Notre Dame vs. Stanford: Key Matchup and Betting Tips

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00:00We go to 11th ranked Notre Dame, a 22.5 point home favorite today in South Bend against

00:10Stanford.

00:11And Kev, we start with you, 45.5 is the total for this matchup.

00:17Notre Dame's only blemish this year is playing the Mac.

00:20They are 1-1 straight up and 0-2 against the spread.

00:24They're 3-0 ATS in their three games against non-Mac opponents.

00:29Does that continue today against the Cardinal?

00:31Leave me alone, man.

00:35You know what's kind of driving me nuts?

00:37If they didn't lose to Northern Illinois, they'd be ranked third in the country.

00:43Third is where, they were fifth going into the game against Northern Illinois.

00:49They're ranked 11th.

00:52We'll see how it plays out.

00:53It's a really good spot for Notre Dame.

00:56Freeman is 2-0 against the number off of a bye with an eight point win and a neutral

01:00against BYU.

01:01And then last year they obliterated, I think it was Pitt, 58-7.

01:06I look at Stanford so far, secondary is tragic.

01:10They've allowed at least 200 passing yards to every opposing quarterback as well as two

01:13passing touchdowns.

01:15That's where I went.

01:16Give me Riley Leonard-Leesey for two plus passing touchdowns, plus 165 through two against

01:20Louisville and all three of his passing touchdowns in some of his last two games.

01:26Riley Leonard is starting to come on for Notre Dame.

01:27He's going to need to come on today because to your point about the weakness of the Stanford

01:31defense, 270 allowed in regards to the back end.

01:34They've allowed 11 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks and 71% completion percentage.

01:39So Riley Leonard should have a big game in regards to the offensive philosophy.

01:43I flip-flopped in regards to, I could see Notre Dame covering this line.

01:47It wouldn't shock me if Stanford covered it in regards to a backdoor.

01:50I think there's no doubt Notre Dame wins.

01:52They've won four of the last five in the series.

01:54Last time they played though, Stanford gets the 16 to 14 win in South Bend.

01:59Here's the other factor as well, and I'm going contrarian.

02:02Notre Dame's defense lights out secondary.

02:05They've only given up guys, 805 passing yards per game.

02:09They're holding opposing quarterbacks, 47% completion percentage.

02:13We know Ashton Daniels is banged up.

02:16Justin Lamson came in 54% last week against Virginia Tech.

02:20I'm going to take a shot that it's a big breakout game for Riley Leonard.

02:23You have to get them involved in regards to the passing attack if you have big

02:27picture, big hopes and goals.

02:29This is the defense to do it.

02:31I lean to Notre Dame, but I'm taking the over 45 and a half.

02:35So that's an interesting component for me.

02:37This almost feels like one of those sleepy home spots under Marcus Freeman,

02:42where the Irish have not been great, 6-7 and 2 against the spread at home

02:47with Marcus Freeman as the head coach.

02:50And Riley Leonard in all five games for the fighting Irish this year,

02:53163 passing yards.

02:55That's it or less.

02:57Only three touchdowns to two interceptions.

02:59Now, he has been sensational.

03:01He scored in four straight.

03:02He's got seven rushing touchdowns this year.

03:05He has rushed for 52 yards in all four wins for Notre Dame this season.

03:10But Stanford is atrocious defending the pass.

03:12They were the worst power four passing defense in the country last year.

03:16They're the second worst in the ACC, giving up more than 270 this year.

03:21They're decent defending the run.

03:2211th best in the country, allowing less than 88 yards per game.

03:26We shall see.

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