'October Surprises' in US elections

FRANCE 24 English

With the US presidential election just over a month away, and polls showing a very tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, we take a look at "October Surprises" and how these unexpected political bombshells have impacted previous elections. We also discuss whether they may, or may not, swing voters this year. Read more‘October Surprise’: The US election phenomenon that can sway a presidential raceThis Entre Nous aired on Paris Direct, October 3, 2024. A programme produced by Amanda Alexander, Marina Pajovic and Georgina Robertson.  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

Transcript

00:00With the U.S. election now just a little over a month away and with polls showing a very

00:04tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, many wonder if this year there will

00:09be an October surprise.

00:11Solange Mougin is with me now on set to break down what exactly that means and the history

00:16and the potential impact of these October surprises.

00:19But first of all, Solange, where did this term even come from?

00:22Well, the U.S. elections are always held on the first Tuesday that follows the first Monday

00:28of November or between November 2nd and November 8th.

00:31And this year it is the 5th and any major unexpected event in the month prior to the

00:36election which could sway voters' votes, it is pegged as an October surprise.

00:42They generally fall into three categories, a sudden diplomatic event, a political scandal

00:46from the past that blindsides the candidate, or a major domestic event like a natural disaster

00:53or an investigation.

00:55Now how did this notion of October surprise get its start?

00:59Well the term itself was actually initially a shopping term, a slogan according to the

01:04dictionary Merriam-Webster.

01:06And it was actually a good deal found in department stores along the lines of a Black Friday.

01:12But it was during the 1980 presidential campaign that October surprise became the October surprise

01:17that we know as we know it now.

01:19That year Ronald Reagan was running against Jimmy Carter and Reagan's team feared that

01:24the American hostages that were being held in Iran would be released before election

01:29day.

01:30It could then potentially help President Carter's chance of getting re-elected in essence that

01:35he was able to resolve what was at the time the main story in the papers.

01:39So Reagan's campaign manager preempted this risk.

01:42He issued a warning to the press saying Carter may have a potential October surprise up his

01:49sleeve.

01:50And in the end the hostages were released just minutes after Reagan was sworn in as

01:55president on January 20th, 1981.

01:58Now the timing of their release as well as a number of key testimonies including that

02:02of a former Iranian president have led many to believe that the Reagan campaign actually

02:08secretly negotiated with Iran for the release to come after election day, going behind the

02:14back of the president's negotiations.

02:16This is just a theory as congressional inquiries did not find enough evidence to prove that

02:22this happened.

02:23So that one might be the most famous, but there have been a number of October surprises

02:26both before and after 1980.

02:28Give us some more examples.

02:29Well, one of the reasons that the Reagan team may have been so skittish was because of these

02:35precedents including one on October 26th, 1972 when President Nixon's security advisor

02:40Henry Kissinger, he announced, quote, that peace was at hand in the Vietnam War.

02:45It would actually end in 1975.

02:47But the move is thought to have added to Nixon's landslide against McGovern, which was by 18

02:54million votes.

02:55It's one of the biggest landslides ever.

02:57So there is a sense that October surprises, they do or can have an effect.

03:01And ever since the 1880s, there have been examples of them.

03:04Some of the older ones involve rumors of branded slaves, liaisons, fake letters.

03:10But for the 21st century, it's 2016 that is a stellar example.

03:14Former events in 28 days may have shifted voters' views against, both for and against

03:19Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

03:20They are Trump's tax returns showing $900 million in losses that they were released.

03:25WikiLeaks began publishing hacked emails by the Clinton campaign, the recordings of Trump

03:32boasting about groping women surfaced.

03:36And in what is to be considered the major one, the director of the FBI, James Comey,

03:41he said that he was resuming an investigation into Clinton's email server.

03:46We will never know exactly how many votes were lost or gained by either by any of these

03:51events or by either side, but they can and did influence voters.

03:55OK, we're still very early at the start of October 2024 for this year.

03:59Have there been any October surprises so far?

04:02Well, time will tell, of course.

04:04These are history things.

04:05But to get a sort of full sense after the fact.

04:09But there are possible contenders that may or may not have an effect.

04:12When it comes to the first category of October surprises, the international or the international

04:17say the conflict in the Middle East could sway voters, especially if the U.S. is forced

04:22into fighting with Iran and if the war sends gas prices or creates an energy crisis.

04:27A political scandal from the past could also sway people.

04:31Here the continued discussion of Trump's 2020 loss could hurt him or another scandal

04:36could surface.

04:37And then in regard to domestic news, both of the candidates' responses to Hurricane

04:41Helene could make an impact, as could the Docker strike if it really disrupts the day-to-day

04:47economy for Americans.

04:49There is a counterargument here, though.

04:51Some analysts say that October surprises no longer have the same impact that they once

04:55did, that two things have sort of taken the wind out of the sails of these unexpected

05:01events.

05:02First, that many voters now vote early, so potentially before the October surprises.

05:07And second, American voters are increasingly loyal to their parties.

05:11That number of undecided voters has decreased.

05:14But nonetheless, these unexpected bombshells, while they are something that campaigns and

05:19campaign managers are not only jittery about, but also something that they planned for in

05:23a just-in-case, there is a little or a big last-minute surprise.

05:27All right.

05:28It's fascinating stuff.

05:29I always love learning about history with you, Solange.

05:31Thanks so much.

05:32Thank you, Solange Mougin, there with the October surprise.

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