US election: 'Debate is probably the last shot campaigns have to convince undecided voters', expert says

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00:00Welcome to Apropos.

00:04The stakes couldn't be higher.

00:06Following weeks of personal attacks on the Democratic candidate,

00:10Kamala Harris is set to come face-to-face with her rival for the White House

00:14in just a few hours' time in a clash that could prove pivotal.

00:18They're meeting for what could possibly be their only TV debate of the campaign

00:22to showcase their starkly different visions for the country

00:26after a tumultuous summer in a contest that could come down

00:29to tens of thousands of votes in a handful of states.

00:33Even a small shift in public opinion could alter the outcome of the election.

00:37With the latest on the highly anticipated clash between Harris and Donald Trump,

00:41here's Antonia Kerrigan.

00:45Extremely tight in the polls, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are now counting down

00:49to their live debate in Philadelphia.

00:52The format of the showdown has been the result of much negotiation.

00:5590 minutes of debate time on ABC News with no live audience in the room,

01:00structured by moderators asking questions,

01:03and each candidate afforded a fixed allowance of answer time,

01:06rebuttal time and follow-up, clarification or response time.

01:10Candidates will be armed with only pen, paper and a bottle of water,

01:14and there will be no lifelines.

01:16Prepared notes are strictly prohibited,

01:18as is consulting with campaign staff during the ad breaks.

01:21The date and host channel were agreed on in May by the Trump and Biden campaigns.

01:26But after wrangling in recent weeks,

01:28it's almost a surprise the debate is going ahead at all.

01:31In early August, Republican candidate Donald Trump said he was pulling the plug,

01:35soon after it became apparent that his opponent would be Vice President Harris

01:39instead of outgoing President Biden,

01:42calling instead for an alternative date on Fox News.

01:45The former president confirmed his participation at the end of August,

01:49but has continued to insist the process is rigged against him,

01:52like at a town hall on the Fox News channel last week.

02:15Meanwhile, his opponent appears quietly confident.

02:20Despite not having entirely got her way either.

02:23Originally, the Biden campaign demanded that mics be off,

02:26except when the candidate has the floor,

02:28perhaps for fear that Biden be distracted by interruptions.

02:32But the Harris campaign wanted both mics on,

02:34so the former prosecutor could shine by shutting down any interruptions

02:38and put the spotlight on any loss of composure by her opponent.

02:42Her campaign eventually relented on the demand,

02:44but put it in writing that they consider the mics off rule

02:47puts her at a disadvantage.

02:50For more on the debate, we're joined now by Jordan Cash,

02:53Assistant Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University.

02:57Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Jordan.

03:01Firstly, opinion polls suggesting the race is neck and neck.

03:04Just how pivotal is this debate and what are you expecting

03:08in terms of how the two candidates will perform?

03:11It is quite pivotal, given how close the polls have been lately.

03:15And the fact that this might be the only debate that the two candidates have.

03:19So this is really the only chance that Americans will have,

03:22that we know of, to see how they'll perform.

03:25And especially for, I would say, Kamala Harris,

03:28I think there's a bit more at stake,

03:29given that she hasn't done many media appearances.

03:32She hasn't really gone off script.

03:34So this might be the only chance that Americans have to see Kamala Harris

03:38and how she performs under pressure without a teleprompter.

03:41I think it's a little bit less for Trump,

03:43but definitely with the polls as close as they are,

03:45this might be the one opportunity that either campaign has to break away.

03:49As to what we should expect, I would anticipate that, as was mentioned earlier,

03:53having the mics off will probably help Trump.

03:55It will help him be more disciplined,

03:57like he was in the first debate against Joe Biden.

04:00I would also anticipate that Trump is likely to try to tie Harris

04:04more to the Biden administration,

04:06to really emphasize that the policies of the Biden administration

04:09are the Biden-Harris policies,

04:12particularly on immigration, inflation, the economy generally.

04:16With Harris, I would expect her to focus more on character issues,

04:19to the extent that she's going to focus on policy.

04:21I would imagine she's going to emphasize Trump's positions,

04:25mainly previous positions on abortion,

04:27since Trump has tried to moderate in recent weeks,

04:29but also introducing herself

04:32and trying to draw a personality contrast with Trump.

04:36That so far has been her main line in the campaign,

04:39to show herself as what's often called the vibe shift or good vibes candidate.

04:44I imagine she'll try to do that again

04:46and emphasize Trump's abrasive personality

04:50and perhaps even bring up his felony convictions from a few months ago.

04:54Do you think she's likely to come under pressure then for backtracking,

04:57as some would have it, over liberal policies she's previously championed?

05:02If we talk about things like fracking, immigration, nationalizing health insurance,

05:08how do you think that's going to play for her?

05:10Yeah, I imagine that will be a big part of the debate.

05:14Trump in particular, I think, is going to focus on that

05:16and try to demonstrate that Harris has, you might say,

05:22changed or flip-flopped on the issues a fair bit.

05:25Considering that Harris, again, hasn't been out in public that much in an unscripted way,

05:30and when she has been asked on these questions,

05:32like at her CNN interview about a week ago,

05:36she didn't have a great answer for it.

05:38She's really going to have to figure out how to answer for these perceived inconsistencies,

05:45why the Harris running now in 2024 is different from the Harris that ran in 2019-2020,

05:52because Trump is going to hammer her on that.

05:54I imagine she really needs to have a clear answer

05:57if she's going to try to introduce herself to the American public

06:00while she's under pressure and draw that contrast with Trump.

06:04What about policy issues?

06:06Who do you think is likely to be stronger when it comes to things like the economy,

06:09immigration, abortion?

06:11Do you expect that we're going to see a lot of detail revealed

06:14in those particular areas during the debate?

06:17I honestly would not look for a lot of detail.

