Penn State vs. Illinois: Big Ten Showdown Analysis

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00:00Let's get to our second ranked versus ranked game of this Saturday.

00:07It's number nine, Penn State hosting number 19, Illinois in Happy Valley.

00:12Although a top 20 tilt have a 17 and a half point spread in favor of Penn State.

00:19You see the total it's at 48 and a half up by a full point from where the number was

00:24earlier this week.

00:26Is it too many points for a game with a total sub 50 and a matchup between two top 20 Big

00:32Ten programs?

00:33So funny enough, I'm on Illinois in the game, but I don't have an issue with the number.

00:38I don't think that Illinois is being disrespected on this spread at all.

00:43This is an Illinois team that went to Nebraska, got you about double digits.

00:47Is Penn State double digits better than Nebraska?

00:50We're doing some spread math.

00:51Again, probably.

00:53I still have some hesitations on the Nittany Lions.

00:55So on three game sample size, they have with a pair of Mac teams and then the West Virginia

01:01route.

01:02But I think we're seeing that the Mountaineers are somewhere in between last year's preseason

01:07expectations and this year's preseason expectations.

01:11I just James Franklin does not play a lot of ranked teams in the Big Ten this year.

01:17That might change.

01:18He usually just plays Michigan and Ohio State, loses to Michigan, Ohio State, handles business

01:24against everyone else.

01:27Last year they also played a ranked Iowa team, 31-0, that final score.

01:30I know they covered.

01:31It was an odd game.

01:32That was also the worst version of that Iowa offense.

01:36I think Altmaier has enough juice here, Joe, to stay inside.

01:39You're thinking about Deacon Hill.

01:40I can see it on your face.

01:41Me too.

01:42I miss the kid.

01:43I miss the kid.

01:44You talk tough.

01:45You want to get involved.

01:46Look up a couple numbers.

01:47All right, guys.

01:48Guard's a little light today.

01:49We might be added.

01:51I think Altmaier has shown enough that they can backdoor a big number like this.

01:56No beef with the number, but I did play the Illini.

01:57No, I like it as well.

01:59I was thinking of last year because we watched that game.

02:01That was the noted game against Ohio State.

02:04That was a 13 and a half point number.

02:06Penn State won.

02:07It was a wet track, but that offense was terrible for Iowa.

02:10Don't get me started.

02:12But I'm with Kevin in regards to Altmaier.

02:14We talk about the completion percentage, especially last week against Nebraska, 77%, over 200

02:21yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions is thrown, 10 touchdowns on the year, no turnovers.

02:26And more importantly for me, I talked about it with you as well.

02:29That's secondary for Illinois.

02:31Very opportunistic.

02:32They played good teams already, Dillon, Rayola, and Nebraska.

02:36They played Kansas.

02:37So they have two quality games under their belt.

02:40They four seven interceptions already on the season.

02:43That travels well.

02:44And I just think they're playing with house money.

02:47They lost this game in Champaign by 17 points last year.

02:50I think a lot of people are saying, ah, why is Penn State favored?

02:54They're deserving.

02:55They're a dominant home team.

02:56But they didn't look dominant against Bowling Green, I'll tell you that.

02:59They got abused in regards to that.

03:01I think Illinois is going to be in this game from start to finish.

03:04One of my better picks.

03:05I like the points.

03:06That game against Bowling Green is nearly a five touchdown favorite.

03:09One of just five times since the start of 2022 that James Franklin's crew has not covered

03:15when it's expected to win.

03:17They've been underdogs to Michigan and Ohio State.

03:19But as a favorite since the start of the 2022 campaign, nobody in college football better

03:25than the Nittany Lions covering a number, 19-5-1 against the spread.

03:30Few better than Burt.

03:32That's Brett Bielema and the Illini covering numbers as an underdog, 14-8 against the spread

03:38since Bielema took the reins in Champaign in 2021.

03:42Nine outright victories tied for the fourth most at the FBS level of outright underdog

03:48wins for a program in the country in that span.

03:52And Illinois, Joe, one of two programs this year with multiple ranked wins.

03:57It's the Illini and the Volunteers of Tennessee.

04:00I do want to flip it back to you, though, because let's talk offense.

04:03We understand Penn State's defense, despite the struggles against Connor Baselak and the

04:07Falcons of Bowling Green, is still going to be one of the best in the Big Ten, perhaps

04:11one of the best nationally as well.

04:13Where they needed to take strides was at the quarterback position and offensively.

04:18And so far, we have seen that out of Drew Aller, a completion percentage on the rise

04:22and the second-best passer rating in college football so far this year.

04:26If Penn State is going to win comfortably in state college today, what does Drew Aller

04:30and the Nittany Lions' offense do against the Illini?

04:33Well, I think they need to run the football, establish the line of scrimmage as well with

04:36Singleton and Allen, and have Aller work off of play action.

04:39And that offense is clicking and humming on all cylinders.

04:42They're running the football consistently and staying in short third downs.

04:46I do not believe that if they put the ball into Aller's hands and say, hey, kid, throw

04:51it 45 times in regards to this matchup, that's a recipe to cover and win this game.

04:57I think they'll be at a huge disadvantage.

04:59I'm still not sold on Drew Aller, Ben, in a big spot.

05:02I know he dominated West Virginia.

05:04But again, this team in Illinois, their expectation was four and a half, five wins this year.

05:10They're already four and 0.

05:11They're undefeated.

05:12And again, there's certain teams we just talked about that play certain programs very tough,

05:17especially in Happy Valley.

05:19We know about the nine overtimes.

05:21But typically, it's when Illinois is under 500, right?

05:24They have an opportunity to really go undefeated and make some noise.

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