Notre Dame vs. Louisville: Analysis of 6.5 Point Spread

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00:0016th ranked Notre Dame post number 15 Louisville six and a

00:10half points spread Lee's the guy in favor of the fighting

00:13Irish. Kev, you love to do that spread math. Year over year.

00:16Yeah. It's the exact same number but in a different spot.

00:20Last year, it was Notre Dame. Close loss to Ohio State two

00:23weeks prior. The dramatic comeback victory over their now

00:27quarterback Riley Leonard and Duke on the road in Durham

00:30having a go on the road to Louisville. The season saved

00:33a week ago for Notre Dame only to lose Kev outright by two

00:37scores as that six and a half point road touchdown favorite

00:41in Louisville. Same number but now we flip venue. How do you

00:45feel about this game? Well, I think it's a great point that

00:46you bring up and I think that's why Notre Dame looks like the

00:49side to me at six and a half because I think the Irish that

00:53went to Louisville last year was maybe a worse version

00:56certainly projected than this year's team and I think this

00:59year's Louisville isn't projected as favorably as last

01:02year's Cardinals group that was in the ACC championship game.

01:06The hesitation for me is trying to figure out are the spoiler

01:10makers a thing because that's what Purdue are. Is that is that

01:13a Jeff from thing like it's just something to consider as

01:16Purdue looks like maybe the worst team in the entire Big

01:19Ten early season. So I backed off the side a little bit here.

01:23I will mention Marcus Freeman for somebody who called for his

01:27job and I'm not sure he's off the hook in my eyes at home

01:31against the ranked opponent Reno against the number of a

01:35loss that never should happen to Ohio State and routes of USC

01:39and Clemson again more reason to feel good about the Irish. I

01:42went for a by low spot on Riley Leonard over 160 and a half

01:45passing yards here. Joe look, he's not that he's cleared it

01:47with a lot of consistency, but a few explosive plays could be

01:51out there tonight against the Louisville team and a lot over

01:53300 yards to Haynes King who isn't really even a past first

01:57quarterback. It's a good point again. I just look at this

02:00match up where Jeff Brown is an offensive mind better game

02:04planner in regards to the offensive side of the ball and

02:06we know Marcus Freeman, you know a dominant defensive mind

02:09right what probably wants to win this game. I would say 20

02:13to 13. Let's get out of Dodge the way he did against Texas

02:16A and M two concerns for me and again, I still think when you

02:19look at Tyler shock, he's been turnover prone in recent years

02:23with Texas Tech in Oregon. This year is eight touchdowns. No

02:26interceptions playing well lethal offense averaging 305

02:30yards per game through the air and they're converting in

02:33regards to consistent third downs and their secondary is

02:36only given up Gavin one passing touchdown. So obviously in

02:39order to win this game, Alex would you looks good to last

02:43week for you. I mean, that's the danger man. The danger man

02:47shows up whenever he wants. You can make the similarity

02:51between the danger man and Riley Leonard. That's his first

02:54touchdown. Way to bail out the boys. That's it. Well done. So

02:57that is the concern for me. Riley Leonard with the passing

03:00attack. If if he gets to Kevin's point over that 160 and

03:04that offense is running and throwing. Yeah. Notre Dame will

03:06win this game easy and cover this line. I can't bank it. Give

03:10me the six and a half. I think we trend to the under but I

03:13think Brom potentially strikes the upset. Again, 163 yards or

03:18less for Riley Leonard in all four games in a Notre Dame

03:22uniform. It is why the prop is only 160 and a half. He's been

03:26great with his legs. A buck 43. Two scores last week against

03:30Miami of Ohio. The century mark in three touchdowns against

03:34Purdue. To your point, Kevin, it's been such an interesting

03:37dynamic between Marcus Freeman in front of the Notre Dame

03:40faithful against bad teams and Marcus Freeman against good

03:43teams in South Bend. They're just five and seven against the

03:47spread as a home favorite under Marcus Freeman since he became

03:51the full-time head coach in 2022 but against ranked

03:54opponents eight and four straight up overall tied for

03:58the fifth best win percentage among teams that have played

04:01double digit games against ranked foes. What's the issue?

04:04Well, it's just like, you know, you mentioned I'm now

04:08remembering again. So, so Northern Illinois beats Notre

04:12Dame. Yeah. They take a bye week. Yeah. They lose to

04:15Buffalo at home. Terrible favorite now. I love it. I

04:20didn't say I was on Louisville. It doesn't make any sense. What?

04:22No, my point, my, my, my. What are you talking about? I thought

04:27you're talking yourself into Louisville. I love it. It's

04:30it's it's incredible though, Ben, that those things can be

04:34true. Yeah. That a Mac opponent shows up in South Bend with

04:38like, we're gonna rock and roll here and then a ranked team's

04:41like, ah, this is gonna be a tough night for us. That, that

04:43just, that can't be. Like, they're on upset alert when

04:46Louisville walks into this building. Oh, come on. It is

04:49crazy. Notre Dame this year at home, oh and two against the

04:52spread. Against Mac opponents, oh and two ATS. On the road, an

04:57upset victory outright as an underdog against a ranked A&M

05:01team in College Station and blew the doors off the

05:04Boilermakers. Sure. Sixty-six seven in West Lafayette.

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