06:20So far, neither candidate has been very specific on their plans

06:24for any of those policy areas.

06:26I will say when it comes to the polling, right now,

06:28Trump is leading on who Americans trust for the economy,

06:32for inflation, for immigration,

06:34while Harris leads on who Americans trust to handle abortion issues.

06:38So I wouldn't imagine that there's going to be terribly much specifics,

06:42but they're definitely going to play to their strengths.

06:45How would you defeat a debater like Donald Trump?

06:48His performance, it did go under the radar during the debate against Joe Biden,

06:52following that catastrophic debate for Joe Biden,

06:55but it's going to be an entirely different ballgame this evening, isn't it?

07:00It certainly is, and that's a big question.

07:02How do you defeat Donald Trump in a debate?

07:05So far, perhaps the best strategy and the one that it seems Harris might go,

07:10based on some of the rumblings and rumors going around,

07:13is that really the only way you beat Donald Trump in a debate

07:16is to let him defeat himself.

07:18That is more or less what happened in 2020 when he debated Joe Biden,

07:22that he came in very aggressive,

07:25as I think most acknowledge, too aggressive in his debates with Joe Biden,

07:29and that really turned a lot of Americans off.

07:31So I would imagine, and I think that's why Harris wanted the hot mics on,

07:34so then Trump could, again, kind of let him talk, let him interrupt,

07:39let him get rattled, and he tends to maybe not be as cohesive

07:46or as presidential when he gets in such a position.

07:51So I imagine Harris is going to have a very difficult time doing that

07:54with the mics off and without a live audience.

07:57The stage is kind of set up against her in that way.

08:00But she's going to have to find a way to rattle Trump

08:03and get off his game a little bit, get him off balance.

08:07And are we likely to see, do you think, Harris the prosecutor

08:11go after Trump the felon?

08:13And if she does take that stance, do you think it risks making her look

08:17like she's coming across as being less presidential?

08:21I wouldn't necessarily say that.

08:23I do think we're going to see Harris take that line of attack.

08:26She's been doing that in her speeches recently.

08:28I don't know that it would make her seem less presidential

08:32insofar as she tries to make that case.

08:36It would, I think, remind Americans that Trump is, again,

08:39a controversial figure, has had these legal problems.

08:42Trump, I think, would, and that might be one way to rattle him,

08:46because I think Trump is very defensive over what he sees

08:49as politically motivated legal attacks.

08:53So that might be one way to do it.

08:55I don't think it will make Harris look presidential,

08:57but it may take the focus off of what Americans are probably

09:00more interested in, which is to hear what she's actually

09:02bringing to the table.

09:04And those Americans, they will remember how Donald Trump

09:06came across when he debated against Hillary Clinton

09:09last time round.

09:11Do you think he's in danger of damaging his support

09:14among female voters this time if he comes across

09:17as badgering his opponent?

09:19He has been quite critical of Kamala Harris in recent weeks.

09:23Yes, and that's the risk to Trump.

09:26And again, I think one of those things that if you get him

09:28off balance and rattle him and he starts making personal attacks,

09:31that's the risk.

09:33For Trump, he really needs to focus on the policy issues

09:36where polls say he is stronger than Harris, tying Harris

09:40to what are perceived as unpopular policies

09:43of the Biden administration.

09:45If he gets into the personal stuff, starts going after

09:47Harris personally, I think that's where he does start

09:50to look unpresidential.

09:52He looks like he's badgering, as you said, and risks making

09:55her look like the more presidential candidate,

09:58the one who's cool under fire.

10:00And do you think the debate could end up swinging voters

10:02in any particular direction?

10:04I guess that is the big question.

10:07It comes just days before early voting gets underway

10:10in certain states.

10:12I think so.

10:14Like I said earlier, this is likely to be the only time

10:17that we see these two on the same stage, unscripted,

10:21and actually speaking with each other.

10:24I think for a lot of Americans who are undecided,

10:28this is where they're going to make up their minds.

10:30And with early voting starting so soon, this is probably

10:33the last shot that either campaigns have to really

10:36make a breakaway.

10:38Of course, there's a long time until November,

10:41but with early voting coming up, if you want to put yourself

10:44in a more secure position, this is the time to do it.

10:47And, John, do you think there'll be a clear winner,

10:49if we were talking to you this time tomorrow evening,

10:52will there be a clear winner coming out of this debate,

10:54do you believe?

10:56That's a very good question.

10:58I hesitate to say there'll be a clear winner,

11:01but I would not be surprised if there is a clear winner.

11:05I think it's going to come down to which candidate

11:08keeps their cool, is able to stay on message,

11:13not get rattled by the other candidate.

11:15And whoever can do that, I think, will look like the winner.

11:20Who do you think that winner is going to be,

11:22if we're going to put it to you?

11:25Oh, man, if you had to put it to me now,

11:27I will say given Trump's track record,

11:29I think he's coming in from a position of strength.

11:31The fact that Harris has not had a lot of these unscripted moments,

11:34and when she has, she hasn't done particularly well.

11:38The debates in 2019, when she was running for president

11:41for the 2020 cycle, didn't go well for her.

11:44So history, I would say, would give the edge to Trump.

11:49But, again, that's with limited information on what Harris can do.

11:53And we've never seen her in a one-on-one debate like this since 2020,

11:57and she did fairly well against Mike Pence.

12:00If I had to pick one, I'd say the edge is to Trump.

12:03But that's very, very slight.

12:06We'll find out how it all plays out in a few hours' time.

12:08Jordan, thank you so much for joining us.

12:10That's Jordan Cash, Assistant Professor of Political Science

12:13at Michigan State University.

12:16Well, that is it from us for now.

12:18Do stay with us, though.

12:19We'll be back shortly with more world news.

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