election.

08:43Thank you, Juan Carlos, for your times and inputs here from the South.

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