Control of Senate, House at stake in US november election

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00:00Well, Election Day is in its final stretch with just over a month left now, and it's

00:08not just the presidential race, but also the race for the House and the Senate, which are

00:12in play.

00:13Currently, Democrats hold the Senate and the Republicans control the House.

00:17But that could, of course, all change on Election Day.

00:19Well, to unpack all that, our international affairs editor and former Washington correspondent,

00:24Ketevan Gojostani, is in the studio with me.

00:27Good to see you, Ketevan.

00:28Let's start with the House, where Republicans have one of the narrowest majorities in history.

00:33What's at stake there?

00:35Well, just like the presidential race that will likely be determined by seven battleground

00:41states, only a small portion of the races for the House are actually going to be determining

00:49the outcome.

00:50You have 435 seats.

00:52All of them are up for election.

00:56And the Cook Political Report has rated these races, 366 out of those 435 are solidly Democratic

01:08or Republican.

01:09That means that there's absolutely no suspense as to who is going to win them.

01:13Then you have the likely races, 26 of them are rated likely.

01:18That means that right now they're not competitive.

01:20They're clearly either for Democrats or for Republicans.

01:23And bar a last minute surprise, that won't change.

01:27And finally, you have 43 seats that are actually considered as being competitive.

01:32You have those who are leaning Democrat, 13 of them.

01:36That means the Democrats have a slight edge.

01:39Six are leaning Republican, but that leaves 24 races that are called toss-ups, meaning

01:45that both sides have equal chances of winning, which shows that it is pretty, pretty close.

01:51And just a few dozen races are likely going to determine the outcome and who controls

01:57the House.

01:58And right now, most of the projections are leaning a little bit towards the Democrats

02:04to be able to regain control of the House.

02:08But even if they manage to do that, because the Republican majority right now is so small,

02:14they wouldn't need that many seats.

02:16But if they do, it will likely be once again, a very slim majority.

02:21And that is something that we've seen in the past several cycles, that whoever controls

02:25the House controls it, but very nearly.

02:29And what about the Senate, where only a third of the seats are up for grabs?

02:32Yes, this year, that means 34 seats out of the 100 Senate seats are up for elections.

02:41And Democrats, they're holding a very tiny majority, 51 to 49, thanks to the four independents

02:48that caucus with them, which means that vote with the Democrats.

02:51But according to the Cook Political Report ratings, there are only eight Senate races

02:57that are actually competitive.

02:59And we see them on that map there.

03:01You have four of them that lean Democratic, slight edge for the Democrats.

03:06Those are in blue, like Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, might remember those states

03:11because these are also battleground states in the presidential election.

03:16Then you have two that lean Republican, the red ones, Montana and Texas, and two that

03:21are rated as toss-ups, meaning that it's a 50-50 race there in Michigan and Ohio.

03:28There, it seems that the Republicans have a little bit of an edge.

03:31Why?

03:32Because in these eight competitive races, seven of them are Democrat incumbents or Democrat

03:39defense.

03:40Democrats need to defend seven of these competitive races, and they need to win these seven if

03:46they want to try to hold on to that majority in the Senate.

03:51But right now, what the projections are showing is a slight edge for the Republicans to take

03:56back control of the Senate, likely with a very slim majority, again, 51 to 49.

04:02But another likelihood is that we will get a 50-50 Senate like we had in 2020, and that

04:08will throw it back to who wins the White House, because the vice president and also

04:12the president of the Senate.

04:14And that means that a 50-50 Senate, it's the vice president that has the tie-breaking vote.

04:19And that means that it could also determine who gets control of the Senate there.

04:25But as you see, just like in the presidential race, things are very tight and things are

04:29going to be decided by a very tiny fraction of the actual races.

04:35And just how important is it for a president that his party controls Congress?

04:39Well, obviously, it's important to have your party control Congress because that makes

04:45just life much more easier for you.

04:48It's easier to get legislation through because whoever controls the House and the Senate

04:54can put those bills up on the floor, get them to vote, get them more easily passed without

04:59having to compromise as much with the other side.

05:04But the Senate control is also very important for other things, because the Senate confirms

05:10a lot of the political appointees, the political nominees.

05:14I'm talking about, for example, cabinet secretaries, ambassadors, as well as judges.

05:21We've seen that Joe Biden has used the fact that the Democrats were controlling the Senate

05:26to push through a record number of federal judges, more than 200 by now.

05:32So that is very important.

05:34If the Republicans take control of the Senate, they can block or heavily restrict the number

05:39of those political nominees that get confirmed by the Senate.

05:44And of course, when you're talking about judges, it's not just the federal ones.

05:47If there is a vacancy in the Supreme Court, whoever controls the Senate will have a big

05:52say in whether or not that seat gets filled and by which president.

05:56Right.

05:57Thank you very much for breaking that down for us, our international affairs analyst

05:59Ekaterina Gorgiastani.

06:00Well, that brings you up to date on our daily segment on the U.S. presidential race.

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